Barcelona’s strategy to secure a top-eight finish and progress to Champions League knockouts

A victory against Crvena Zvezda on Wednesday in Belgrade has allowed Barcelona to enter the prestigious top eight for the first time in this year’s competition, securing a place among the top contenders for the knockout stages.

After four matches, Hansi Flick’s team currently sit in sixth place with nine points out of a possible 12. With the group stage now at its halfway point, the Catalans are calculating what it will take to secure a spot among the top eight.

New format, new calculations

As this year’s Champions League features a new format, there were no previous benchmarks to guide the team’s expectations.

Therefore, as SPORT reports, the Barcelona coaching staff decided against speculating too much about specific point thresholds and instead emphasised the importance of maintaining a strong goal difference, particularly given the increased likelihood of point ties with other teams.

And, it goes without saying that Barcelona have excelled in this regard: no team has scored more goals than them, and they boast the best goal difference in the competition, with +10.

Barcelona’s internal calculations suggest that an additional eight points should be enough to guarantee progression to the knockout rounds. This would bring their total to 17 points by the end of the group stage.

Securing eight points from their remaining four matches against Brest, Borussia Dortmund, SL Benfica, and Atalanta should ensure a top-eight finish. In practical terms, this would mean winning two matches and drawing two.

Of course, the team’s goal is to win all 12 points available from these matches, as head coach Flick and his staff remain focused on securing victories in every encounter.

A competitive final stretch

The final stretch of the group stage is expected to be highly competitive. While Barcelona have already navigated the challenge of facing Bayern Munich, there are still formidable teams remaining.

Brest have been performing exceptionally well, Borussia Dortmund are a top-tier team, and both Benfica and Atalanta have the potential to pose serious threats to any side.

The Blaugrana are mindful that the final few matches may be more challenging, particularly given the strength of their upcoming opponents and the current standings of other teams in their group.

In such a scenario, it is conceivable that seven points from the last four games might be enough to secure a direct spot in the knockout rounds, though this would depend on favourable results from other teams.

With a significant challenge still ahead, Barcelona’s objective remains clear: to win as many points as possible and finish in the top eight, ensuring a smooth path to the Champions League Round of 16.