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UPDATE: Refresh for more analysis…and chart..Disney/Marvel Studios‘ Captain America: Brave New World after a very solid estimated $40M Friday/previews has a shot at flying past $100M for the 4-day per industry estimates. The current range for the MCU sequel’s 4-day ranges between $95M-$109M. Disney hasn’t filed their numbers yet this morning, so these are estimates. The studio typically won’t call $100M until they see it, which would be by tonight.
The Anthony Mackie movie got off on the right foot on Valentine’s Day. Even if it comes in under the century mark, it’s the best start we’ve seen so far in 2025. What studio doesn’t want a $95M+ opening for their movie? Anyone? Bueller? Currently, Warner Bros’ every expensive Bong Joon Ho directed sci-fi epic Mickey 17 is tracking in the high teens for a March 7. The review embargo following its Berlin premiere lifts today, and hopefully and those will trigger some sort of Robert Eggers box office cinefile stampede for the Oscar winning Parasite filmmaker’s latest.
Brave New World‘s first Friday/previews are not that far behind that of 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($46.4M, 3-day $106.1M), and it’s ahead of 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy ($37.8M, $94.3M 3-day) and Captain America: Winter Soldier ($36.9M).
However, hopefully word of mouth doesn’t bend Cap‘s shield as this is one of the worst CinemaScores for a Marvel character movie with a B- on par with Ang Lee’s battered 2003 Hulk which Marvel Boss Kevin Feige was an EP on (the pic was released via Universal before Disney even thought of buying Marvel). Note, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web and Kraven the Hunter carry the lowest grades for a Marvel character movie with respectively a C+ and C. Brave New World‘s B- is lower than the MCU titles which fans turned cold on, i.e. Eternals (B), The Marvels (B) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (B).
Ironically, as we talk about superhero fatigue, here’s Brave New World boldly overperforming to a degree, and that’s because it’s the only tentpole out there. Just don’t try to do a Captain America: Brave New World 2, Marvel.
Valentine’s Day, which is typically a strong day for moviegoing, rang up $66.4M this year, however, 61% of that business was from Cap.
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UPDATED, Friday midday: It’s Valentine’s Day and even though there aren’t any female skewing movies on the marquee such as Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, it’s still bound to be a big moviegoing day even though we have the dude-skewing Captain America: Brave New World. The Anthony Mackie movie is expected to do around $39M today, which includes last night’s $12M, on its way to a 4-day of $90M+. Three-day is around $82M-$84M at 4,105. Day one for Captain America: Brave New World is higher than the first day/previews of Captain America: Winter Soldier which came in at $36.9M.
Oh, and Winter Storm Jett in the Northeast hasn’t closed theaters. And that mega rainstorm in LA dried up pretty quickly.
Even moms and kids are heading to matinees today with 24% K-12 off today and another 88% out on Monday per the Comscore school calendar. That puts StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru at $4.5M today, including last night’s $600K, for what’s looking like $12M-$13M for Fri-Sun, and $15M+ for the 4-day at 3,890 theaters.
Third is the third weekend of Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man at 3,334 with $2.7M today, $10M for the weekend (-28%) and 4-day of $13M and a running cume of $70M.
Screen Gems/Spyglass’ Heart Eyes is eyeing around $3M+, around $7M for the 3-day and about $8M for the 4-day at 3,102 theaters in its second frame. The question is how steep is the fall-off after today? At this level, the 3-day is mindblowing at -16% hold, quite rare for a R-rated horror movie. Running cume by EOD Monday is just under $20M.
Fifth is the Chinese animated movie which is cleaning up in the Middle Kingdom, Ne Zha 2 which is looking at $3.2M today, $5.9M for the 3-day and $6.5M for the 4-day. At $1.37 billion in China, it’s the third best animated film ever worldwide per Nancy.
UPDATED, Friday AM: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World came in where we spotted it — $12 million in previews.
StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru clocked $600,000 yesterday. Keep in mind it’s a family movie. Thursday night previews started at 2 p.m. at 3,133 locations. The movie notched a great PostTrak scores of 4 stars for general, 4 1/2 stars for kids under 12, and a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 94%. The hope is that the four-day total is around $15M.
The first Paddington had a three-day total of $18.9M, while Paddington 2 posted $11M. Quorum believes the 3-day for the threequel is $12M-$15M (update). The pic has already cleared $104M abroad with $19M from Sony’s offshore territories.
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Neither Los Angeles rain nor Northeast snow are keeping audiences away from cinemas Thursday night as Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World, a continuation of both Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and 2008’s The Incredible Hulk, is eyeing $12 million after previews that began at 2 p.m. today.
Where does that stack up to other MCU titles? Well, it’s higher than 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier, which collected $10.2M in previews on its way to a $95M opening.
It’s also under the $17.5M previews of the last MCU title over Presidents’ Day weekend, 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which made its way to a $106.1M three-day total and $120.3M 4-day. Brave New World isn’t expected to traverse to Quantumania levels, with tracking pegging a $80M 3-day and $94M 4-day. Brave New World was always a grounded action film, nothing in the multiverse sense of the word, selling itself entire on Red Hulk (how appropriate for Valentine’s Day).
Bad news: Rotten Tomatoes critics got antsy while watching the Anthony Mackie movie, giving it a 52% critics score. Better news: Audiences on Thursday night gave it a tolerable 79% on RT. Early PostTrak from fans was a mixed bag at 3 stars, with kids under 12 loving the movie at 4 1/2 stars (62% boys). Audience make-up was 71% males, 29% female. Diversity demos were 32% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 19% Black and 15% Asian. Best scores came from women over 25 (71% grade), who were the second-biggest audience last night at 21% behind men over 25 at 56% who gave the Mackie movie a 64% grade.
Social media analytics corp RelishMix reports the social media universe for the Julius Onah-directed movie stands at just under 600 million, which is an average figure for superhero movies; Brave New World is running 21% below genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined. Ya wanna know what the social media reach was for Deadpool & Wolverine before opening? Try 1.15 billion followers. Even Thor: Love & Thunder was at a high 963M-plus before that pic projected onto the screen to a massive $144.1M three-day opening in July 2022.
Mostly all of the cast on this Captain America are social and activated, except for non-social Harrison Ford. Mackie counted 5.4M fans across all platforms before opening, Liv Tyler stood at 7.2M, while Giancarlo Esposito was at 4M.
As far as chatter online, RelishMix says it’s mixed on Brave New World. Some fans are excited to see Mackie picking up the shield from Chris Evans, and who are destined to go because of Red Hulk. But “negative-leaning chatter on Captain America: Brave New World hears trembles from fans who feel Marvel has lost its way. Comments include, ‘I remember a time when I used to get hyped for a Marvel film. I saw this poster (and trailer) and felt nothing.’ and ‘I want the film to do well, but I can’t shake the feeling that this movie is just being sent out there to die. Prove me wrong, Disney.’ The jumps in tone are turning some off, sharing, ‘It’s nuts how this movie is simultaneously playing up the ‘grizzled espionage’ angle from Winter Soldier, but is also like CLAP FOR RED HULK,’ while others are pessimistically curious in the character of Sabra, given the character’s ties to Israel in the comics with the current geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.”
We’ll have more for you in Friday, when Brave New World opens in 4,100 theatres, including 400 Imax auditoriums, 950 Premium Large Format screens, 2,500+ 3D locations, 325 D-Box/4D motion screens and 100 ScreenX locations.
Disney didn’t respond to Deadline’s comment on the projections we were hearing tonight.
