Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Spurs 1 Newcastle 2

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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Spurs 1.00 v Newcastle 2.43 (1-2)

Bournemouth 2.62 v Everton 0.56 (1-0)

Villa 2.35 v Leicester 0.82 (2-1)

Palace 1.28 v Chelsea 1.52 (1-1)

Man City 1.98 v West Ham 1.53 (4-1)

Southampton 0.25 v Brentford 5.55 (0-5)

Brighton 1.77 v Arsenal 1.81 (1-1)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

The five teams that won on Saturday, all had significantly higher Expected Goals stats than their opponents.

Although unlike the Brentford (5.55 v 0.25 Expected Goals) 5-0 win, clearly Man City (1.98 v 1.53) having a day of clinical finishing, rather than totally outplaying West Ham.

Whilst the two games that ended as draws, these were the two matches that easily had the closest Expected Goals totals.

When it comes to the early kick-off on Saturday, some absolute nonsense from Spurs fans, the media and especially Ange Postecoglou.

Claiming somehow that Spurs deserved something, even should have won!

Yet the reality is that the only vaguely difficult save Dubravka made, was in the second-half when diving low to his left, TV replays showing the shot was actually going wide anyway.

At the other end, Newcastle United with more goals AND far more clear chances and close things.

As the Expected Goals stats suggest, Newcastle United (2.43) with a stat almost two and a half times bigger than Spurs’ 1.00.

Newcastle United fully deserved this victory and the Expected Goals stats are just one more indication that this was the case.

Spurs 1 Newcastle 2 – Saturday 4 January 2025 12.30pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Gordon 6, Isak 38

Spurs:

Solanke 4

Possession was Newcastle 43% (54%) Spurs 57% (46%)

Total shots were Newcastle 14 (7) Spurs 13 (4)