Crypto Daybook Americas: The 2 Factors That Suggest a Quarter-End BTC Price Rally

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market has steadied over the past two days, with bitcoin briefly topping the 200-day simply moving average at $84,000 early today. Wednesday's softer-than-expected U.S. CPI release aided the sentiment by validating traders' pricing of four interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

The past 24 hours' recovery was led by the memecoin sector, followed by tokens of layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains as well as AI tokens, according to data source Velo.

Still, issues such as President Trump's tariffs, U.S. recession concerns and the bond-market volatility that recently rocked risk assets, including BTC, remain to cast doubt on the sustainability of the market recovery. That said, at least two factors suggest otherwise.

The first is the quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 6% and 4.8%, respectively, this quarter, while the 10-year Treasury note is up 5%. That means funds mandated to maintain a specific asset allocation mix are now overweight bonds and will probably rebalance by buying equities and selling bonds as the quarter end nears.

Those actions will push bond yields and stock prices higher and could bode well for bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given the strong correlation between BTC and the technology stocks.

The other factor is the yen, which has come under pressure since CoinDesk noted the potential for renewed crypto market stability on the back of overstretched bullish positioning in the Japanese currency. The yen, seen as a haven investment, may remain under pressure as the potential quarter-end rebalancing lifts U.S. bond yields. In other words, risk-off stemming from the JPY strength and the resulting unwinding of the yen carry trades may be over for now.

Positive net global liquidity could also grease risk-taking.

"Net global liquidity, largely due to China and the U.S., is increasing," Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment adviser, said in a Telegram chat. "This may counteract some of the effects of the yen trade’s unwind. In addition, as the U.S. gets its own rates and inflation under better control, which has already started to incrementally trend down over the past few months, it will reduce pressure on other central bank bonds and slow rate growth on yen borrow."

Still, traders need to be vigilant for volatility, as Deribit's BTC-listed options market tracked by Amberdata shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. Dealers are likely to trade in the direction of the market to maintain their overall exposure neutral, adding to price swings.

The U.S. is set to publish the February producer price index (PPI) report and the weekly jobless claims later today. A hotter-than-expected PPI, representing pipeline inflation, may inject downside volatility into risk assets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.March 15: Reploy will close its V1 RAI staking program to new users as it transitions to a fully automated revenue-sharing protocol.March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures.March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade which activates “ETH Signature support for off-chain signing and asset operations.”March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.MacroMarch 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%March 14, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases January producer price inflation data.PPI MoM Prev. 1.48%PPI YoY Prev. 9.42%March 16, 10:00 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases February employment data.Unemployment Rate Prev. 5.1%Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38

Token Events

Governance votes & callsUniswap DAO is discussing continuing treasury delegation to maintain governance stability and retain active delegates, including a renewed framework and structure expiration and allocation mechanisms.ApeCoin DAO is discussing the establishment of an APE base in Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, China. It’s also discussing the creation of ApeSites, which aims to provide the BAYC community with an “easy-to-use tool to create personalized websites.”Aave DAO is discussing the formalization of a six-month agreement with Chainlink on the potential integration of the Chainlink Smart Value Recapture (SVR) system.March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantra to host a Community Connect call with its CEO and co-founder to discuss various major updates.March 13, 10 a.m.: Mantle Network to hold a Surge Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.March 13, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter to hold a Planetary Call.March 13, 2 p.m.: THORChain to hold an X Spaces session on TCY / THORFi recovery.UnlocksMarch 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $11.16 million.March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million.March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $32.33 million.March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.80 million.March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $13.19 million.March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $97.6 million.March 23: Mantra (OM) to unlock 0.51% of its circulating supply worth $32.4 million.Token ListingsMarch 13: Nano (XNO) to be listed on OKX.March 18: Paws (PAWS) to be listed on Bybit.March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 1 of 2: Web3 Amsterdam ‘25March 16, 6:00 p.m.: Solana AI Summit (San Jose, Calif.)March 18-20: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)March 18-20: Fintech Americas Miami 2025March 19-20: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)March 24-26: Merge Buenos AiresMarch 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

The cost of missing out on potential airdrops has been massive for potential recipients in the U.S., according to a Thursday report by Dragonfly Capital.Up to 5.2 million American crypto users have been excluded from airdrops, missing out on an estimated $3.49 billion to $5.02 billion in token value, based on broader data.That’s just the tip of the iceberg: 22%–24% of active crypto wallets are American, but they’ve been systematically cut off. The U.S. government lost out too, with $418 million to $1.1 billion in federal tax revenue gone, plus $107 million to $284 million in state taxes.Regulatory confusion in the U.S. forced crypto projects to play it safe. Many blocked U.S. participants outright, moved their operations to other countries, or tweaked their airdrop designs to dodge potential lawsuits or penalties. This created a big divide: While crypto adoption exploded worldwide, the U.S. lagged behind. Projects didn’t want to risk breaking unclear rules, so they geofenced Americans out — meaning U.S. users couldn’t claim tokens.Things might be starting to shift, though. The policy environment in the U.S. is changing, with signs that regulators and lawmakers could ease up on crypto restrictions, Dragonfly concluded.

