Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Burnley 1 Newcastle 4

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Arsenal 3.91 v Bournemouth 0.47 (3-0)

Brentford 0.81 v Fulham 1.46 (0-0)

Sheff Utd 2.49 v Forest 1.94 (1-3)

Burnley 1.29 v Newcastle United 4.26 (1-4)

Man City 4.53 v Wolves 0.40 (5-1)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

The winning teams yesterday had the bigger expected goals stat apart from one exception to the rule.

Whilst Man City, Arsenal and Newcastle United made their superiority count, Sheffield United failing to take their chances, as was the case at St James’ Park when they deserved a couple of goals, not just the one. Their expected goals superiority wasn’t massive yesterday (2.49 v 1.94) but Forest winning 3-1 sums up which side took their chances and which didn’t.

Man City annihilated Wolves 5-1 and had a massively dominant expected goals stat of 4.53 v the 0.40 for Wolves.

Guardiola’s side the only side on Saturday to score more goals on Saturday and also the only one to better Newcastle’s 4.26 expected goals stat, though the 1.29 Burnley stat points to the fact that the home side probably did deserve their consolation goal at the end.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – Saturday 4 May 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Wilson 19, Longstaff 35, Bruno 40, Isak 55

Burnley:

O’Shea 86

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Burnley 46% (52%) Newcastle 54% (48%)

Total shots were Burnley 17 (8) Newcastle 23 (15)

Shots on target were Burnley 5 (3) Newcastle 11 (6)

Corners were Burnley 4 (3) Newcastle 11 (5)

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Newcastle team v Burnley:

Dubravka, Livramento, Krafth, Burn, Hall, Longstaff (Joelinton 77), Bruno, J Murphy (Anderson 69), Gordon (Ritchie 85), Isak (Almiron 77), Wilson (Barnes 69)

Unused subs:

Pope, Dummett, White, A Murphy

(Embarrassing – BBC Sport pundit comments before AND then on the Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 reality – Read HERE)

(This is excellent from Vincent Kompany after Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 thrashing – Read HERE)

(Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – Instant Newcastle fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Newcastle United class blows the Clarets away – Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – Read HERE)

Newcastle United matches now confirmed for rest of the season:

Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Wednesday 15 May 2024 – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)

(The final day of the season live TV matches will be selected closer to the day but all 10 PL games will be same time same day)

Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)