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6 months ago
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BBC Sport asked football fans to ask some questions.
With less than three weeks of this 2023/24 Premier League season remaining, plenty to talk about.
Not least when it comes to Newcastle United.
BBC Sport Chief football news reporter Simon Stone has been answering the questions.
Here are a couple of Newcastle United related ones that have been put to BBC Sport, with Simon Stone giving his responses.
Question – ‘Do you think Eddie Howe’s achievements are being overlooked this season? Good chances of European football with what has been a bare bones squad.’
BBC Sport Chief football news reporter Simon Stone replying:
“It is the way of the modern game that Howe was lauded last season when he got Newcastle into the Champions League, but the same plaudits are not coming his way this season even though his side will probably finish in the top seven and secure some sort of European football.
“Funnily enough, if the seasons had been the other way round, people would be talking about what a solid job he has done with steady improvement.
“Yet, I suspect, given all the injuries he has had, Howe will be privately pretty pleased with how the campaign as a whole has gone.
“It is two decades since Newcastle last secured successive top half finishes. Even backed by Saudi PIF, that achievement is worthy of note.”
My view:
Any Newcastle United fan who doesn’t believe Eddie Howe has done an excellent job this season, in the circumstances, I find unbelievable.
For seven months (and counting) the number of unavailable players has been unprecedented. Yet as things stand, it is still mathematically possible that Newcastle United could finish fifth, only one place below last season’s outcome.
More realistically, Newcastle are now favourites to finish sixth ahead of the likes of Man U and Chelsea, which would be only two places below last season. Which would be a superb effort.
Maybe the best measure though is number of points. If Newcastle won their last four games, then that would mean 65 points, only six less than last season’s 71 points total. Leaving so many NUFC fans thinking if only Eddie Howe had been missing ‘only’ five or six first team squad players week after week, month after month, rather than double figures on so many occasions.
Question: What do you think are the odds of Newcastle holding on to Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak this summer?
BBC Sport Chief football news reporter Simon Stone replying:
“It is going to be difficult to keep both for two reasons.
“First, they have both proved themselves capable of playing at the highest level and while Newcastle’s Champions League hopes are not completely over, it would require both an improbable sequence of European results and Tottenham repeatedly losing games, which I don’t think it realistic.
“Then we come back to the old profit and sustainability question.
“In order to raise money to reinforce Eddie Howe’s squad and offer bigger contracts, players need to be sold. Which ones can generate the most profit? That tends to be homegrown players as they did not cost a transfer fee.
“But Isak and Guimaraes are two of Newcastle’s most valuable assets. And there are bound to be offers for them.
“It is a tricky one as I doubt Howe would want to sell, but if Newcastle keep them both, they will have done very well.”
My view:
My personal opinion, is that I don’t think either Bruno Guimaraes or Alexander Isak will be pushing for a move this summer. They obviously know the unprecedented number of missing players Eddie Howe has had to deal with and yet still a top six finish is on. So at the very least I think they would be happy to stay for the 2024/25 season, with Newcastle United very much capable of competing for at least top four, as well as competitive in domestic cup competitions AND in Europe, if a place in a European competition for next season is secured this month.
As for Eddie Howe and/or Newcastle United wanting / having to sell Alexander Isak and/or Bruno Guimaraes this summer, I simply don’t believe this is the case.
All clubs buy AND sell players, Newcastle United are no different.
These past 16 months have seen the likes of NUFC squad players Chris Wood, Jonjo Shelvey and Allan Saint-Maximin sold, to give Eddie Howe and Newcastle United the ‘headroom’, the ‘flex’, to be able to bring in the likes of Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes, Yankuba Minteh and Tino Livramento in 2023.
I am not saying Newcastle United players won’t need to be sold this summer, in order to help fund AND just as (more?) importantly give the PSR headroom for positive ambitious spending. However, why sell one or more of your best players, when you could sell a number of squad players instead?
For example, if Alexander Isak was sold for say £100m+, then Newcastle United would for sure be needing to spend £60m+ on a striker replacement, just to stand a chance of getting anywhere near close to giving us anything like the same that Isak gives. That would only give £40m or so profit on that trading, whilst for PSR purposes, Isak has only been here a couple of seasons and so those PSR benefits are not massive, in relative terms.
However, there are any number of squad players who wouldn’t be automatic first eleven choices next season, who could be traded AND in relative terms are more advantageous from a PSR point of view. The likes of Longstaff, Almiron, Murphy and others, could collectively give NUFC significant incoming funds and even greater comparative PSR ‘flex’ this summer. Plus, if new players are arriving this summer, then United will be looking to move some first team squad players on anyway.

 
