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Options continue to show a bias for BTC relative to ETH despite Trump bypassing any mention of strategic bitcoin reserve in his inaugural speech on Monday.
Jan 21, 2025, 4:09 a.m. UTC
Deribit-listed options show a persistent bullish outlook for bitcoin relative to ether, following President Donald Trump's omission of any crypto mention in his inaugural speech on Monday.
As of noon Hong Kong Time, BTC call options, which offer a bullish exposure in the leading cryptocurrency, traded pricier than ETH calls across time frames, according to risk reversals tracked by Amberdata. Risk reversal measures the difference between implied volatility for calls relative to puts, with positive values signaling a bullish sentiment.
BTC's risk reversals show short-term and near-term calls trading at a four to five volatility points premium to puts. Meanwhile, ETH calls trade at a relatively lesser volatility premium to puts.
In other words, the ether-bitcoin ratio is seen extending the downtrend. The ratio hit a three-year low of 0.03 early this week.
The bias favoring BTC is particularly striking given that Trump did not mention the strategic bitcoin reserve on Monday, despite prior rumors suggesting he would.
At the same time, a report showing GOP congressional priorities didn't include mentions of bitcoin or crypto.
Traders on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket now see a 38% chance of Trump announcing a strategic BTC reserve in his first 100 days of presidency. That's down from nearly 50% a day ago.
Omkar Godbole
Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team based in Mumbai, holds a masters degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) member. Omkar previously worked at FXStreet, writing research on currency markets and as fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desk at Mumbai-based brokerage houses. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot.
