.png)
9 months ago
48 ARTICLE AD
MONDAY AM: No surprise as Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love continues to overperform now at $52M over 6-days after a better than expected Sunday of $9.45M (to originally expected $8.55M).
Monday is looking to ring in $5.5M. Current 3-day is $28.6M, 4-day is $34.1M. Some falsely guessed that coming off a record Valentine’s Day of $14M that Bob Marley: One Love would be front-loaded, ala The Color Purple which posted $18.1M on its opening Christmas Day (granted that had previews rolled into it). However, Bob Marley has a bigger appeal than that feature take of the Broadway musical; for in six days, the reggae legend biopic has already made 86% of what Color Purple finaled at ($60.5M). Overall, a great start for what will be a piece of counterprogramming as we approach Dune: Part Two on March 1.
The worst reviewed superhero movie in some time, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web, (13%; even lower than Sony’s Morbius which did 15%), miraculously kept at the top of its weekend projections despite the fact that that’s not something to boast about. Sunday came in at $4.6M (vs. $4.4M) with a projected Presidents Day holiday of $2.65M which gets the S.J. Clarkson directed movie to $26M over six days, $18M over 4, and $15.3M over 3 days. As we told you yesterday, a $52M global opening here means this reported $80M net production will not break even, but not suffer as much as originally feared. That said, once Legendary/Warner Bros.’ Dune gang of Zendaya, Timothee Chalamet, Austin Butler and Florence Pugh arrive, especially abroad (where audiences could tolerate the Sony/Marvel title more), they’re pulling off all of Madame Web‘s legs.
Yes, Madame Web was boosted by the holiday, but it’s not the worst result box office or Rotten Tomatoes review wise for a Marvel spinoff. Let’s not forget about the 2005 Daredevil descendant Elektra which was 11% with RT critics (through a B CinemaScore) which opened over the MLK weekend with a 3-day of $12.8M, 4-day of $14.7M and six days (Friday-Wednesday) of $15.9M. If fanboys are against female superhero movies, why did Hollywood continue to make them with Wonder Woman, Captain Marvel and Wakanda Forever? See, in the end, it’s not that fanboys loathe female superheroes, they just hate bad movies.
I’m not convinced that superhero movies are dead; studios just need to double down and reinvent the wheel.
SUNDAY AM: Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love is going to be so high this weekend with a $51M 6-day that the Reinaldo Marcus Green-directed movie is going to post a 3-day of $27.7M. That’s higher than Paramount’s own Rocketman ($25.7M), which happened during the pre-pandemic summer days of May-June 2019.
Bob Marley isn’t that far from the $31.2M opening of Warner Bros.’ 2022 Elvis. Essentially, Bob Marley: One Love did its job and opened exactly where pop legend musical biopics should. 4-day on Bob Marley is $33.2M. For box office trivia purposes: the multi-Oscar winning Bohemian Rhapsody posted a 3-day opening of $51M.
The global running total for Bob Marley: One Love stands at $80M.
Big shoutout here to the post-production team on Bob Marley: One Love, who hustled to get this movie ready for a Valentine’s Day launch. Originally, the movie was dated to go wide over MLK weekend. But the actors’ strike prevented that. Valentine’s Day wound up being the ideal release date.
Says Paramount Domestic Distribution Chief Chris Aronson, “The date became the kindling to start the fire over the long holiday weekend.”
“The movie’s title of One Love represented a message of love, hope, and peace and unity that’s Bob’s music, which is emblematic of Valentine’s Day,” Aronson added.
In addition, at the core of the movie is Marley’s relationship with his wife, Rita.
Filmmaker Ziggy Marley, who produced the movie, said, “My family and I are honored with the amazing response to Bob Marley: One Love. Like my father’s music, this movie is meant for the people, and his message of peace, love, and unity is clearly connecting with audiences around the world. We thank the people for embracing this film, and in so doing, helping to highlight the message of one love.”
Also, as of this minute, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web is coming in at the higher end of its pre-weekend estimates with a near $26M ($25.8M) — now, that’s nothing to celebrate, as everyone knows this movie tanked, critically, fan-wise, and to a certain degree, financially. With $51.5M worldwide in Madame Web‘s start, I understand the loss won’t be traumatic, given Sony’s rich international TV output deals and its Netflix deal).
But still, everyone knows this wasn’t a win. It has nothing to do with fanboys turning their backs on female superhero movies, nor is it due to the fact that it’s too deep universe. Rather, at the end of the day, Madame Web is just simply a bad movie with a 54% Rotten Tomatoes audience score, C+ CinemaScore, and a 1 1/2 stars on PostTrak. Imax screens are currently delivering $3.1M. Imax and PLFs combined are responsible for 35% of the Dakota Johnson-Sydney Sweeney movie. Best markets for Madame Web are South, Central, and West, with the AMC Burbank leading the pack thus far with $32K through Saturday.
Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web‘s better-than-expected forecast now stems from the former’s robust Saturday of $11.7M and the latter’s $6.4M yesterday. Bob Marley‘s Saturday was bigger than Elvis’ ($9.9M) and Rocketman‘s ($9.2M).
All of this underscores that moviegoers are starving for movies. The overperformance of Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web‘s consistency provides hope that Legendary/Warner Bros’ Dune: Part Two will overindex beyond its conservative $65M estimate (the movie does have a very good chance of hitting $80M when it opens on March 1).
Box office firm EntTelligence reports that Bob Marley: One Love pulled in 3.8M patrons, while Madame Web drew 1.8M. Even though the 35-44 demo is the most dominant for Bob Marley: One Love at 22%, the movie is clearly playing across generations, with 18-24 (21%), 25-34 (17%) and the 45-54 (16%) and over 55 at 14%. Bob Marley: One Love is also a big multicultural pull with 37% Caucasian, 31% Black, 25% Latino and Hispanic, and 3% other currently attending.
PLFs are still driving 20% of the gross with the East, South, and West high on Bob Marley: One Love. The AMC Southlake Pavilion in Atlanta is the highest-grossing cinema so far with $45K.
Social media analytics firm RelishMix noticed the love for Bob Marley ahead of its opening, as the biopic counted 187.5M followers across Facebook, X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok, which was higher than comps Elvis (183.6M SMU) and Rocketman (113.5M SMU).
“The footage released was emotionally moving to fans, who are heading to the theater saying ‘It’s a long time coming for a Bob Marley biopic,'” said RelishMix. On Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, 48% said the main reason why they went to see the movie was due to subject matter, versus 13% who cited actor in a lead role.
Point is these mega jukebox musical biopics about legendary singers can still break under-the-radar talent in the lead role (Kingsley Ben-Adir with the lead part here) and lead at the box office. They’re not contingent on a star, read Rami Malick when he played Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, Austin Butler in Elvis, and Taron Egerton as Elton John in Rocketman.
Overall 4-day weekend, thanks to a good Saturday, rises to $93M. However, the holiday frame is still 44% off from a year ago.
Fathom Event’s The Chosen Season 4, Ep. 4-6 is seeing $4.2M over its last 4-days of release. The episodes are playing best in the middle of the country, with the Cinemark 12 in American Fork UT the best venue in the nation.
1.) Bob Marley: One Love (Par) 3,539 theaters, Fri $7.5M Sat $11.68M Sun $8.55M 3-day $27.7M 4-day $33.2M Total $51M/Wk 1
2.) Madame Web (Sony) 4,013 theaters, Fri $4.3M Sat $6.4M Sun $4.475M 3-day $15.1M 4-day $17.6M, Total $25.8M/Wk 1
3.) Argylle (App/Uni) 3,647 (+42) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-42%) Sat $2.1M Sun $1.47M 3-day $4.7M (-24%) 4-day $5.55M Total $37.2M/ Wk 3
4.) Migration (Ill/Uni) 2,455 (-229) Fri $770K (+15%) Sat $1.66M Sun $1.32M 3-day $3.75M (+28%), 4-day $5M Total $116M/ Wk 9
5.) Chosen Season 4, Eps 4-6 (Fath) 2,240 Fri $1M Sat $1.4M Sun $997K 3-day $3.44M 4-day $4.1M , Total $4.8M /Wk 1
6.) Wonka (WB) 2,347 (-417) theaters, Fri $760K (-2%) Sat $1.5M Sun $1.13M 3-day $3.4M (+11%) 4-day $4.4M, Total $210.8M/Wk 10
7.) The Beekeeper (AMZ MGM) 2,557 (-500) theaters, Fri $713K (-26%) Sat $1.45M Sun $1M 3-day $3.25M (-4%) 4-day $3.9M Total $60.5M/Wk 6
8.) Anyone But You (Sony) 2,020 (-785) Fri $650K (-30%) Sat $1M Sun $410K 3-day $2.06M (-22%) 4-day $2.825M,Total $85.1M/Wk 9
9.) Lisa Frankenstein (Foc) 3,143 (-1) theaters, Fri $550K (-68%) Sat $870K Sun $610 3-day $2.03M (-45%), 4-day $2.37M Total $8M/Wk 2
10.) Land of Bad (Var) 1,330 theaters, Fri $680K Sat $645K Sun $475K 3-day $1.8M 4-day $2.05M /Wk 1
SATURDAY AM: Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love keeps on humming with a 6-day in the $46M range, while Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web is still looking at a take north of $20M, now $24M. Whether business gets better for one film and falls apart for the other boils down to tonight.
