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SUNDAY AM: Refresh for chart and more analysis ….Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love is going to be so high this weekend with a $50M 6-day that the Reinaldo Marcus Green directed movie is going to post a 3-day of $26.9M that’s higher than Paramount’s own Rocketman ($25.7M) which happened during the pre-pandemic summer days of May-June 2019. That’s excellent and underscores that older moviegoers are starving for movies. It also provides a lot of hope for Legendary/Warner Bros’ Dune: Part Two to overindex beyond its conservative $65M estimate (the movie does have a very good chance of hitting $80M when it opens on March 1).
Also as of this minute, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web is coming in at the higher end of its pre-weekend estimates with a near $26M ($25.8M) — now that’s nothing to celebrate as everyone knows this movie tanked, critically, fan-wise and to a certain degree financially (if the pic hits $50M global this weekend, the loss won’t be that traumatic given Sony’s rich international TV output deals and its Netflix deal).
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SATURDAY AM: Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love keeps on humming with a 6-day in the $46M range, while Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web is still looking at a take north of $20M, now $24M. Whether business gets better for one film and falls apart for the other boils down to tonight.
Another win for Paramount this weekend is that Mean Girls, the movie that was suppose to go on Paramount+ but did not, has crossed $100M at the global B.O.
Industry analysts believe that Madame Web will be 40% to 50% above its Friday take of $4.3M today, with north of $6M. Bob Marley, off his $7.5M yesterday, will be up +30% to 40% to $9.7M-$10.5M.
In terms of the overall marketplace over four-days, we’re looking at $88M for all titles, which is 47% off from a year ago, when everyone complained that the opening of Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania just wasn’t good enough at a 4-day of $120.3M (don’t you feel sorry now?). Still, be thankful we have some sort of semblance on the marquee.
Audience scores are still strong for Bob Marley: One Love with 5 stars and 91% on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. With a 56% women turnout to 44% guys, the reggae legend biopic is something of a date night movie, with 30% attending with their spouse, and 21% of ticket buyers going with a date. Women over 25 at 38% and men over 25 at 31% gave Bob Marley its best grades of 92%. Women under 25 repped 18% of the crowd with a 90% grade, while men under 25 at 13% gave it 88%.
Black moviegoers led at 40%, followed by Latino and Hispanic at 25% and Caucasians at 23% and Asian Americans at 5%. Fifty-two percent of Bob Marley‘s audience is over 35, with the largest demo being 35-44 at 22%.
The film is playing best in the East, South, and West, with the AMC Bay Plaza in the Bronx leading the pack thus far with $19K in Friday ticket sales. PLFs are driving 20% of the pic’s weekend to date.
Sony went after young women with Madame Web, with 75% of its $60M global P&A allocated toward social and Tik Tok. The Marvel Spider-Man spinoff property is bringing in men 53% and women 47%. PostTrak scores have fallen to a star and a half and 54% positive; nobody likes this movie. Men over 25 are attending the most at 31% (50% grade), followed by women over 25 at 24% (63% grade), women under 25 at 23% (62% grade) and men under 25 at 22% (the pic’s worst grades at 42%).
I’m told that S.J. Clarkson, the filmmaker, aimed to make a non-traditional Marvel movie, something in the spirit of the female thrillers that Sherry Lansing use to make at Paramount; and it’s all going sideways. I’ve gotten phone calls that the budget for this film is much higher at north of $100M. But I’m also told Sony reigned it under net $100M with Massachusetts tax credits and post production London tax credits, where the VFX were handled. TSG is a cofinancier here on the Dakota Johnson-Sydney Sweeney movie, as Sony has buffered its risk. I understand if they can get to a $40M-$50M global opening, the spider bite from Madame Web won’t gush a lot of red ink, but some.
For those wondering why Sony had the scribes from the doomed Morbius (Matt Sazama and Buck Sharpless) back here for Madame Web, I understand they wrote the first draft of the script, and that Clarkson’s writing partner, Claire Parker, yielded the shooting script. This was a chance for Sony to do something different, but there were a lot of complications along the way. It also doesn’t help to have this female-driven superhero movie arrive in the wake of The Marvels, which is the lowest for Disney MCU at $84.5M domestic, $206M WW.
Many will say that fanboys are turning on female superhero movies. That’s a dog-ate-my-homework excuse on behalf of the industry. Make a great movie, and they’ll turn out, Exhibit A being the female charged Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($453.8M U.S./$859.2M WW). More on Madame Web as the weekend goes on.
