‘Bob Marley: One Love’ & ‘Madame Web’ Hope To Bring Moviegoers Together Over Valentine’s-Presidents Day Frame With At Least $25M+ Each – Early Box Office Look

Paramount’s musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love and Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web are expected to provide more pulse to what’s been a very dormant 2024 box office that’s -9% behind last year’s near half billion.

Bob Marley: One Love, is expected to lead over the six-day, Wednesday, Valentine’s Day through Monday, President’s Day frame with $27M-$33M; strong with Black and Hispanic audiences as well as older adults. The comps here are Sony’s The Woman King ($19M) and Paramount Elton John biopic Rocketman ($25.7M 3-day). Reinaldo Marcus Green directs Kingsley Ben-Adir as the legendary reggae songsmith whose life was cut short at 36 due to cancer.

Paramount is coming off of the very first global screening of Bob Marley: One Love in Kingston, Jamaica, Marley’s hometown. The Marley family and stars of the movie celebrated with local fans and reunited with the local cast, including a standing ovation for Rita Marley at the Carib 5 Theatre in Kingston, Jamaica on Tuesday.

Meanwhile the Dakota Johnson and Sydney Sweeney starring, Spider-Man spinoff Madame Web is eyeing $25M over six days, the movie tracking with those under 35. The movie is also solid with diverse audiences.

The S.J. Clarkson directed movie has Johnson as Cassandra Webb, a paramedic in Manhattan who develops the power to see the future.

Why so low these early projections for a 4-day holiday weekend? Last year, Disney/Marvel’s Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania pulled in $120.3M over the four-day holiday, and the industry deemed that a lackluster result in the end for a Marvel movie (pic’s final domestic was $214.5M). The answer is simple, and it’s that we’re in a wonky marketplace, dummy. There’s not a lot of competition, there’s not a lot of product, in such instances projections are conservative. Better to bet low, and hope for high. That said, it’s not often you see a musical biopic having a bit of the edge over a Marvel movie.