Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Brentford 2 Newcastle 4


 
 
 
 
 
 

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Sunday, the games that featured the highest Premier League Expected Goals stats (with the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Liverpool 5.66 v Wolves 0.73 (2-0)

Brentford 1.70 v Newcastle United 3.65 (2-4)

Arsenal 3.21 v Everton 0.66 (2-1)

Sheff Utd 0.70 v Tottenham 3.20 (0-3)

Man City 2.32 v West Ham 0.24 (3-1)

Crystal Palace 2.23 v Villa 0.60 (5-0)

Luton 2.07 v Fulham 1.12 (2-4)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Sunday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

I have picked out all the games where at least one team had an expected goals stat above 2.00.

As you can see, Liverpool (5.66) the very highest, though they played against ten men from the 28th minute on the way to their 2-0 win.

However, of those playing against 11 men the full game, Newcastle United (3.65) out clear at the top.

That stat more than double Brentford’s (1.70) although as that stat suggests, Thomas Frank’s side deserved at least one goal in their 4-2 defeat.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Brentford 2 Newcastle 4 – Sunday 19 May 4pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Barnes 21, Murphy 36, Isak 38, Bruno 77

Brentford:

Janelt 48, Wissa 70

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Brentford 53% (54%) Newcastle 47% (46%)

Total shots were Brentford 10 (3) Newcastle 12 (8)

Shots on target were Brentford 5 (1) Newcastle 7 (5)

Corners were Brentford 3 (1) Newcastle 0 (0)

Touches in the box Brentford 12 (5) Newcastle 29 (19)

Newcastle team v Brentford:

Pope; Krafth, Schar (Dummett 90+2), Burn, Hall; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Joelinton (Trippier 81); J Murphy (Almiron 68), Isak (Wilson 81), Barnes (Anderson 68)

Unused subs:

Dubravka, Ritchie, White, A Murphy

(Brentford 2 Newcastle 4 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Match Report : Brentford 2 Newcastle 4 – Brazilliance in the sunshine – Read HERE)