1.) Bob Marley: One Love (Par) 3,539 theaters, Fri $7.5M, 3-day $23.8M 4-day $28.3M Total $46.2M/Wk 1
2.) Madame Web (Sony) 4,013 theaters, Fri $4.3M, 3-day $15.2M 4-day $17.8M, Total $24M/Wk 1
3.) Argylle (App/Uni) 3,647 (+42) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-42%) 3-day $4.2M (-32%) 4-day $5M Total $36.7M/ Wk 3
4.) Migration (Ill/Uni) 2,455 (-229) Fri $770K (+15%) 3-day $3.39M (+15%), 4-day $4.5M Total $115.5M/ Wk 9
5.) Chosen Season 4, Eps 4-6 (Fath) 2,240 Fri $1M 3-day $3.5M 4-day $4.2M Total $5M /Wk 1
6.) Wonka (WB) 2,347 (-417) theaters, Fri $750K (-3%) 3-day $3.5M (+15%) 4-day $4M, Total $210.4M/Wk 10
7.) The Beekeeper (AMZ MGM) 2,557 (-500) theaters, Fri $713K (-26%) 3-day $2.83M (-17%) 4-day $3.37M Total $60M/Wk 6
8.) Anyone But You (Sony) 2,020 (-785) Fri $650K (-30%) 3-day $2.2M (-16%) 4-day $2.66M,Total $84.9M/Wk 9
9.) Lisa Frankenstein (Foc) 3,143 (-1) theaters, Fri $550K (-68%), 3-day $1.89M (-49%), 4-day $2.2M Total $7.8M/Wk 2
9.) Land of Bad (Var) 1,330 theaters, Fri $650K 3-day $1.85M 4-day $2.2M /Wk 1
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love has more than one heart, rather millions as the music biopic about the reggae legend is now heading to $44M over six days after a $6.7M Friday, which will yield a $22M 3-day and $26.2M 4-day for the $70M feature production at 3,539 theaters.
Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web at 4,013 theaters is looking at a $3.8M Friday, $12M-$13M 3-day and 4-day of $14M for $22.2M six-day.
Apple Originals Films’ Argylle via Universal at 3,647 theaters is looking at a Friday of $1.1M, 3-day of $4.2M (-33%), 4-day of $5M and running total by end of Monday of $36.7M. Illumination/Universal’s Migration at 2,455 locations also wants to be third over 4-day with $5M and a running total of $116M by EOD Monday. The animated movie which many in the industry bet against (egg on them) is in its ninth weekend.
Warner Bros.’ Wonka at 2,302 locations is $850K today, 3-day $3.6M in weekend ten, +20%, 4-day $4.5M, and running total near $211M.
Outside the top 5, there’s Fathom Event’s Chosen, season 4, ep. 4-6 with $950K today, 3-day of $3.3M, 4-day $3.8M and running total $4.5M.
FRIDAY AM: Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love did $3.85M yesterday, and though down 73% from its opening day Wednesday, that’s because it was such a big first day with a record midweek of $14M. This puts the Reinaldo Marcus Green-directed biopic in the vicinity of a $35M-$38M six-day opening.
Bob Marley is booked at 3,536 theaters with a number of PLF screens.
Meanwhile, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web did $2.15M on Thursday, -64%, for a two-day of $8.2M. It still could get to $20M, but man oh man, those audience scores are rough. Two stars on PostTrak so far for a 58% from general audiences. Overall, 53% guys attending vs. 47% women. For some reason, parents (mostly dads at 62%) and kids under 12 saw a different movie: They both gave it 4½ stars. Madame Web is nesting at 4,103 locations, and it has Imax and some PLFs.
RELATED: ‘Bob Marley: One Love’ Review: Biopic Of The Reggae Icon Doesn’t Catch A Fire
Social Media analytics corp RelishMix notices that with Madame Web, nobody is really excited about it.
“Naysayers are referencing ‘superhero fatigue,'” RelishMix writes, “but specifically the female-centric and female group sub-genre comping the recent MCU The Marvels, saying, ‘This is another The Marvels concept. Why do they keep making assemble teams?’ Some are confused with Dakota Johnson’s casting due to the differences to the character in the comics, saying, ‘I thought Madame Web was an old crippled lady that sometimes helped Spider-Man with her visions?’ The movie was also mockingly compared repeatedly to another of Sony’s Spider-Man-less Spidey films, Morbius, with many feeling the scale is very small compared to other superhero adventures, reminding them of ‘a CW show.'”
RELATED: ‘Madame Web’ Review: A Tangled Web Of Missed Opportunities And Studio Misfires
RelishMix also notices that despite Madame Web having the social media superpower of Sydney Sweeney’s nearly 20M followers, the pic’s social media universe at 424M across TikTok, Instagram, X and Facebook and YouTube views is running 44% behind other superhero movies. Although higher than Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom‘s 334.3M, it’s far lower than The Marvels‘ 600M reach.
Third place on Thursday was Fathom Events’ The Chosen Season 4, Episodes 4-6 with $777K at 2,216 theaters. This is apart from Season 4 Episodes 1-3, which has minted more than $14M to date.
Apple Original Films’ Argylle via Universal did $450K at 3,605 theaters, -61% from Wednesday, ending its second week with $9.4M and a running total of $31.7M.
Sony’s Anyone but You made an estimated $316K at 2,805 locations, -73%, for an eighth week of $4.8M and running total of $82.3M.
Amazon MGM’s The Beekeeper wasn’t far behind with $314K, -60% from Wednesday, at 3,057 venues with a fifth week of $5.3M and running total of $56.6M.
