Bitcoin Open Interest Has Cooled Off, Good Sign For Bulls?

7 months ago 33

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Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest has observed a notable cool off recently, something that could be positive for the rally’s hopes.

Bitcoin Open Interest Has Cooled Down From Recent Overheated Levels

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Open Interest has registered a retrace recently. The “Open Interest” here refers to a measure of the total amount of BTC-related derivative contracts currently open on all exchanges.

When the value of this metric rises, it means that the investors are opening new positions on the derivative market right now. Generally, the total leverage in the market goes up when new contracts crop up, so an increase in the Open Interest could lead to higher volatility for the asset.

On the other hand, a decline in the indicator implies the derivative users are either closing up their positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. Either way, the market could act in a more stable manner after such a decrease, due to the lower leverage.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest since the start of the year:

Bitcoin Open Interest

The value of the metric appears to have taken a significant hit recently | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest had risen alongside the price as the rally fueled by the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) had occurred.

In this surge, the indicator had achieved a new all-time high above $18 billion as the cryptocurrency’s value itself had marched to a new record. Historically, though, extreme levels of Open Interest have been a sign of the market being overheated, so the asset was in a delicate situation at these ATH levels.

What followed the heated market was a notable drawdown in the coin’s value, alongside which the Open Interest had also seen a significant cool off. Since then, as BTC has ranged, so has the metric.

The indicator has been jumping back and forth between overheating and cooling down, and with the recent drawdown in the price, its value dropped to a low under $14 billion.

Generally, when the Open Interest is overheated, the asset could become more probable to see volatility. This sharp price action that may emerge could, in theory, take the coin in either direction, but the recent trend has been that the Open Interest has only cooled off with a decline in the price.

The indicator dropping back to lower levels, however, has been conductive for price increases. In the latest drawdown, the Open Interest briefly hit the lowest levels since the start of March.

What has followed this derivative market cooldown has been the rebound in the cryptocurrency’s price. If Open Interest now doesn’t overheat again, the chances of this rebound lasting could be optimistic.