Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Brighton 1

6 months ago 40

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Fulham 0.09 v Man City 3.15 (0-4)

Bournemouth 1.07 v Brentford 1.93 (1-2)

Everton 1.82 v Sheffield United 0.47 (1-0)

Newcastle United 2.45 v Brighton 1.92 (1-1)

Tottenham 3.00 v Burnley 0.95 (2-1)

West Ham 3.71 v Luton 0.64 (3-1)

Wolves 1.16 v Palace 2.51 (1-3)

Forest 2.45 v Chelsea 2.41 (2-3)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

In the eight games, seven were wins.

Six of the seven wins saw the victors also having the better expected goals stat.

The only exception was at the City Ground, where the expected goals stats were almost identical, with Forest 2.45 to Chelsea’s 2.41. Unhappily, Chelsea grabbing all three points when taking two late chances in the 80th and 82nd minute.

Only one drawn match yesterday and that was at St James’ Park.

The expected goals stats sum up very well what I saw with my own eyes. Newcastle United (2.45) the more threatening team than Brighton (1.92) and if anybody deserved to win it was Eddie Howe’s side.

Over and above what contributed to the expected goals stats, those late incidents when Almiron could / should have stayed onside before passing to Gordon in front of goal AND the Paraguayan should have stayed on his feet as he was past the last defender, instead of the pathetic dive for a penalty despite no contact.

Fine margins and yesterday Newcastle United didn’t make them count.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Newcastle 1 Brighton 1 – Saturday 11 May 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Longstaff 45+5

Brighton:

Veltman 18

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Brighton 45% (40%) Newcastle 55% (60%)

Total shots were Brighton 15 (10) Newcastle 18 (10)

Shots on target were Brighton 4 (3) Newcastle 7 (4)