Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Fulham 0 Newcastle 1

7 months ago 41

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Palace 1.49 v Man City 2.26 (2-4)

Villa 1.16 v 1.42 Brentford (3-3)

Everton 0.66 v Burnley 0.35 (1-0)

Fulham 0.83 v Newcastle 1.18 (0-1)

Luton 1.30 v Bournemouth 0.62 (2-1)

Wolves 1.78 v West Ham 1.14 (1-2)

Brighton 0.43 v Arsenal 4.17 (0-3)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

Of the PL teams that won yesterday, all of them had the higher expected goals stat, with one exception. West Ham (1.14) beating Wolves (1.78) BUT the Hammers totally fluked it, Ward-Browse scoring direct from a corner and Wolves denied an equaliser thanks to a shocking VAR decision.

My main attention though is on Newcastle’s victory at Fulham.

United were really poor in the opening 25 minutes, got a little better for the rest of the first half but still not good. Then in the second half Newcastle easily the better team and created more than enough chances to win, which they did. Whilst the home side had plenty of the ball over the course of the game but created next to nothing in and around the box as NUFC defended well, Dubravka with not a single save to make where you thought he is going to be troubled by that.

A lot of people making out that Newcastle were somehow lucky to win but they were the away side and had a superior expected goals stat (1.18 v 0.83).

You look at the match stats below and in that second half, they show Newcastle had five efforts on target after the break and Fulham only one, whilst shots on and off target, it was ten v four in that second period in NUFC’s favour.

This wasn’t one of Newcastle’s best and most free flowing performances of the season BUT it was a great defensive display from the back four AND United had easily the best chances in the game and their keeper forced to work the hardest in terms of serious saves to make. Also, the expected goals stats don’t include of course the Schar ‘goal’ that was ridiculously disallowed.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Fulham 0 Newcastle 1 – Saturday 6 April 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Bruno 81

Fulham:

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Fulham 67% (71%) Newcastle 33% (29%)

Total shots were Fulham 14 (10) Newcastle 12 (2)

Shots on target were Fulham 4 (3) Newcastle 5 (0)

Corners were Fulham 14 (6) Newcastle 3 (0)

Referee: Sam Allison