Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 4 Luton 4

4 months ago 29

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Everton 3.26 v Spurs 0.92 (2-2)

Brighton 1.93 v Palace 0.24 (4-1)

Burnley 1.00 v Fulham 1.29 (2-2)

Newcastle United 2.37 v Luton 2.67 (4-4)

Sheff Utd 1.53 v Villa 2.99 (0-5)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

Brighton (1.93) clearly battering Palace (0.24) and no surprise they won so comfortably (4-1).

The same to a slightly lesser extent with Villa (2.99) and their 5-0 away win at Sheffield Utd (1.53), it appears the visitors clearly deserved to win but maybe the five goal winning margin a bit harsh on the Blades.

Not much separating Burnley (1.00) and Fulham (1.29) and that reflected in the final 2-2 scoreline.

Whilst Newcastle (2.37) v Luton (2.67) very similar, even though NUFC going 4-2 down, the expected goals stats showing a point each from the 4-4 draw fair enough, based on number and quality of chances.

The exception that proves the rule is Everton (3.26) v Spurs (0.92), the visitors clearly very lucky to get a draw, not the scouse mackems who needed an added time equaliser for it to end 2-2. Jermaine Jenas actually said it was the worst that Tottenham had played all season.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Newcastle 4 Luton 4 – Saturday 3 February 2024 3pm:

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Longstaff 7, 23, Trippier 67, Barnes 73

Luton:

Osho 21, Barkley 40, Morris pen 59, Adebayo 62

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Luton 46% (51%) Newcastle 54% (49%)

Total shots were Luton 11 (7) Newcastle 19 (6)

Shots on target were Luton 8 (4) Newcastle 6 (3)

Corners were Luton 2 (2) Newcastle 8 (4)