Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Manchester United 3 Newcastle United 2

6 months ago 41

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Wednesday night, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Manchester United 1.50 v Newcastle United 2.28 (3-2)

Brighton 1.32 v Chelsea 1.54 (1-2)

So there you have it.

Very little between Brighton (1.32) and Chelsea (1.54) in terms of expected goals stats, very similar numbers and quality of chances created, but Chelsea taking one more than the home side.

Whereas at Old Trafford, the expected goals stats showing Newcastle United (2.28) with a goal threat more than 50% higher than Man U (1.50) BUT Eddie Howe’s players seeing their killer instinct not at its best. Plus of course cheated by VAR in that shameful decision not to give a penalty for the crystal clear foul on Gordon when seeing the action replays.

As the expected goals stats show, on balance of number of clear chances and the quality of them, Newcastle United deserving the win, never mind not even a point!

Stats via BBC Sport:

Manchester United 3 Newcastle United 2 – Wednesday 15 May 8pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Gordon 49, Hall 90+2

Man U:

Mainoo 31, Amad 57, Hojlund 84

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Man U 45% Newcastle 55%

Total shots were Man U 17 Newcastle 21

Shots on target were Man U 8 Newcastle 8

Corners were Man U 9 Newcastle 9