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This week, all eyes are on April's inflation data, as it could influence the central bank's monetary policy, which in turn could impact Bitcoin's price action.
Bitcoin (BTC) may have exited the post-halving “danger zone” and entered the accumulation phase, according to data shared by technical analyst Rekt Capital. He suggests that the selling pressure behind Bitcoin’s price is weakening.
The Post-Halving Bitcoin "Danger Zone" (purple) is officially over
And Bitcoin is celebrating with a good bounce from the Re-Accumulation Range Low support$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/3pvWKRAqNd pic.twitter.com/KRD2UNDZiT
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 13, 2024
Following the halving event, Bitcoin typically experiences a “danger zone” characterized by heightened volatility. In the 2016 cycle, Bitcoin’s value dropped nearly 18% in the three weeks that followed.
This specific downturn came back in this halving cycle, albeit with a mild 6.5% decline over the same period. However, this was briefly followed by a 15% surge, suggesting a strong exit from the “danger zone”.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading at nearly $62,600, marking a 3% increase in the last 24 hours. Rekt Capital notes that the $60,000 support level is crucial for the continuation of this upward trend, potentially leading to a return to the $68,000 mark.
“History suggests it means that Bitcoin will no longer produce downside volatility below its current Re-Accumulation Range,” Rekt Capital explained in his recent blog post. “The Bitcoin correction should be over and price should be able to maintain itself above $60,000 going forward.”
While historical trends do not guarantee future results, the current support level’s resilience is a positive sign for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
What to expect next?
A major focus this week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on Wednesday. Forecasts for the CPI and core CPI are 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target is 2% and current data shows inflation remains stubborn. Rates might stay high for a longer period unless inflation improves.
According to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, rising government debt and adjustments by the Fed and US Treasury are making alternative investments like Bitcoin more appealing. He predicts that Bitcoin’s price will exceed $60,000 and move to a period of relative stability between $60,000 and $70,000 by August.
The upcoming US presidential election could also influence Bitcoin’s value, according to Standard Chartered. The bank believes a potential win for Donald Trump could benefit Bitcoin’s value. Additionally, the US’s fiscal and monetary policy shift is seen as potentially favorable for Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered expects BTC’s price to reach $150,000 by year’s end and $200,000 by 2025.
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