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Managing Director of Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited, Tunde Amolegbe
The Managing Director/CEO of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, Olatunde Amolegbe, has projected that a stable foreign exchange market and falling inflation rates could drive significant growth in Nigeria’s equities market in 2025.
Amolegbe, a former president of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers’ shared this outlook in Lagos on Thursday during the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria review of the 2024 economic activities and expectations for 2025, themed, “In-Depth Evaluation of the Capital Market in 2024 and Prognosis for 2025.”
He stated, “Either we experience a stable FX market, or we witness a situation where exchange rates begin to decline. If that happens, we expect it to positively impact the equities market.”
Highlighting the interplay between FX stability and inflation, Amolegbe noted that favourable movements in the FX market could lead to a gradual stabilisation and eventual decline in inflation rates.
“If inflation drops, it could prompt monetary policy authorities to either maintain current rates or start reducing them. A drop in interest rates would likely be another positive driver for the equities market,” he explained.
The investment analyst also addressed the recapitalisation of banks, stating that the process is expected to be largely completed by 2025, despite the official deadline being in 2026.
According to him, major banks are likely to finalise their recapitalisation processes and list their shares between 2025 and 2026.
He said, “We anticipate a much stronger banking sector capable of playing a larger role in economic development, which again should attract positive attention to the equities market.”
Amolegbe further mentioned the potential for major listings in the capital market, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Dangote Refinery, which he believes could stimulate investor interest.
On sectoral projections, he shared a positive outlook for the banking, industrial, and oil and gas sectors. He emphasised the potential impact of deregulation on oil and gas growth and identified the Dangote Refinery’s listing as a key development for the industrial sector.
Commenting on the agriculture sector, Amolegbe highlighted continued government investments and security improvements as growth drivers.
“Companies with significant export components in their products stand to benefit from favourable international product prices,” he added.
For consumer goods, he pointed to promising results from companies like Unilever, which have thrived due to limited reliance on FX and successful backward integration strategies.
Amolegbe concluded by reiterating his firm’s conservative investment approach, which prioritises stocks with strong growth prospects. “Our projections represent a data-driven analysis of the market. We are optimistic about delivering value to investors in 2025,” he said.
The outlook, according to Amolegbe reflects growing optimism in Nigeria’s capital market as stakeholders prepare for another pivotal year in the nation’s economic journey.
