2027: Split in APC deepens

…as opposition forces rally around Buhari

A visit on December 11 by Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, the Ooni of Ife, to former Nigerian President, Muhammadu Buhari in his home town of Daura, has been followed, according to sources, by discreet visits by a number of other influential figures from the South West to the former President in a attempt to broker peace amid escalating rift between his camp and that of President Bola Tinubu, News Direct has gathered.

According to close sources, Buhari, understood to have lost patience with President Tinubu over his policies perceived to be anti North, especially the controversial tax reform bills currently before the National Assembly, is said to have recently criticized government in the presence of close confidants, and consequently, urged his supporters to look in another direction in 2027.

News Direct also gathered that Aisha, Buhari’s wife, who was instrumental to convincing her husband to back Tinubu after he initially opposed his ambition in favour of Ahmad Lawan, former senate president, has also begun to regret backing the former Lagos governor, while allegedly resolving to work against him in 2027.

The former First Lady, who struck a friendship with Remi Tinubu, the incumbent First Lady, in the lead up to the election last year, had reportedly lobbied to convince her husband to back Tinubu. And following Tinubu’s victory, he had allegedly refused to move back to Daura with her husband, expecting to get patronage from the new administration, which did not happen.

“Mrs. Buhari had refused to return to Daura with her husband, preferring to stay at her palatial residence in Abuja, had expressed regrets that after her support for Tinubu, her brother, Halilu, who was promised the FCT Minister, did not get the plum job, neither has he been considered for any other position nor any of her other nominees considered for positions,” noted Jackson Ude, a U.S based journalist, who had reported the death of former Army Chief, Taoreed Lagbaja, long before the authorities confirmed his passing.

“Close sources of the former First Lady told me Mrs. Buhari feel scammed that after all she was promised, she has, instead been humiliated as several overtures she recently made to see or speak with the President has been rebuffed.”

Ude noted that prior to the 2023 presidential election, the Buhari Presidency was largely divided as to whom to support, with the former president not keen on backing Tinubu until few months to the elections when he was eventually convinced by his wife and some northern governors, who feared that attempting to keep power in the North could cause implosion in the APC.

“After all she was promised, Mrs. Buhari is now in regrets that she has not been patronized enough to commensurate her actions that led to the Tinubu’s presidency,” Ude said.

“She recently and quietly returned to Daura to be with her husband, seething in regrets, awaiting the completion of Buhari’s House in Kaduna while vowing to work against Bola Tinubu’s re-elections in 2027.

“Mrs. Buhari’s position aligns with that of her husband, who has quietly and secretly criticized Tinubu’s government, urging his supporters to look another direction in 2027.”

A source close to the former president confirmed to Business Hallmark that, “Things are really going south between Buhari and Tinubu.”

He noted that while consultations had been ongoing for sometime, there’s been more urgency recently following Tinubu’s introduction of the four tax reform bills, some provisions of which have been opposed by many political figures in the North, including governors and senators.

“The tax bills seem to the last stroke,” he said. “Tinubu has initiated some moves to broker peace, but that’s going to be the contentious topic.”

Speaking further, he said, “Buhari is upset about the way Tinubu is running the country, particularly with how he seems to be deliberately undermining the North while fixing people from the South in almost every strategic position in government.”

Earlier in June, leading northern political figures, such as Buhari; former vice president, Atiku Abubakar; former Kaduna and Kano State governors, Nasir El-Rufai, governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, respectively, among others, who were hitherto in different political platforms, held strategic meetings in, what Business Hallmark gathered, were part of an ongoing political realignment in the region ahead of 2027.

Precisely on June 22, Atiku, accompanied by some Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stakeholders, visited Buhari at his home in Daura, Katsina State, to, as he put it, “pay a courtesy call and offer Sallah homage.”

The former vice president had noted in a post on X after the visit that, “My trip to Katsina today also afforded me the opportunity to pay my condolences to the family of my late friend and associate, Alhaji Lawal Kaita, over the loss of the matriarch of the family, Hajiya Yalwa Kaita, where I was received by the Governor of Katsina, Dikko Umar Radda. I also paid courtesy visits to the Emir of Katsina, HRH Abdulmumini Kabir Usman, and the Emir of Daura, HRH Alhaji Farouk Umar Farouk.”

