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Former diplomats on Thursday warned that the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States could undermine regional stability, potentially escalating insurgency and extremism in the Sahel.
Their exit, which became official on Wednesday, January 29, has raised concerns about weakened security cooperation in a region already plagued by terrorism and violent extremism.
Retired Ambassador Ogbole Amedu-Ode raised concerns about Nigeria’s diminishing influence in regional security, noting that the situation is unfolding under Nigeria’s leadership of ECOWAS.
“The existence of these countries is unfortunate because it is happening under Nigeria’s President’s leadership of the sub-regional body. It also portends a reduction of influence for Nigeria as a regional powerhouse,” Amedu-Ode noted.
He warned that without Nigeria’s active participation, managing security challenges in the region would become even more difficult.
“If Nigeria is not playing its part in the multinational joint task force, this zone could become a vulnerable entry point for insurgents into Nigeria,” he cautioned.
The ex-envoy called on President Bola Tinubu to appoint a special envoy to engage the three nations diplomatically and prevent further deterioration of relations.
“Dialogue is key. I would suggest that Mr. President appoint a special envoy on this Sahel issue. Take it out so that there can be a one-way, direct, one-line direction and communication with him directly. One, in his capacity as the ECOWAS boss right now and as Nigeria’s president,” he advised.
Speaking with The PUNCH on Thursday, Osaghae expressed concern over the exit of these Sahelian nations, noting that it comes at a time when ECOWAS is actively pursuing greater unity and regional integration.
Also, the Director-General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Prof Eghosa Osaghae, described the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger as a “temporary” setback in the regional bloc’s integration efforts.
Speaking with The PUNCH on Thursday, Osaghae said, “At a time when stronger collaboration, such as the Multinational Joint Task Force involving Nigeria, Niger, and Chad, is needed, this situation has arisen. However, Nigeria and Niger share longstanding ties that cannot be severed overnight, both at state and non-state levels. There will always be room for dialogue, so I see this as only a temporary setback.”
Similarly, a foreign affairs expert, Charles Onunaiju, cautioned that the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS could have severe consequences for regional stability and security.
Onunaiju described the exit as a major setback, particularly because these countries form the core of the Sahel, a region already grappling with serious security threats.
“The Sahel is a hotspot for terrorism and extremism. Having these countries outside the regional security architecture is dangerous.
“Nigeria should do all that it can to persuade them back to return or otherwise create an outreach,” the expert noted.
Onunaiju suggested that if the three countries remain firm in their decision to leave ECOWAS, the bloc should create an alternative platform—an “ECOWAS plus the Sahel States” arrangement—to maintain engagement, particularly on security matters.
He noted that isolating these nations entirely could have serious consequences, including increased migration pressures and worsening security threats.
“The cost of exclusion is too high. If we do not engage them, they may allow unchecked human traffic into Nigeria, which could escalate security and economic challenges,” he warned.
The expert also highlighted growing interest from other countries in the Sahel alliance, with Togo reportedly considering engagement and Chad maintaining close ties with the breakaway states.
He urged ECOWAS to act swiftly to prevent further fragmentation.
Onunaiju further emphasised the need for Nigeria to spearhead a regional dialogue that includes all stakeholders, regardless of their political systems.
He argued that addressing security and economic challenges should take priority over ideological differences, cautioning against isolating non-democratic regimes.
“We must collectively engage these challenges through finding a forum for dialogue and consultation within the sub-region,” he concluded.
On his part, a retired diplomat, Rasheed Akinkuolie, dismissed the military juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso as “illegitimate dictatorships” and called for sustained pressure from ECOWAS and the African Union to restore democracy in the region.
According to Akinkuolie, while the juntas are not recognised by ECOWAS, the AU, or the international community, engagement with them remains necessary to minimise human suffering and push for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
“However, as de facto rulers, contact with the juntas is a necessity for dialogue and peaceful resolution of the rift with ECOWAS and also to check their excesses and minimise the sufferings of the people,” the ambassador advised.
He warned that military regimes in the region are historically unstable, often facing threats of being overthrown by fellow officers.
“What should concern ECOWAS are the human rights abuses and repression happening under the pretext of phantom coup plots,” he said.
Akinkuolie urged ECOWAS and the AU to maintain firm pressure on the juntas, ensuring they organise credible elections within a strict timeline of no more than 18 months.
He also called for intensified sanctions against junta leaders and for human rights violations to be documented and reported to the International Court of Justice for future accountability.
“ECOWAS, AU must continue to put pressure on the juntas, to conduct credible elections, within a specific time, which should not be more than 18 months.
“The sanctions imposed on the junta leaders, must be intensified and cases of human rights abuses should be reported to the ICJ for appropriate sanctions now or at a later date,” he stated.
The former ambassador dismissed the juntas’ threats and their exit from ECOWAS, arguing that any decisions made by the military regimes would be nullified once legitimate, elected governments took over.
“The posturing and threats of the juntas, are undoubtedly a nuisance, which should not distract from forcing them out of power,” he concluded.
Despite their exit, ECOWAS announced that passports and identity cards bearing its logo would remain valid for travel within the region for citizens of the three countries.
Trade and economic activities will also continue under the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme, allowing the free movement of goods and services.
The ECOWAS Commission President Omar Touray in a press conference on Wednesday noted that these measures would remain in place until ECOWAS heads of state and government determine the final framework for engagement with the three countries.
Touray stated that the next phase would involve negotiations on their withdrawal and future relations with ECOWAS.
