Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 0 Brighton 1

1 month ago 17

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Tottenham 1.44 v Arsenal 0.86 (4-1)

Fulham 2.63 v Aston Villa 1.44 (1-3)

Ipswich 1.17 v Everton 1.61 (0-2)

Man 1.77 v Brentford 0.89 (2-1)

Newcastle United 1.94 v Brighton 1.68 (0-1)

Southampton 2.43 v Leicester 2.84 (2-3)

Bournemouth 2.18 v Arsenal 0.74 (2-0)

As you can see, in the other six matches on Saturday, in five of them the team with the higher expected goals stat won the match. The exception (that proves the rule) was Villa, winning 3-1 despite having a far lower (1.44 v 2.63) expected goals stats. A bit of a smash and grab to an extent as Villa took their clear and not so clear chances.

Which then brings us to St James’ Park.

The Expected Goals stats show the very real story of the match.

With NUFC 1.94 v Brighton 1.68 on expected goals, anybody claiming that on balance of play the Seagulls deserved to win, is clearly talking nonsense.

However, if you watched the match then there is an even more clearer story that emerges.

The vast bulk of Newcastle United’s 1.94 expected goals stat, will have come from the chances they created in the first hour or so of the game, when they absolutely dominated. In contrast, I think the only chance of any description Brighton had in that opening 60-65 minutes, was the goal. So in that opening hour or so, their expected goals stat would have been minimal, as they rarely got anywhere near our goal.

The vast majority of the Brighton expected goals stat will have come from chances later on when the game became more ragged, when Eddie Howe used all five subs, when United were trying whatever to find a way back into that game. This in large part I think led to two or three chances later on for the Seagulls, as the likes of Livramento, Hall and Joelinton made mistakes at the back.

Newcastle United definitely deserved to get something from the match on balance of play and if anybody should have won, it should have been NUFC. However, Newcastle need to start and take their chances, or we will see more smash and grabs in this Brighton fashion.

Newcastle 0 Brighton 1 – Saturday 19 October 3pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Brighton:

Welbeck 35

Possession was Newcastle 60% Brighton 40%

Total shots were Newcastle 21 Brighton 10

Shots on target were Newcastle 6 Brighton 5

Corners were Newcastle 9 Brighton 4

Touches in the box Newcastle 45 Brighton 12

Newcastle United team v Brighton:

Pope, Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall (Osula 90+2), Joelinton, Bruno (Almiron 85), Tonali (Willock 65), Gordon (Longstaff 85), Jacob Murphy (Barnes 65), Isak

UNUSED SUBS:

Krafth, Kelly, Lewis Miley, Vlachodimos

(Match Report – I haven’t given up on this season this early, honest, but… – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 0 Brighton 1 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(Matches like this prove which Newcastle United fans have a clue and who are clueless – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 0 Brighton 1 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

Newcastle United upcoming matches confirmed to end of January 2025:

Sunday 27 October – Chelsea v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 30 October – Newcastle v Chelsea (7.45pm) Sky Sports+

Saturday 2 November – Newcastle v Arsenal (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Monday 25 November – Newcastle v West Ham (8pm) Sky Sports