Earlier on June 19, Atiku also visited former Heads of State, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (rtd) and Gen. Abdusalami at their residences in Minna, Niger State.

Atiku was beaten to second place by Tinubu in the contentious 2023 presidential election. Buhari, then outgoing president, had backed the Tinubu, his party’s candidate, despite initially favouring a northern successor. But with Tinubu apparently determined to consolidate power at the centre to the detriment of the North, the former president, Business Hallmark gathered, is willing to close ranks with other stakeholders in the region to support a different candidate in 2027, with Goodluck Jonathan being the most favoured person.

Within the same period, El-Rufai, another prominent APC figure, who had been a staunch supporter of Tinubu in the election last year, but evidently felt betrayed after being left in the cold by the president, made moves of his own preparatory to 2027. On June 27, he received Kwankwaso, leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, who relying on massive Kano support, came fourth in the 2023 presidential election, at his home in Abuja, all of which builds up to a definite political realignment to challenge Tinubu in 2027.

“There is evidence of rallying of forces, regrouping of political forces from the North trying to use former President Buhari as a rally point in order to evict the government of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,”  Shehu Sani, former Kaduna Central Senator, had noted.

Sani, who cautioned against the move in the interest of national cohesion, remarked that the politicians, “hope to resurrect the political charms in the hearts of the masses and portray the government as the one that has been undermining the North and the one that has not been living up to his campaign promises.”

The harsh economic realities the country has faced since Tinubu assumed office on May 29 last year after he haphazardly removed fuel subsidy and floated the naira, has created mass discontent among the populace, as hunger continues to take its toll, more prevalently in the north, a region also gripped by insecurity manifested by terrorism, banditry and kidnapping right across the region.

Across social media, many northern influencers, who had been favourably disposed to the former Lagos governor, have turned their backs on him, vowing that it would be impossible for him to win the region in 2027.

“From my interactions here, the North appears ready truly to go against Tinubu in 2027,” said Chidi Anthony, an Abuja-based lawyer and political commentator. “It seems that they are shopping for a southern candidate that can beat Tinubu, and yes, Jonathan is going to be the best bait. Not only does he have good support in the South East and South South, he will also guarantee them power by 2031 because he’s only eligible for one term.”

Jonathan tipped

Former President Jonathan, who lost the presidency in 2015 to Buhari, had subsequently developed a friendship with the former president. His name had indeed featured prominently in the permutations ahead of 2023, but it didn’t materialize in the event. He has also developed good relationship with President Tinubu, who was the arrow head of the campaign that ousted him in 2015, and some analysts argue that given his nature, he’s unlikely to accept another presidential run.

“I do not see Jonathan accepting to run against Tinubu in 2027,” one analyst said. “He doesn’t have that strong character. Even now, you can’t really say whether he’s in APC or PDP. Besides, Tinubu’s South West are the kings of propaganda. If he accepts to run, they will use propaganda to destroy him.”

Others, however, see it differently. Evangelist Elliot Ugochukwu-Uko, founder of  Igbo Youth Movement (IYM) told Business Hallmark in an interview last week that it could be game over for Tinubu if the PDP fields Jonathan in 2027.

“If that happens,” he said , “Tinubu will be in real trouble. Nigerians from the six regions will greatly mobilize behind Jonathan. They know him. They know he is a good man. Moreover, he’ll do only one term. Jonathan is the greatest threat to Tinubu for 2027. That is if the PDP are wise enough to convince him and draft him. His humble disposition has earned him respect. He endured the insults and vilification without ever fighting back. Even those who attacked him regret fighting him. It will be like a hurricane. Jonathan is the only threat to Tinubu’s 2027 reelection.”

Beyond Jonathan, the idea of a joint ticket between Peter Obi and Atiku is being promoted within certain circles in the North, but that seems to be unlikely as neither the former Anambra State governor nor the former vice president will be willing to accept to deputize the other.

North Angry

The growing mass discontent with the Tinubu administration in the North has found expression in occasional destruction of his billboards and those of other APC leaders from the region. The EndBadGovernance protests held across the country in August, witnessed riotous scenes in the North, with some protesters urging the military to take over.

