Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 3 Wolves 0

4 months ago 25

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Brentford 2.47 v Chelsea 2.15 (2-2)

Everton 3.12 v West Ham 2.18 (1-3)

Fulham 1.38 v Brighton 1.15 (3-0)

Newcastle United 3.33 v Wolves 0.51 (3-0)

Forest 0.97 v Liverpool 1.32 (0-1)

Tottenham 2.66 v Palace 0.28 (3-1)

Luton 2.43 v Villa 2.09 (2-3)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

One team stands out though.

No matter what Gary O’Neil might claim, Eddie Howe got his tactics absolutely right and United were by far the deserved winners. Wolves had slightly more of the ball but that is often the way with them and Howe happy to let them have it much of the time in non-dangerous areas.

When it came to actual danger / goal threat, Newcastle United restricted them to so little, a few half chances where you would never expect Martin Dubravka to have been beaten by those minimal number of efforts on goal.

The Expected goals stat massively backs that up, Wolves with 0.51, of the 14 PL teams to play on Saturday only Palace had a lower Expected goals stat.

As for Newcastle’s 3.33 Expected goals stat, that was the highest of all 14 teams that played yesterday.

To complete this set of such dominant stats at St James’ Park, the difference between the Expected goals stats of Newcastle United and Wolves was 2.82 (3.33 minus 0.51), the biggest difference in any of the seven PL games and a massively wider difference than in almost all of the others.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Newcastle 3 Wolves 0 – Saturday 2 March 3pm:

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 14, Gordon 33, Livramento 90+2

Wolves:

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Wolves 56% (37%) Newcastle 44% (63%)

Total shots were Wolves 12 (5) Newcastle 14 (8)

Shots on target were Wolves 3 (0) Newcastle 7 (4)

Corners were Wolves 5 (3) Newcastle 3 (1)

Referee: Tim Robinson

Crowd: 52,206 (3,000 Wolves)

Newcastle team v Wolves:

Dubravka, Trippier (Livramento 52), Schar, Botman, Burn, Longstaff, Bruno, Willock (Miley 70), Murphy (Almiron 70), Gordon (Anderson 90+3), Isak (Barnes 70)

Unused subs:

Karius, Lascelles, Krafth, Hall

(Newcastle 3 Wolves 0 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Very interesting on Newcastle United after win over Wolves – Read HERE)

(This is the photo that all Newcastle United fans will absolutely love tonight.. See HERE)

(Newcastle 3 Wolves 0 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 3 Wolves 0 – Eddie Howe masterclass! Read HERE)

Newcastle United confirmed matches to mid-April 2024:

Monday 11 March 2024 – Chelsea v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 16 March 2024 – Man City v Newcastle (5.30pm) BBC1

Saturday 30 March 2024 – Newcastle v West Ham (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Tuesday 2 April 2024 – Newcastle v Everton (7.30pm) TNT Sports