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SUNDAY AM Writethru: ..refresh for chart and analysis Blame the lack of want-to-see fare in additon to the return-to-school as this penultimate weekend of summer is coming in at $94.5M for all movies, -33% from last weekend.
That’s the third lowest weekend of this summer after the first weekend of June/post Memorial Day frame ($66.3M) and the first weekend of May ($73.9M) per Box Office Mojo. Compared to the same weekend a year ago when Sony’s Gran Turismo led the box office, this Friday-Sunday is +4%. There’s nothing to worry about, as Warner Bros.’ Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice is going to pump the marketplace with Viagra post Labor Day with at least an $80M start; that pic’s global press tour thundering loud now with stops in Mexico City and an NYC junket rolling into its Venice Film Festival premiere next week.
Disney is seeing their MCU title Deadpool & Wolverine take its fourth weekend at No. 1 (though not in a row) with $18.3M, but in its fifth weekend. As we told you previously, it’s the 9th time that Disney has led the box office this summer, and they’ll likely lead it again this weekend.
Disney/20th Century Studios’ Alien: Romulus isn’t far behind in second with $16.2M, -61%, which is a much better hold and second frame than the previous 2017 installment, Alien: Covenant ($10.6M, -71%).
The Ryan Reynolds-Hugh Jackman feature is easily triumphing over new entries Blink Twice ($7.3M opening), the disastrous $50M reboot of The Crow via Lionsgate $4.6M, and Sony AFFIRM’s $5M Kendrick Brothers movie The Forge with $6.6M.
Despite solid reviews on Rotten Tomatoes (78% Certified Fresh) and a B- CinemaScore, Channing Tatum is seeing another dud at the summer box office in Amazon MGM Studios’ $20M Blink Twice after Fly Me to the Moon‘s crash ($9.4M opening, $20.4M final domestic) last month (note, he was part of the Deadpool & Wolverine ensemble this summer in a cameo). Clearly, it’s about the right attachment to material, for post-Covid, he has seen wins with the Sandra Bullock adventure comedy Lost City ($30.4M opening, $105.3M domestic final) and his beefcake Dog from MGM ($14.9M opening, $61.7M final domestic). The audience response to Blink Twice is just all over the place with the Rotten Tomatoes audience meter at a low 68%, and a 74% positive PostTrak. One rival producer texted me over the weekend, “Blink Twice was simply bad!” So sad, as there needs to be more fare for female moviegoers in the marketplace; Blink Twice bringing in 56% women. But more to the point, this was a big city play movie for cinephiles with a polarizing ending: You either love it or you hate it. It Ends With Us remains the draw for women in its third weekend with $11.85M and a running cume of $120.8M by Sunday in what will be Blake Lively’s highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office (beating Green Lantern‘s $116.6M) outside her cameo in D&W.
Blink Twice in a small way appealed to 25% 18-24 years old and saw 62% of its audience between 18-34 years old. Diversity demos were 42% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 20% Black, 9% Asian & 5% Native American/other. Blink Twice is best in the West (27% of the business vs a norm of 23%) along with the East and the South Central. Pic’s best business is at the AMC in Burbank, CA with close to $19K so far.
As far as The Crow, it’s clear that no one wanted to see a reboot of that 30-year-old cult movie sans Brandon Lee, who died on the set of the first film tragically after being wounded with a prop gun. Lionsgate kept its gamble on this low with a $10M North American rights pick-up and P&A around $15M. At those numbers, The Crow was worth the roll of the dice for the Santa Monica, CA based studio. They won’t bleed as much as the $20M-$30M loss expected for Borderlands, even though the opening here is less than the $8.6M start of that Eli Roth-directed video game feature adaptation. The upset is that the mini-major has two summer misfires in a row. The black eye here is that this Rupert Sanders-directed, Bill Skarsgård-starring movie came from a storied piece of IP — and its rebirth didn’t work.
While The Crow received a B- CinemaScore, it’s at 1 1/2 with PostTrak audiences. Those who showed up to watch the movie said they just wanted to sit in the dark and eat popcorn. Just joking. Thirty-one percent went because of Skarsgård, while 26% said it was because of the franchise. Male leaning at 58% with the biggest quad being 25-34 year olds at 32% and the 18-34 demo repping 58% of all ticket buyers. Diversity demos were 39% Caucasian, 31% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black, 6% Asian and 8% Native American/other. Whatever cash there is to collect on The Crow, it can be found in the West, South Central and East with Adam Aron’s AMC Burbank the best place of play for the pic with close to $8K this weekend.
The Forge gets an A+, which isn’t a shocker for a faith-based movie. PostTrak exits are strong as well at 96% positive and an 88% definite recommend. The family drama follows Isiah who, after graduating from high school without any plans for his future, gets a push to start making better life decisions. This movie has a more modern storytelling angle about it in its tale of a young man who is nurtured by those around him. It’s a very different movie from the holy-roller spirit of the Kendrick Brothers’ late summer 2015 success War Room, which opened to $11.3M and made close to $68M stateside. Eighty percent of the audience was over 35 with the largest quad being 55+ years old at 43%. Diversity demos were 40% Black, 36% Caucasian, 17% Latino/Hispanic and 3% Asian and 5% Native American/other. The Forge is best in the South (37% of the business vs a norm of 19.2%), South Central and Midwest. The AMC Classic in Albany, GA is the pic’s highest grossing venue this weekend to date with close to $11K.