Derivatives Positioning

BNB, ETH, XLM, DOT and OM are the only top-25 coins by market value boasting positive perpetual futures cumulative volume deltas for the past 24 hours, according to data sourve Velo. It's a sign of net buying pressure.Positioning in CME's bitcoin futures remains light, with open interest at 146K BTC, barely higher than the recent multimonth low of 140.84 BTC. The same can be said about CME's ETH futures.BTC's CME basis remains stuck between annualized 5% and 10%, while ETH's has bounced to nearly 7% from the recent low of 4%. BTC and ETH puts are trading pricier than calls out to the May-end expiry on Deribit, reflecting persistent downside fears. Block flows featured a long BTC straddle, a bullish vol play and outright buys in OTM puts.

Market Movements:

BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $83,335.37 (24hrs: +0.98%)ETH is down 0.29% at $1,896.33 (24hrs: -0.4%)CoinDesk 20 is up 0.55% at 2,596.89 (24hrs: +1.65%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 27 bps at 3.16%BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.18% annualized) on BinanceDXY is unchanged at 103.66Gold is up 0.15% at $2,943.76/ozSilver is down 0.48% at $33.11/ozNikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,790.03Hang Seng closed -0.58% at 23,462.65FTSE is up 0.38% at 8,573.66Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 5,372.83DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.2% at 41,350.93S&P 500 closed +0.49% at 5,599.30Nasdaq closed +1.22% at 17,648.45S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.72% at 24,423.34S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.81% at 2,326.29U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bp at 4.33%E-mini S&P 500 futures are up unchanged at 5,604.25E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 19,602.00E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 41,411.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 61.97 (-0.21%)Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02272 (-0.39%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 832 EH/sHashprice (spot): $46.1Total Fees: 5.19 BTC / $428.778CME Futures Open Interest: 143,790 BTCBTC priced in gold: 28.3 ozBTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

SOL/ETH ratio. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The SOL/ETH ratio continues to hold the bull market trendline despite the MACD, a momentum indicator, flashing negative readings for the fourth straight week. That's a sign of underlying strength in the market and potential for a continued SOL outperformance relative to ether.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $262.55 (+0.75%), down 0.63% at $260.89 in pre-marketCoinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.73 (+0.02%), down 0.18% at $191.39Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.50 (+1.33%)MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.11 (-1.58%), up 1.07% at $13.25Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.85 (+1.68%), down 0.25% at $7.83Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.95 (+3.71%), down 1.12% at $8.85CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.10 (-1.94%), down 0.62% at $8.05CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.29 (+1.39%)Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.60 (+2.44%)Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.43 (+11.96%), down 5.18% at $26.01

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $13.3 millionCumulative net flows: $35.49 billionTotal BTC holdings ~ 1,117 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$10.3 millionCumulative net flows: $2.70 billionTotal ETH holdings ~ 3.555 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

VIX daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The VIX index, Wallstreet's so-called fear gauge, has turned lower from the December high, hinting at a renewed risk-on upswing in stocks. That could bode well for cryptocurrencies.

While You Were Sleeping

Poland’s President Urges U.S. to Move Nuclear Warheads to Polish Territory (Financial Times): Andrzej Duda said NATO’s nuclear deterrent should move eastward, citing the alliance’s expansion and Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus.Worst of U.S. Equity Correction Is Likely Over, JPMorgan Say (Bloomberg): JPMorgan strategists said U.S. credit markets suggest a lower recession risk than equities, indicating recent stock declines may stem from hedge funds unwinding positions rather than economic fundamentals.Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels (The Wall Street Journal): U.S. consumers are spending less as shrinking savings and weaker wage growth limit their budgets, while tariff concerns stoke expectations of higher inflation and recession.BOJ Set to Hold Rates This Month, Hike to 0.75% in Q3, Most Likely July: Reuters Poll (Reuters): A Reuters survey found 90% of economists see Trump's tariffs hurting Japan's economy, while 70% anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise rates in the third quarter.Crypto Scam: Request Made for International Arrest of Hayden Davis (Página/12): An Argentine lawyer asked a federal prosecutor seek an international arrest warrant and Interpol Red Notice for Hayden Davis, aiming for his extradition over alleged involvement in the LIBRA memecoin scandal.XRP Short Bias Lingers Amid Ripple Legal Hopes, DOGE Nears Death Cross as BTC Dominance Hits 4-Year High (CoinDesk): XRP’s price has rebounded, but traders are still betting against it in futures markets, signaling skepticism about its rally. Several other altcoins display similar bearish positioning.

In the Ether