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Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research estimates that the ETF inflows could spike to between $50 billion and $100 billion.
Despite widespread caution from analysts predicting a post-halving slump, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, is doubling down on his optimistic outlook, saying Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end and $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Before the US Securities and Exchange Commission greenlit several spot Bitcoin ETFs, Standard Chartered boldly predicted a fourfold surge in Bitcoin’s price by year-end. Kendrick reaffirmed this bullish forecast in a recent interview with Bloomberg BNN.
Explaining the reasons behind the notable lift, the analyst pointed to the growth of the US ETF market. According to him, flows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs could increase from the current $12 billion to between $50 billion and $100 billion.
His projections are partly based on the historical growth of the gold market following the introduction of gold ETFs in the US in 2004. When the gold ETF market matured, the price of gold increased approximately 4.3 times. Kendrick noted that a similar trajectory could happen with Bitcoin if the crypto ETF market matures in a comparable way, potentially within an 18-24-month timeframe.
The analyst expects that over time, as Bitcoin becomes a more accepted and accessible investment, demand for Bitcoin will increase, potentially pushing the price to his targeted range.
He suggested that investors eventually allocate 80% of their portfolios to gold and 20% to Bitcoin. If gold prices go sideways, this portfolio distribution could propel Bitcoin to $150,000-$200,000.
“In terms of portfolio between Bitcoin and gold, you should get to about 80% gold, 20% Bitcoin, and for that, even if gold prices were to go sideways again, that gets you to the $150,000 – $200,000 mark in terms of Bitcoin,” said Kendrick.
Kendrick also believes that substantial institutional investment could not only elevate Bitcoin’s price but also stabilize it, reducing the likelihood of sharp retractions seen in past cycles.
“Medium term, if we get to $200,000 because of institutional flows as well, it’s much more likely that Bitcoin won’t have a large retracement, which it did have in previous cycles,” added Kendrick.
Despite stagnating after the fourth halving, possibly due to slow ETF inflows and the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin’s price is still up over 55% year-to-date. It is currently trading at around $66,000, up 5% in the last week, according to CoinGecko’s data.
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