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The Fed’s FOMC minutes on Wednesday signaled a high chance of interest rate cut next month, which is considered bullish for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been attempting to mirror the ongoing bullish recovery set by Gold and traditional stock indexes. The flagship coin closed Wednesday, August 21, trading around $61k, signaling a potential bullish pump ahead. However, Bitcoin price is not yet out of the woods based on technical and fundamental aspects.
For instance, Bitcoin price has consistently closed below the 50 and 200 Moving Averages (MAs) since the August 5 crash, indicating the midterm bears are in control. Additionally, the 50 and 200 daily Moving Averages formed a death-cross for the first time since October last year.
Nevertheless, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded above the 50 percent level, indicating the potential flipping of the bears.
In the weekly time frame, Bitcoin price has been consolidating in an inverted triangular pattern, which often leads to further bullish continuation.
If Bitcoin price persists in a bearish outlook in August and September like in previous years, the flagship coin could retrace toward $50k before rebounding to a new all-time high.
However, the bearish sentiments could be invalidated if Bitcoin price consistently closes above $70k in the near term.
Institutional Investors on a Bitcoin Buying Spree
According to market data analysis from Coinglass, the supply of Bitcoin in centralized exchanges has continued to consistently drop in the past year. In the past seven days, a net outflow of 6k Bitcoins was registered in all the centralized exchanges.
Since March 14, the supply of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges dropped from 2.68 million to about 2.44 million today. During the same period, Bitcoin price has dropped from $72k to about $61k at the time of this writing.
The notable decline of Bitcoin supply on CEXs can be directly attributed to the rising demand from spot BTC ETFs in the United States. In the past two weeks, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs have registered a net cash inflow of about $210 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.
On Wednesday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF registered a net cash inflow of about $40 million, thus the total assets under management rising to around $55.96 billion.
75% of all #Bitcoin hasn’t moved in at least 6 months
Diamond hands are strong pic.twitter.com/xPzYPi60hC
— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) August 21, 2024
According to on-chain data analysis provided by Glassnode, approximately 75 percent of all Bitcoins have not moved in the last six months, indicating a significant shift from short-term holders to long-term investors.
Midterm BTC Price Expectations
Bitcoin price is expected to ultimately pave the way for a highly anticipated altseason in the near term. The recent approval of spot Ether ETFs in the United States and Spot Solana ETFs in Brazil have increased the odds of an Altseason in the near term.
Furthermore, BTC dominance has been forming a macro reversal pattern, after a notable uptrend in the past year.
Despite everything, #BTC is right around where it always is at this point in the market cycle pic.twitter.com/zO52x9tAtX
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024
Meanwhile, crypto researcher and analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that BTC price action is similar to the prior bull cycles. As a result, the crypto analyst expects a robust bullish outburst in the fourth quarter and next year.
