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Polymarket indicates a 78% chance of a Republican Senate, 56% odds of a Democrat House, and a 39% likelihood of a Republican sweep compared to 16% for the Democrats.
Key Notes
Bitcoin surged 14% in October, reaching over $65,000, linked to Trump's improving election odds.MicroStrategy holds 1.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply, outperforming the cryptocurrency with a 191% stock gain in 2024.Polymarket shows Trump leading Harris in election predictions, with potential Bitcoin spikes if Trump wins.Bitcoin BTC $66 733 24h volatility: 2.4% Market cap: $1.32 T Vol. 24h: $42.12 B has climbed over 14% in October, reaching more than $65,000, fueled by its correlation with Donald Trump’s rising election odds. Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein highlight MicroStrategy as a leading indicator of this potential bullish breakout.
“We believe the recent Bitcoin strength is being driven by the return of bitcoin’s correlation to Trump’s election odds,” Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “Despite both sides indicating support for digital assets, the crypto market bid is stronger on Trump’s odds improving on the election prediction markets.”
According to the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket, Trump currently leads Kamala Harris with odds of 55.6% to 43% to win the presidential election on November 5. The former president is also leading in five out of six swing states.
MicroStrategy Stock Outperforms Bitcoin in 2024
Additionally, Polymarket indicates a 78% chance of a Republican Senate, 56% odds of a Democrat House, and a 39% likelihood of a Republican sweep compared to 16% for the Democrats. The US-regulated predictions platform Kalshi shows a similar trend, with Trump leading Harris by 55% to 45%.
“We believe the Bitcoin market strength is recent and reflective of the current spike in Trump odds,” Chhugani, Sapra, and Chindalia noted.
However, national polling averages present a different scenario, with Harris leading Trump by 49% to 46% as of October 12, within the margin of error, according to Bernstein. Last week, the Bernstein analysts reiterated their prediction that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins the presidential election next month.
While they expect Bitcoin to perform well in the long term under either outcome, a victory for Harris could see Bitcoin testing the $40,000 range again. MicroStrategy’s stock has significantly outperformed bitcoin this year, gaining 191% in 2024 compared to bitcoin’s 55%.
MicroStrategy as a Corporate Bitcoin Index
MicroStrategy’s approach places it at the forefront of Bitcoin’s rise, effectively serving as a corporate indicator of the crypto’s performance. By leveraging Bitcoin’s downturn, the company raised nearly $2 billion through equity and convertible debt to capitalize on the dip, reaping significant rewards from this strategy.
Since 2020, MicroStrategy has aggressively acquired bitcoin, leveraging debt and equity to maximize returns and outperform many traditional investments. The latest purchase announced last month increased its holdings to 252,220 BTC, currently valued at over $16 billion, against a total cost of around $9.9 billion and $4 billion worth of debt.
That’s equivalent to 1.2% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply, making MicroStrategy the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally. Looking at recent price action, MicroStrategy’s stock, similar to bitcoin, initially peaked in March this year before entering a months-long correction phase.
Analysts Predict Pure-Play Miners to Catch Up
However, unlike bitcoin, MicroStrategy’s stock broke out of that consolidation last week and has continued to accelerate. Last week, Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy, stated that the company’s endgame is to become the leading Bitcoin bank, ultimately growing into a trillion-dollar enterprise.
“Super bullish bitcoin. 100% directional correlation with Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy. Clear sign that we will blow through old BTC highs imminently,” Dan Tapiero, founder of 1Roundtable Partners and 10T Holdings, said over the weekend.
Meanwhile, Bernstein reports a recent shift from AI diversifier stocks to pure-play bitcoin miners amid a potential bullish breakout for the cryptocurrency. Due to their valuable power contracts pipeline, AI diversifiers have benefited from a surge in demand for high-performance computing and AI data center hosting services.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
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With over 3 years of crypto writing experience, Bena strives to make crypto, blockchain, Web3, and fintech accessible to all. Beyond cryptocurrencies, Bena also enjoys reading books in her spare time.
