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According to a recent analysis by Benjamin Cowen, CEO and Founder of ITC Crypto, the crypto market has entered “Step 2” of his guide for 2025. The analyst pinpointed Ethereum (ETH) in his price chart, emphasizing that the second-largest cryptocurrency is set to decline further, in line with his earlier predictions.
Step 2: Crypto Market Sells Off As ETH Goes Home
Ethereum is currently experiencing widespread market sell-offs as investors react to its bearish price action and tightening liquidity conditions. Failing to meet investors’ expectations, the price of Ethereum has struggled to maintain strong momentum in this bull market.
Cowen’s chart analysis suggests that the current downtrend aligns with the broader market cycle, where Bitcoin’s dominance rises above 60%, leading to capital flows from altcoins like Ethereum. The analyst announced that the crypto market is currently in the second phase of his guide for 2025’s market trajectory.
In a previous X post on January 29, Cowen outlined a structured six-step roadmap for his 2025 market cycle theory. The first step highlights an increase in Bitcoin’s dominance to over 60%. This occurs when investors leave altcoins and move into Bitcoin, seeking stability amidst the volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market. During this time, Ethereum and most altcoins underperform due to the lack of interest and demand from investors.
Crypto market in step 2 of Cowen’s guide | Source: Benjamin Cowen on X
Now, in Step 2 of Cowen’s 2025 guide, the crypto market has entered a correction phase, with Ethereum declining sharply. Cowen claims that ETH will eventually “go home,” meaning the cryptocurrency will undergo a severe decline to long-term key support levels. In this second phase, the broader market also experiences a sell-off as investors take profit amidst volatility and ongoing declines in cryptocurrencies.
Despite rising to $3,000 earlier in this bull market, Ethereum has failed to maintain positive momentum, recording steep declines as its price struggles to find stable support. According to data from CoinMarketCap, ETH is currently trading at $2,594, reflecting a massive 16.4% price crash in the last 24 hours.
Over the past weeks, Ethereum has performed poorly, experiencing a sharp decline to new lows while other cryptocurrencies have gained momentum. The altcoin’s price has plunged to new lows, dropping by more than 27.6% in just a month. This downturn has also significantly impacted its market capitalization, which has fallen to $312.6 billion.
Cowen’s 2025 Market Guide: What’s Next?
In Step 3 of his market cycle theory for 2025, Cowen predicts that the Federal Reserve (FED) will shift its policy and end quantitative tightening, which has been draining liquidity from the financial markets. This decision is critical, as easing monetary conditions would pave the way for the analyst’s fourth step — a bullish phase fueled by market rallies.
In the fifth step, Cowen predicts that macroeconomic conditions will deteriorate later in the year. This could include factors like inflation, interest rate, geopolitical stability, and others. The final step in his 2025 market cycle guide forecasts a full-blown recession. Cowen projects that this recession would lead to a bear market, aligning with historical midterm election year cycles, where markets tend to face deeper corrections.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
