Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Southampton 1 Newcastle 3

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Bournemouth 2.83 v Forest 1.00 (5-0)

Brighton 0.64 v Everton 0.87 (0-1)

Liverpool 2.17 v Ipswich 0.80 (4-1)

Southampton 0.83 v Newcastle 3.08 (1-3)

Wolves 0.51 v Arsenal 0.89 (0-1)

Man City 2.23 v Chelsea 1.50 (3-1)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Six matches, six victories, all the teams that won on Saturday had higher Expected Goals stats than their opponents. The Everton and Arsenal wins didn’t see them have a big advantage in terms of Expected Goals but still higher than their respective opponents.

Two things stand out from Newcastle United victory, when it comes to Expected Goals stats backing up, why for sure NUFC absolutely deserved to win.

Of all twelve PL teams that played on Saturday, Newcastle had easily the highest Expected Goals stat (3.08), higher than Bournemouth and Liverpool who had bigger winning margins than NUFC. Strongly indicating that United could and should have won by more, considering the clear chances they created.

Also, Newcastle also had easily the biggest superiority over their opponents, when it came to creating clear chances. Newcastle United with a 2.25 (3.08 minus 0.83) Expected Goals advantage over Southampton.

The next highest Expected Goals superiority on Saturday were 1.83 advantage for Bournemouth over Forest and 1.37 for Liverpool over Ipswich.

Southampton 1 Newcastle 3 – Saturday 25 January 2025 3pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 26 pen, 30 Tonali 51

Southampton:

Bednarek 10

Possession was Newcastle 47% (48%) Southampton53% (52%)

Total shots were Newcastle 17 (7) Southampton 12 (4)

Shots on target were Newcastle 9 (5) Southampton 5 (2)

Corners were Newcastle 8 (5) Southampton 3 (0)