Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle United 5 Sheffield United 1

6 months ago 45

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (and actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

West Ham 0.79 v Liverpool 2.29 (2-2)

Fulham 1.39 v Palace 1.05 (1-1)

Man U 3.06 v Burnley 1.90 (1-1)

Newcastle United 2.93 v Sheffield United 1.82 (5-1)

Everton 1.21 v Brentford 0.96 (1-0)

Aston Villa 0.61 v Chelsea 1.56 (2-2)

(***No Expected Goals stats showing for Wolves 2 Luton 1 on the Understat system)

As you can see, an interesting set of results on Saturday, including when the focus is put on the expected goals stats.

The winning teams yesterday had the bigger expected goals stat.

With the drawn matches, very little between Fulham and Palace when it came to Expected Goals stats (1.39 v 1.05) but amusing to see Liverpool, Man U and Chelsea all failing to win despite having significantly higher expected goals stats than their opponents.

As for Newcastle United (2.93) against Sheffield United (1.82), I think this very much sums up the match. Newcastle created a lot of very good chances in the second half and showed some clinical finishing at times, whilst Isak scored that class goal in the first half which wasn’t an easy finish. As the expected goals stats also reflect though, is that the relatively high figure for the Blades points to just how many really good chances the visitors had first half, denied by a combination of last ditch Dan Burn blocks, poor finishing and a bit of bad luck.

Stats via BBC Sport:

Newcastle United 5 Sheffield United 1 – Saturday 27 April 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 26 61 pen, Bruno 54, OG 65, Wilson 72

Sheffield United:

Ahmedhodzic 5

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Sheff Utd 41% (42%) Newcastle 59% (58%)

Total shots were Sheff Utd 14 (10) Newcastle 20 (10)

Shots on target were Sheff Utd 5 (3) Newcastle 7 (2)

Corners were Sheff Utd 5 (4) Newcastle 4 (1)

Referee: Tony Harrington

Newcastle team v Crystal Palace:

Dubravka, Livramento, Schar (Krafth 46), Burn, Hall (A Murphy 82), Longstaff, Bruno, Anderson (Wilson 66), J Murphy (Barnes 66), Gordon (Ritchie 82), Isak

Unused subs:

Karius, Dummett, White, Parkinson

(I thought I was going to have a heart attack – Chris Wilder on Newcastle United 5 Sheffield United 1 – Read HERE)

(Newcastle United 5 Sheffield United 1 – Instant Newcastle fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Newcastle United 5 Sheffield United 1 – How do you explain this? Read HERE)

Newcastle United matches now confirmed for rest of the season:

Saturday 4 May 2024 – Burnley v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 11 May 2024 – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Wednesday 15 May 2024 – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Sunday 19 May 2024 – Brentford v Newcastle (4pm)

(The final day of the season live TV matches will be selected closer to the day but all 10 PL games will be same time same day)

Wednesday 22 May 2024 – Tottenham v Newcastle (at MCG – Melbourne Cricket Ground)