Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Arsenal 4 Newcastle 1


 
 
 
 
 
 

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

After the Premier League matches from Saturday, we have the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) from Newcastle’s match at Arsenal, stats via Understat:

Arsenal 2.59 Newcastle United 0.22 (4-1)

I don’t think anybody will be in the least bit surprised by the difference in numbers on Expected goals, if you watched last night’s match at the Emirates.

However, for all Arsenal fully deserved to win, I don’t go along with the idea that this was some kind of massacre where the home side had clear chance after clear chance and it could / should have been far worse.

For all they were by far the better side, I don’t think Arsenal managed to create in open play a lot of great chances. More a case of serious threat from set-pieces / corners (they have scored more than any other Premier League team and Dan Burn might have helped in this area…) and then Newcastle often giving the Gunners a helping hand with some poor defending and decision making.

I DO think Arsenal deserved to win by at least a couple of goals BUT when it came to them actually creating lots of clear chances I don’t think it was a case of them deserving much more than that. Indeed, after the opening 35-40 minutes and building that 2-0 winning lead, Arsenal couldn’t keep up that smothering all action press and Newcastle were looking pretty comfortable and having some threat of their own, only to then help gift the two quickfire second half goals that suddenly took us from 2-0 to 4-0.

I think the 0.22 expected goals for Newcastle United is self-explanatory and whilst we had a few half-chances for the likes of Isak (over the bar) and Gordon (comfortable for the keeper), not any sitters missed, with even the goal we scored needing a brilliant Willock header from Burn’s superb cross.

However, for those making out that Arsenal should have scored even more, the underlying Expected goals stats in no way suggest that.

Their 2.59 expected goals stats is nothing out of the ordinary, indeed Villa won 4-2 against Forest yesterday and their expected goals stats were 3.49 v 2.26.

Last weekend the 2-2 draw saw Newcastle with an expected goals stat of 2.38 and Bournemouth 2.08, neither far off Arsenal’s last night.

Whilst when Newcastle beat Aston Villa 3-1 at Villa Park a few weeks ago, Eddie Howe’s side had an expected goals stat of 3.32.

Last night was tough, away from home against a very good side, that wasn’t the average challenge NUFC will face the rest of the season and that is even without factoring in the missing key players who Eddie Howe for sure could have done with in a game like this Arsenal one.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Arsenal 4 Newcastle 1 – Saturday 24 February 2024 8pm:

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Willock 84

Arsenal:

Botman OG 18, Havertz 24, Saka 65, Kiwior 69

Possession was Arsenal 55% Newcastle 45%

Total shots were Arsenal 18 Newcastle 3

Shots on target were Arsenal 8 Newcastle 2

Corners were Arsenal 9 Newcastle 0

Referee: Paul Tierney

Attendance: 60,298 (3,000 Newcastle)

Newcastle team v Bournemouth:

Karius, Trippier, Schar, Botman (Lascelles 73), Livramento (Burn 73), Longstaff, Guimaraes (Willock 73), Miley, Almiron (Murphy 64), Gordon, Isak (Barnes 64)

Unused subs:

Gillespie, Ritchie, Krafth, Hall

(Arsenal 4 Newcastle 1 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(Arsenal 4 Newcastle 1 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Arsenal 4 Newcastle 1 – A bad night at the office must be followed by a better one in Blackburn – Read HERE)

Newcastle United confirmed matches to end of March 2024:

Tuesday 27 February 2024 – Blackburn v Newcastle (7.45pm) BBC1

Saturday 2 March 2024 – Newcastle v Wolves (3pm)

Monday 11 March 2024 – Chelsea v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 16 March 2024 – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (3pm) ***If Newcastle beat Blackburn, NUFC will be playing in FA Cup sixth round this weekend instead.

Saturday 30 March 2024 – Newcastle v West Ham (12.30pm) TNT Sports