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Bitcoin's recent surge hints at a possible end to the downtrend, yet historical patterns suggest caution.
Bitcoin (BTC) spiked past $70,000 today and broke its two-week downtrend. Trader Rekt Capital highlights, however, that this already happened recently, and a daily close above the resistance must occur to confirm this breakout.
Bitcoin broke its two-week downtrend today
However, we have seen upside wicks beyond this downtrend before
Which is why a Daily Close later today is needed to confirm this breakout$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/0jjg7TeebA
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 3, 2024
The trader shared on X that this downtrend started near the $71,500 price level, and it’s not something out of the ordinary in Bitcoin’s post-halving periods. It consists of rejections at gradually lower prices, forming lower highs. The daily close above $68,000 is then imperative so that BTC can start picking momentum back again.
Moreover, Rekt Capital frequently emphasizes that Bitcoin has two phases left in the current bull cycle: the re-accumulation phase and the parabolic upward movement phase. In a video published on June 2nd, the trader compares the current cycle with the 2016 halving, as both cycles registered multiple accumulation periods.
Notably, the current re-accumulation period might take 150 to 160 days to end, starting on April 15th. “We do see lots of cross-similarities between 2016 and 2024: the re-accumulation ranges here [2016] are very similar to what was seen in 2024, and the post-halving danger zone is very similar to what we saw,” added Rekt Capital.
2016 accumulation periods. Image: Rekt Capital/TradingViewConsequently, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin might consolidate between $68,000 and $71,500 up until September before the upward parabolic movement phase starts. This means that even with a daily close today above resistance, history says BTC won’t start a strong bullish movement in the short term.
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