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The crypto market often moves in the opposite direction of crowd expectations.
Key Takeaways
Bullish posts outnumber bearish ones 1.8 to 1 in Bitcoin discussions. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose to 61, indicating a market shift to greed. <?xml encoding="UTF-8"?>Bitcoin might not reach a new record high anytime soon since market sentiment remains overly optimistic, suggested Santiment in a recent post on X.
“If you’re awaiting Bitcoin’s new all-time high, it may need to wait until the crowd slows down their own expectations,” Santiment stated.
The ratio of bullish to bearish posts on Bitcoin currently stands at 1.8 to 1, which Santiment explained indicates an excessive level of market enthusiasm.
However, historically, the market tends to “move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations.” This means that Bitcoin could enter a correction amid the high level of bullishness.
The flagship crypto may end September in green despite starting the month on a low note. BTC dipped below $53,500 during the first week of the month but has since spiked over 10% to $64,000. The surge was indeed unexpected since September was historically tied to a downward trend.
A major factor that sent Bitcoin’s price soaring toward the end of this month is the adjustment in US and Chinese monetary policies.
On September 19, the Fed made its first interest rate cut in 4 years. An aggressive 50-basis-point reduction pushed Bitcoin above $63,000, up 6% following the decision.
Last week, China joined the Fed with a pandemic-level stimulus package, which would see approximately $140 billion injected into its economy. The move is expected to create a favorable macro environment that could drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs, similar to previous actions that led to over 100% increases in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin broke through the $66,000 level, marking its best September ever in history. However, bullish momentum is weakening as the market enters a new week with a spotlight on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and US non-farm payroll data.
Powell’s comments on inflation and interest rates could impact crypto markets while the upcoming labor report may influence the Fed’s approach to interest rates, potentially affecting risk-on assets like crypto.
Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $64,500 in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum dropped slightly to around $2,600, per CoinGecko. Despite short-term fluctuations, analysts remain bullish on crypto prices for Q4, citing favorable macro conditions and political support.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell 2 points to 61 on Monday, but sentiment remains in the ‘greed’ zone, according to Alternative.me.
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