Recently, key northern socio-political bodies, such as the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and its youth wing, the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), which have recently voiced concerns about Tinubu’s re-election bid.

Alhaji Shettima Yerima, president of the AYCF, in an interview last week, affirmed that the North now regrets voting for President Tinubu in 2023, adding that the northern people are willing to work against his reelection in 2027 if he does not change the current situation of the country.

“In some quarters, there are certain regrets by the northern region. Don’t forget the eight years of Buhari’s administration brought nothing to the north. So, the expectation was so high that Tinubu knew where the problem lay, and someone like me, who had worked with him and taken him as a role model, l believed that he knew so much about the problems of this country and would approach the issues not as a military man but as a democrat and would be able to proffer solutions to them,” Shettima said in the interview with Vanguard.

“But the people are disappointed because they are not getting what they expected of him…. The North is angry with the government, but the government still has another opportunity in less than two years to turn things around.

“If he doesn’t do anything that will positively impact the lives of the people, some of us can gang up against him and put our vote where we know we can get better treatment. We will sit down with all stakeholders, arrive at a conclusion, and look for alternatives. Right now, it is too early to conclude that Tinubu has failed.”

Tinubu, who lost his home state of Lagos to Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party in 2023, had relied on the north, and allegedly the manipulation of the electoral process by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to win overall majority and become president. He will still need northern votes in 2027, and some analysts have wondered how he hopes go about it given that the north now appears unwilling to support him.

Indeed, given the mass discontent among Nigerians towards the Tinubu presidency, a carry-over from the anger of the younger generation, who felt let down by the conduct of the last election, but now compounded by rising inflation, job losses, poor economic outcomes and the general hunger and insecurity in the land, many observers have tended to support the idea that Tinubu will likely be a one term president.

But Tinubu started making his moves from his first day in office. And despite the widespread misgivings against his government, it may still be a tall order to unseat him, even with the north’s best efforts. Tinubu has within the first year of his administration, managed to consolidate hold on the South West, the zone, which for the first time, now feels the aura of being in power.

Presently, all the core security and economic structures of the country, ranging from headship of Customs, Immigration, Army, EFCC, among others, which used to be the exclusive preserve of the north, have been taken over by the the South West.

This contest for control of the country, keen observers have noted, is what will form the undercurrent of the 2027 political battle. President Tinubu, apparently with this in mind, has continued to deepen and consolidate South West’s roots in the mainstream of Nigerian politics.

It is, therefore, not entirely strange that some of the political voices in the region like PDP’s Chief Olabode George, Doyin Okupe, among others, who had hitherto worked against his presidential ambition, have all made u-turns.

A Divided North

For a region that had over the years maintained a grip on Nigeria’s polity, the 2023 election exposed what many had suspected was the weakening of the north as a political entity. The attempt by Buhari to chose his own successor was thwarted by ambitious governors from the region, who, apart from nursing individual ambitions of becoming vice president, genuinely feared that the future of the APC, if not the country itself, would be in jeopardy should the region attempt to retain power. Tinubu’s deep pocket, it must also be said, was a huge factor.

Abdullahi Adamu, then APC chairman, had apparently with Buhari’s blessings, attempted to foist then Senate President, Ahmad Lawan as APC presidential candidate, but the move not only collapsed, but also cost the former Nasarawa State governor, his seat as APC chairman.

Going into 2027, the reasoning within the emergent northern opposition, it seems, is that the region having been instrumental to Tinubu’s emergence as president, would still be able to vote him out. But if anything, the 2023 election showed that the north has become vulnerable and can hardly now act as one entity.

There is little doubt that anger is growing in the north, as much as the rest of the country, as economic and security challenges mount. And the inherent strengths of the region, such is its voting population and huge landmass cannot be wished away. But with huge financial war chest and power of incumbency, Tinubu is likely to still buy support in the region.

The decision of Tinubu to run a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 was politically expedient. It helped to rally the core Muslim North behind him. But the down side of the ticket is that it was a direct message to the Christians in the region that they are not North enough, when it comes to… CONTINUE READING.