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Litigation analyst Elliott Stein thinks Coinbase will win full dismissal of the SEC’s current lawsuit against the exchange.
Stein also correctly predicted Grayscale’s landmark victory over the SEC last year, which set the motion for spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this month. Coinbase’s argument, perceived as more persuasive, hinges on the investment needing to be in a business and not merely an ecosystem, and it should come with an enforceable obligation.
The perspective gained traction following a precedent set by the Ripple case, where the sale of digital assets on public exchanges was determined not to fit snugly within the established Howey test, a legal standard used to determine what constitutes an investment contract.
My colleague Elliott, a senior litigation analyst, believes that $coin has a 70% chance at victory over the SEC. Elliott went into the court room thinking a partial dismissal was likely and left thinking the full dismissal was his base case. https://t.co/2esr9LZMr3
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 19, 2024Stein forecasts that even if the lawsuit progresses, it could ultimately be escalated to the Supreme Court. There, it is anticipated that the definition might be narrowed, which would favor Coinbase. The exchange’s definition of “investment” is deemed strong enough to counter the SEC’s claims regarding staking. Also, the SEC’s allegations lack sufficient detail to establish that Coinbase acted in a broker capacity.
SEC sued Coinbase last June, alleging the exchange traded 13 tokens that act as unregistered securities. The court recently heard Coinbase’s dismissal request yesterday in the Southern District of New York. However, Judge Katherine Polk Failla was notably unsatisfied with the SEC’s stance and scrutinized the Securities Act of 1933.
