Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Aston Villa 1 Newcastle 3

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Tuesday night, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Forest 0.63 v Arsenal 1.39 (1-2)

Fulham 2.37 v Everton 2.83 (0-0)

Luton 3.63 v Brighton 1.01 (4-0)

Palace 1.16 v Sheff Utd 0.77 (3-2)

Aston Villa 1.44 v Newcastle United 3.32 (1-3)

As you can see, an interesting set of results, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

Arsenal creating more / better chances against Forest (1.39 and 0.63 expected goals stats) to justify their 2-1 away win.

Whilst interesting to compare and contrast the matches at Fulham and Palace.

Fulham (2.27) and Everton (2.83) both with relatively high expected goals stats, yet the game ending goalless.

Whilst Palace (1.16) and Sheff Utd (0.77) with such low expected goals stats for both teams, yet it ends 3-2.

So clearly one match a lot of great chances but great goalkeeping and/or poor finishing at Craven Cottage, but the opposite at Selhurst Park.

Also interesting then to compare / contrast the games at Luton and Villa.

Luton (3.63) and Brighton (1.01), the expected goals stats pointing to the home side fully deserving the large winning 4-0 scoreline.

The same at Villa Park for Newcastle United (3.32) and Aston Villa (1.44). A very high expected goals stat for Eddie Howe’s side, especially as an away team, summing up the massive gap in quality of the two teams on the night at Villa Park.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Aston Villa 1 Newcastle 3 – Tuesday 30 January 2024 8.15pm:

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Schar 32,36 Moreno OG 52

Villa:

Watkins 71

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Villa 61% (53%) Newcastle 39% (47%)

Total shots were Villa 12 (3) Newcastle 14 (9)

Shots on target were Villa 6 (1) Newcastle 5 (4)

Corners were Villa 8 (3) Newcastle 7 (4)