Can Lady Gaga & Joaquin Phoenix ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ Go Nuts At The Box Office? $140M Global Start Eyed – Preview

Todd Phillips’ musically infused sequel, Joker: Folie à Deux is currently not expected to emulate the business of the first 2019, Oscar winning Warner Bros movie, Joker, which ultimately wound up as the second highest grossing R-rated movie of all-time at $1.07 billion. Worldwide looks better than domestic, at $140M to a now lower projected $55M-$60M U.S. at 4,000 theaters with all the tricks of Imax and PLF screens. The first Joker blew past its $80M domestic projection with the highest opening of all-time at $96.2M and outstripped its $155M WW forecast with $248.2M (2019 figures unadjusted for inflation and currency swings). Still with a net production cost of $190M+, Joker: Folie à Deux’s expected business at this point isn’t bad for exhibition, and not necessarily bad for the movie itself. Who doesn’t want a movie that opens to $55M and $140M at the October box office? Anyone not want this? Why so serious, industry? Because they have Dark Knight franchise expectations business wise for the sequel, and many need to remember it’s a sequel to an R-rated Taxi Driver-like social commentary starring a DC villain that just so happen to catch a wave and overperform. The question is whether fanboys are on board for a Gaga-Pheonix musical duet feature that’s nearly as dark toned as the first movie. No one expected the first Joker to go wild in its opening; there was a fear at the time that there would be Dark Knight Rises copycat shootings. All those worries were dashed aside once the movie opened. Similar to the first Joker, Warners world premiered this sequel at Venice, however, that didn’t help in regards to reviews which stand at 62% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (vs. the first movie’s 69% with critics). This hasn’t helped presales which currently indicate a lower opening than $55M, though sources believe Joker 2 can get to its current forecast. Previews start Thursday at 3PM. Stateside for Joker 2 has first choice first for older males, followed by younger males under 25, then older females over 25. Gaga’s sole tentpole, the Oscar-winning A Star Is Born, opened to $42.9M at the October 2018 box office. She looks to best that figure with Joker 2 becoming her best opening at the domestic B.O. Hoping to bring her little Monsters to theaters, Gaga dropped a companion album to the film, Harlequin, last Friday. Joker 2 could also score the best opening for a live-feature musical that’s not a Disney one, potentially ahead of November 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody $51M start. Joker: Folie à Deux kicked off in its first offshore market, Korea, today with a No. 1 start of $1.3M. Keep in mind they’re benefitting from a local holiday. Korea was the lead weekend opener on Joker, which at the time was surprising given it wasn’t clear how the darker elements of the film would play there. This time around, it may just be the musical factor that leads audiences to lean in. And, there’s another holiday ahead this week. Overall, the rest of offshore rollout begins in earnest on Wednesday in 14 markets, including majors France and Italy. Thursday adds 45 with Germany, Australia, Brazil and Mexico among the majors. Friday brings Spain and the UK into the frame. The expectation for this first wave is $80M-$85M+ internationally. The 2019 Joker opened to $139M offshore in like-for-likes coming off the heat of being a Venice Golden Lion winner. After this weekend, on deck are Japan on October 11 and China on October 16. As we’ve noted, the first Joker did not release in China. Meanwhile, Dreamworks Animation and Universal’s The Wild Robot looks to have a second weekend that’s close to $20M, -45%, after overperforming to a $35M opening. The Chris Sanders directed movie made $2.2M yesterday for a running cume of $38M.