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1 month ago
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BBC Sport have been looking at the outlook for Newcastle United this coming season.
Their football statistician, Chris Collinson, having a dig into the date.
The man from BBC Sport has been looking at what happened in the 2023/24 season, then relating it to what is needed this time around.
So is he on the money with his conclusions…?
BBC Sport football statistician, Chris Collinson, has been having a look at Newcastle United ahead of the new 2024/25 season – 15 August 2024:
‘Dig into the data – what will season deliver?
‘Newcastle will be aiming to fly back up into the Champions League places this campaign… and while their attack from last season is already worthy of a top-four finish, their defence will have to improve.
The Magpies scored 17 more goals than when they finished fourth in 2022-23 despite actually taking 20 fewer shots. While that proves just how ruthless they were in front of goal, their xG shows they were still the best attack in terms of creating chances outside of the top three.
However, they were considerably worse defensively, conceding 29 more goals and facing 147 more shots. While a fully-fit Nick Pope should help improve that, Eddie Howe will need to find the right balance if St James’ Park is to welcome the likes of Paris St-Germain once again.’
My reflections on what the BBC Sport statistician has had to say
It is quite astonishing what Newcastle United achieved last season, when it comes to scoring goals.
United had an unprecedented season where injuries were concerned, the worst in the club’s entire history, easily the worst affected club in the Premier League.
To go from scoring 68 PL goals when finishing fourth in 2022/23, to 85 PL goals (105 in all competitions) last (2023/24) season, is beyond belief. The most goals NUFC have ever scored in a PL season.
No Premier League club conceded fewer PL goals than Newcastle’s total of 33 in 2022/23.
So to go to conceding 62 PL goals in the 2023/24 season, 29 more, sounds like a disaster.
However, this is really where the injuries took their toll.
Nick Pope is for me the best keeper in the Premier League, he conceded 16 goals in 15 PL starts last (2023/24) season, in the other 23 PL matches that he didn’t start, NUFC conceded 46.
The Newcastle United back four (Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn) started almost every match of the 2022/23 PL season, whilst last season it was only Schar who was the only one of the quartet who wasn’t significantly affected by injury.
On top of that, Joelinton was another to miss a significant part of the season and he is key to helping to protect the back four. Sandro Tonali another who would have been massive in that respect, the big summer 2023 signing ending up starting only a handful of PL matches before his suspension.
The other key senior signing last summer was Harvey Barnes, a freak injury restricting him to only a handful of PL starts.
We saw 20 year old Tino Livramento and 18 year old Lewis Hall brought in last summer as signings for the long-term and they were used sparingly as Eddie Howe got them trained up, far more will be confidently expected from both of them this coming season. Whilst Lloyd Kelly looks a great addition.
The injuries to Botman and Lascelles won’t see them able to return until some months into this new season, however, maybe the BBC Sport statistician should have been digging a little deeper, as there are far more causes for optimism this coming season, when it comes to believing that Newcastle United will be getting back far closer to that 2022/23 total of only 33 PL goals conceded. Whilst at the same time keeping up last season’s excellent goalscoring capability.

 