Another win for Paramount this weekend is that Mean Girls, the movie that was suppose to go on Paramount+ but did not, has crossed $100M at the global B.O.
Industry analysts believe that Madame Web will be 40% to 50% above its Friday take of $4.3M today, with north of $6M. Bob Marley, off his $7.5M yesterday, will be up +30% to 40% to $9.7M-$10.5M.
In terms of the overall marketplace over four-days, we’re looking at $88M for all titles, which is 47% off from a year ago, when everyone complained that the opening of Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania just wasn’t good enough at a 4-day of $120.3M (don’t you feel sorry now?). Still, be thankful we have some sort of semblance on the marquee.
Audience scores are still strong for Bob Marley: One Love with 5 stars and 91% on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. With a 56% women turnout to 44% guys, the reggae legend biopic is something of a date night movie, with 30% attending with their spouse, and 21% of ticket buyers going with a date. Women over 25 at 38% and men over 25 at 31% gave Bob Marley its best grades of 92%. Women under 25 repped 18% of the crowd with a 90% grade, while men under 25 at 13% gave it 88%.
Black moviegoers led at 40%, followed by Latino and Hispanic at 25% and Caucasians at 23% and Asian Americans at 5%. Fifty-two percent of Bob Marley‘s audience is over 35, with the largest demo being 35-44 at 22%.
The film is playing best in the East, South, and West, with the AMC Bay Plaza in the Bronx leading the pack thus far with $19K in Friday ticket sales. PLFs are driving 20% of the pic’s weekend to date.
Sony went after young women with Madame Web, with 75% of its $60M global P&A allocated toward social and Tik Tok. The Marvel Spider-Man spinoff property is bringing in men 53% and women 47%. PostTrak scores have fallen to a star and a half and 54% positive; nobody likes this movie. Men over 25 are attending the most at 31% (50% grade), followed by women over 25 at 24% (63% grade), women under 25 at 23% (62% grade) and men under 25 at 22% (the pic’s worst grades at 42%).
I’m told that S.J. Clarkson, the filmmaker, aimed to make a non-traditional Marvel movie, something in the spirit of the female thrillers that Sherry Lansing use to make at Paramount; and it’s all going sideways. I’ve gotten phone calls that the budget for this film is much higher at north of $100M. But I’m also told Sony reigned it under net $100M with Massachusetts tax credits and post production London tax credits, where the VFX were handled. TSG is a cofinancier here on the Dakota Johnson-Sydney Sweeney movie, as Sony has buffered its risk. I understand if they can get to a $40M-$50M global opening, the spider bite from Madame Web won’t gush a lot of red ink, but some.
For those wondering why Sony had the scribes from the doomed Morbius (Matt Sazama and Buck Sharpless) back here for Madame Web, I understand they wrote the first draft of the script, and that Clarkson’s writing partner, Claire Parker, yielded the shooting script. This was a chance for Sony to do something different, but there were a lot of complications along the way. It also doesn’t help to have this female-driven superhero movie arrive in the wake of The Marvels, which is the lowest for Disney MCU at $84.5M domestic, $206M WW.
Many will say that fanboys are turning on female superhero movies. That’s a dog-ate-my-homework excuse on behalf of the industry. Make a great movie, and they’ll turn out, Exhibit A being the female charged Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($453.8M U.S./$859.2M WW). More on Madame Web as the weekend goes on.
1.) Bob Marley: One Love (Par) 3,539 theaters, Fri $7.5M, 3-day $23.8M 4-day $28.3M Total $46.2M/Wk 1
2.) Madame Web (Sony) 4,013 theaters, Fri $4.3M, 3-day $15.2M 4-day $17.8M, Total $24M/Wk 1
3.) Argylle (App/Uni) 3,647 (+42) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-42%) 3-day $4.2M (-32%) 4-day $5M Total $36.7M/ Wk 3
4.) Migration (Ill/Uni) 2,455 (-229) Fri $770K (+15%) 3-day $3.39M (+15%), 4-day $4.5M Total $115.5M/ Wk 9
5.) Chosen Season 4, Eps 4-6 (Fath) 2,240 Fri $1M 3-day $3.5M 4-day $4.2M Total $5M /Wk 1
6.) Wonka (WB) 2,347 (-417) theaters, Fri $750K (-3%) 3-day $3.5M (+15%) 4-day $4M, Total $210.4M/Wk 10
7.) The Beekeeper (AMZ MGM) 2,557 (-500) theaters, Fri $713K (-26%) 3-day $2.83M (-17%) 4-day $3.37M Total $60M/Wk 6
8.) Anyone But You (Sony) 2,020 (-785) Fri $650K (-30%) 3-day $2.2M (-16%) 4-day $2.66M,Total $84.9M/Wk 9
9.) Lisa Frankenstein (Foc) 3,143 (-1) theaters, Fri $550K (-68%), 3-day $1.89M (-49%), 4-day $2.2M Total $7.8M/Wk 2
9.) Land of Bad (Var) 1,330 theaters, Fri $650K 3-day $1.85M 4-day $2.2M /Wk 1
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love has more than one heart, rather millions as the music biopic about the reggae legend is now heading to $44M over six days after a $6.7M Friday, which will yield a $22M 3-day and $26.2M 4-day for the $70M feature production at 3,539 theaters.
Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web at 4,013 theaters is looking at a $3.8M Friday, $12M-$13M 3-day and 4-day of $14M for $22.2M six-day.
Apple Originals Films’ Argylle via Universal at 3,647 theaters is looking at a Friday of $1.1M, 3-day of $4.2M (-33%), 4-day of $5M and running total by end of Monday of $36.7M. Illumination/Universal’s Migration at 2,455 locations also wants to be third over 4-day with $5M and a running total of $116M by EOD Monday. The animated movie which many in the industry bet against (egg on them) is in its ninth weekend.
Warner Bros.’ Wonka at 2,302 locations is $850K today, 3-day $3.6M in weekend ten, +20%, 4-day $4.5M, and running total near $211M.
Outside the top 5, there’s Fathom Event’s Chosen, season 4, ep. 4-6 with $950K today, 3-day of $3.3M, 4-day $3.8M and running total $4.5M.
FRIDAY AM: Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love did $3.85M yesterday, and though down 73% from its opening day Wednesday, that’s because it was such a big first day with a record midweek of $14M. This puts the Reinaldo Marcus Green-directed biopic in the vicinity of a $35M-$38M six-day opening.
Bob Marley is booked at 3,536 theaters with a number of PLF screens.
Meanwhile, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web did $2.15M on Thursday, -64%, for a two-day of $8.2M. It still could get to $20M, but man oh man, those audience scores are rough. Two stars on PostTrak so far for a 58% from general audiences. Overall, 53% guys attending vs. 47% women. For some reason, parents (mostly dads at 62%) and kids under 12 saw a different movie: They both gave it 4½ stars. Madame Web is nesting at 4,103 locations, and it has Imax and some PLFs.
RELATED: ‘Bob Marley: One Love’ Review: Biopic Of The Reggae Icon Doesn’t Catch A Fire
Social Media analytics corp RelishMix notices that with Madame Web, nobody is really excited about it.
“Naysayers are referencing ‘superhero fatigue,'” RelishMix writes, “but specifically the female-centric and female group sub-genre comping the recent MCU The Marvels, saying, ‘This is another The Marvels concept. Why do they keep making assemble teams?’ Some are confused with Dakota Johnson’s casting due to the differences to the character in the comics, saying, ‘I thought Madame Web was an old crippled lady that sometimes helped Spider-Man with her visions?’ The movie was also mockingly compared repeatedly to another of Sony’s Spider-Man-less Spidey films, Morbius, with many feeling the scale is very small compared to other superhero adventures, reminding them of ‘a CW show.'”
RELATED: ‘Madame Web’ Review: A Tangled Web Of Missed Opportunities And Studio Misfires
RelishMix also notices that despite Madame Web having the social media superpower of Sydney Sweeney’s nearly 20M followers, the pic’s social media universe at 424M across TikTok, Instagram, X and Facebook and YouTube views is running 44% behind other superhero movies. Although higher than Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom‘s 334.3M, it’s far lower than The Marvels‘ 600M reach.
Third place on Thursday was Fathom Events’ The Chosen Season 4, Episodes 4-6 with $777K at 2,216 theaters. This is apart from Season 4 Episodes 1-3, which has minted more than $14M to date.
Apple Original Films’ Argylle via Universal did $450K at 3,605 theaters, -61% from Wednesday, ending its second week with $9.4M and a running total of $31.7M.
Sony’s Anyone but You made an estimated $316K at 2,805 locations, -73%, for an eighth week of $4.8M and running total of $82.3M.
Amazon MGM’s The Beekeeper wasn’t far behind with $314K, -60% from Wednesday, at 3,057 venues with a fifth week of $5.3M and running total of $56.6M.
