Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 1 Everton 1

8 months ago 41

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Tuesday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Newcastle 2.65 v Everton 1.70 (1-1)

Forest 1.95 v Fulham 1.04 (3-1)

Bournemouth 1.31 v Palace 0.17 (1-0)

Burnley 1.13 v Wolves 1.01 (1-1)

West 1.47 v Spurs 1.39 (1-1)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Tuesday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

Of the 10 PL teams playing last night, Newcastle United (2.65) had by some distance the highest expected goals stat. Which basically sums up what we saw with our own eyes, loads of chances created and many of them in decent or indeed excellent positions.

Everton’s 1.70 expected goals stat, a large portion of that will be down to the penalty, which is given a seriously high expected goals stat of course, with the vast majority of those chances (penalties) getting converted into goals.

Looking at it overall, the expected goals stats simply underline to me that Newcastle deserved to win at least 3-0, maybe 3-1 if I’m feeling generous to Everton.

If you don’t take your chances, especially when creating so many, then you only have yourselves to blame.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Newcastle 1 Everton 1 – Tuesday 2 April 7.30pm

Goals:

Isak 15

Newcastle United:

Everton:

Calvert-Lewin 88 pen

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Everton 42% (38%) Newcastle 58% (62%)

Total shots were Everton 10 (4) Newcastle 18 (10)

Shots on target were Everton 3 (1) Newcastle 6 (4)