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With the fourth Bitcoin halving just 12 days away, the community is buzzing with anticipation, speculating on the potential for Bitcoin to breach the significant $100,000 threshold. Joe Consorti of Theya Research has offered a comprehensive analysis, diving into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s current market position and the factors that might catapult its value to new heights.
This event, a cornerstone in Bitcoin’s design to halve the rewards for mining new blocks every four years, historically triggers a bullish momentum, and the present scenario appears to be aligning with past precedents.
The Significance Of Bitcoin’s Consolidation Phase
Consorti’s analysis titled, “Bitcoin’s 4th Halving Is [12] Days Away, and $100,000 Isn’t Much Further Behind It”, begins with a deep dive into Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation phase, which he argues is a critical period that precedes a potential bull run.
“Bitcoin continues its consolidation. In keeping with its previous phases of consolidation at $30k and $40k, BTC spends several weeks at key psychological price levels exchanging hands between buyers and sellers before advancing higher,” Consorti stated on X.
He emphasizes that this is the sixth week of Bitcoin’s consolidation above $60,000, marking the least volatile period at this price level and following a new all-time high. This, according to Consorti, signals a strong market confidence that could be the foundation for the next surge.
The analysis further explores the broader market dynamics, particularly the correlation breaks within the current cycle that have made the stock market an unreliable indicator of US economic sentiment. “The market at large has experienced massive correlation breaks this cycle […] This has a great deal to do with businesses extending their debt maturity during 2021 when rates were still low, and the US Treasury’s massive crisis-level fiscal deficit,” Consorti explains.
He argues that these factors have contributed to the decoupling of traditional economic indicators from the stock market’s performance, inadvertently benefiting asset prices, including Bitcoin.
The Role Of ETFs And The Spot Market
A significant portion of Consorti’s analysis is dedicated to the behavior of Bitcoin ETFs and their interaction with the spot market.
Despite a slowdown in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, the volume remains robust, indicating a healthy market. “This was one of the lowest weeks yet for BTC ETF inflows, although when you net in the outflows they are still healthy compared to previous weeks,” Consorti notes, suggesting that ETF shares are actively exchanging hands, mirroring the consolidation seen in the spot market.
This interplay between ETFs and the spot market, according to Consorti, provides a stable foundation for Bitcoin’s price, further solidifying the case for an impending bull run. “The funding rate is extremely muted, and we’re still at the same price [around $70,000]. In this period of consolidation, the spot market has really taken control of Bitcoin price action. This will mean more stable footing for the ensuing bull run, raising my confidence further that this consolidation is preceding a move higher rather than lower,” Consorti concluded.
Expert Consensus On The Bullish Outlook
Consorti’s optimistic forecast is echoed by other industry experts, who have also shared their bullish predictions. CRG, another renowned analyst, emphasized the significance of Bitcoin’s recent performance, stating, “Great weekly close. Fresh all-time highs this week,” indicating a positive momentum that could be sustained in the post-halving period.
Great weekly close
Fresh all time highs this week
Source: my plums pic.twitter.com/wyxwomdDjZ
— CRG (@MacroCRG) April 8, 2024
TechDev, a crypto analyst, highlighted a rare pattern in Bitcoin’s trading history: “It doesn’t happen often. Bitcoin closed 2 consecutive months over the upper Bollinger band. Each time it has then doubled within 3 months before the next red candle.” This historical pattern, if repeated, could potentially drive Bitcoin’s price way beyond $100,000.
It doesn't happen often.#Bitcoin closed 2 consecutive months over the upper Bollinger band.
Each time it has then doubled within 3 months before the next red candle. pic.twitter.com/veOOOmT8Id
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) April 7, 2024
Daan Crypto Trades provided a technical perspective, focusing on Bitcoin’s resistance levels and potential targets: “Thoses previous ‘resistances’ didn’t end up putting much of a fight. It’s just the previous all-time high that’s making the price stall for the time being. Targets above are ideas for price discovery if we can leave this area behind us.” Daan’s targets are the 1.272 Fib at $83,562, the 1.414 Fib at $91,164 and the 1.618 Fib at $102,085.”
#Bitcoin High Timeframe Level Cheat Sheet ✍️
Thoses previous "resistances" didn't end up putting much of a fight. It's just the previous all time high that's making price stall for the time being.
Targets above are ideas for price discovery if we can leave this area behind us. https://t.co/AeP9vzOk7M pic.twitter.com/BWvcg8EjLE
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) April 7, 2024
At press time, BTC traded at $69,739.
BTC price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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