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Bitcoin is currently at $83,000, having been as low as $76,800 on Tuesday. Is the bottom in? Is now a good time to start buying? Or could there still be one more flush-out to come?
Bitcoin has been tossed and turned on the waves of economic uncertainty, and buffeted by the winds of an unpredictable geopolitical climate for quite some time now. Will this continue, with Bitcoin going down to the all-important $70,000 level, or is a huge rally about to take place that will take the king of the cryptocurrencies back to the all-time high?
Economic headwinds
On the economic front, the new U.S. administration has inherited the biggest debt pile the world has ever seen. $8 trillion of which matures in 2025 alone.
President Trump’s tariff wars are causing havoc, both in the United States, and among its major trading partners. Surely, resolutions need to be found in order to get global trade back on its feet again.
The U.S. stock market is falling fast. President Trump has always boasted of a strong stock market, so it must be wondered if some kind of strategy is hidden within the application of such heavy tariffs.
Russia/Ukraine ceasefire potential at a delicate stage
From a geopolitical perspective, things are at an extremely delicate stage. U.S. officials have succeeded in bringing the Ukranians to the peace table in the form of a 30-day ceasefire. It just remains to be seen how the Russians will respond, and Vladimir Putin in particular.
Huge Bitcoin tailwind
For Bitcoin itself, putting aside the potential economic and geopolitical issues, things have never been better. Legislation is now set to go before Congress and the Senate, which will enshrine every citizen’s right to hold and transact in Bitcoin. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is to be established, and the proposed act will commit the US to buying 1 million BTC over a 5-year period.
Short-term: Bitcoin still in the claws of the bears
Source: TradingView
From a short-term perspective it can be seen that Bitcoin is still firmly in the claws of the bears. The steady roll-over from the $109,000 all-time high is still in force. The $BTC price fell out of a triangle pattern on Sunday, and has been down to test the bottom of the wedge pattern. A rally on Tuesday failed to get back to the breakdown point of the triangle, and it now looks as though the next corrective impulse could be about to begin.
Are we approaching the time when the $BTC price finally comes down and tests the major support? If the big rally to the upside is to take place, it would not be a surprise that the $70,000 horizontal support is retested first.
Long-term: Major support is close
Source: TradingView
Zooming out into the weekly time frame, the major support band can be seen with clarity. This stretches from $73,700, down to $68,500. In addition, if one draws the Fibonacci levels from the lowest wick out of the previous bull flag, up to the all-time high, the 0.618 Fibonacci comes within this band at $72,000. Drawing Fibonacci levels for the entire bull market puts the 0.382 Fibonacci precisely on top of the upper support band at $73,700. Coincidence?
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