Magenta Light Studios’ has the JT Mollner-directed and -written horror thriller Strange Darling which was shot and produced by Giovanni Ribisi. Pic is booked at 1,135 locations and I hear its numbers were OK in LA, NYC and Austin alone with a Friday at $445K, 3-day around $1M. The elevator pitch: A twisted one-night stand spirals into a serial killer’s vicious murder spree. Critics are over the moon at 96% certified fresh and audiences like it at 80%.
Chart is updating….
1.) Deadpool & Wolverine (Dis) 3,840 (-120) theaters, Fri $4.8M (-41%) 3-day $18.3M (-41%), Total $577.2M/Wk 5
2.) Alien: Romulus (20th/Dis) 3,915 (+30) theaters, Fri $4.5M (-75%) 3-day $16.2M (-61%) Total $72.5M/Wk 2
3.) It Ends With Us (Sony) 3,839 (+100) theaters, Fri $3.8M (-51%) 3-day $11.85M (-50%), Total $120.8M/Wk 3
4.) Blink Twice (AMZ MGM) 3,067 theaters, Fri $2.89M, 3-day $7.1M/Wk 1
5.) The Forge (Sony) 1,818 theaters, Fri $2.4M 3-day $6.4M/Wk 1
6.) Twisters (Uni/WB) 3,206 (-277) theaters, $1.64M (-42%) 3-day $5.85M (-42%), Total $248.3M/Wk 6
7.) Coraline (Fath) 1,600 (+168) theaters, Fri $1.4M (-47%) 3-day $5.1M (-46%), Total $24.1M/Wk 2
8.) The Crow (LG) 2,752 theaters, Fri $2M 3-day $4.5M-$5M/Wk 1
9.) Despicable Me 4 (Uni) 2,591 (-197) theaters, Fri $1.06M (-34%) 3-day $4.15M (-34%), Total $348M/Wk 8
FRIDAY AM: Two wide entries held previews Thursday, with the Zoë Kravitz-directed thriller Blink Twice and Lionsgate/Edward R. Pressman presentation’s The Crow filing $820K and $650K in previews, respectively. Neither is expected to move the needle this weekend with single-digit openings.
What’s a bit more shocking is that Amazon MGM Studios’ $20M Blink Twice doesn’t do more with Channing Tatum and solid reviews at 78% certified fresh on Rottten Tomatoes. Despite critical support, the sex thriller got three stars from PostTrak audiences Thursday night and a 50% definite recommend. It’s in better shape than the The Crow, which received 1 star. OMG, Lionsgate, are we looking at another D+ CinemaScore? Quorum tracking Friday morning believes Blink Twice has a shot at a $10M-$13M opening.
Meanwhile, Sony Affirm’s faith-based The Forge received five stars from its moviegoers and an 88% definite recommend, all of whom spent $600K Thursday night off showtimes that began at 2 p.m. The pic is booked at 1,800 locations. The Alex Kendrick-directed movie only cost $5M before P&A. Sony turned the Kendrick Brothers’ War Room into a Labor Day win back in 2015, teeing the pic off the week prior; it ultimately grossed close to $68M. No sign The Forge is going to emulate that.
Other than that, this weekend will go to one of two Disney movies: Alien: Romulus or Deadpool & Wolverine, the former expected to have the edge over the latter with $18M to $17M. Alien: Romulus ends the week with $56.3M at 3,885 locations. It was close on Thursday between the two, with the Fede Alvarez-directed space horror pic doing $2.6M to the Marvel Studios movie’s $2.5M at 3,960 theaters. Alien: Romulus‘ first week is 20% ahead of 2017’s Alien: Covenant ($46.8M), but 18% behind that of the highes-grossing Alien movie, 2012’s Prometheus ($68.6M). Covenant ended its run at $74.2M, while Prometheus went all the way to $126.2M stateside. No reviews yet for The Forge, but the Rotten Tomatoes Popcorn Meter says 100%.
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D&W ends Week 4 with $42M and a running total of $558.8M. It hasn’t caught last summer’s Barbie, which ended her domestic runway at $636.2M.
It Ends with Us from Sony and Wayfarer Studios, ends its second week with $35.2M after a $2.2M Thursday at 3,739 sites. Running total is $108.9M.
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Fathom Events’ Coraline 15th anniversary grossed $1.3M Thursday for first week of $16M, running total of $19.1M at 1,535 locations. The movie’s lifetime cume $101.4M. Wow, Laika.
Universal/Warner Bros’ Twisters, available to watch in the home on digital rental or sell-through, is still a draw on the big screen, taking fifth place at 3,483 theaters with a fifth week of $13.8M, running total of $242.4M after a $776K Thursday.
