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When political outsider Donald Trump defied polls and expectations to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 United States presidential election, he described the victory as “beautiful.”
Not everyone saw it that way — particularly as Democrat Clinton received nearly three million more votes nationally than her Republican rival. Non-Americans were especially puzzled that the candidate with the second-highest vote count would be declared president.
However, Trump had done what the US system requires: win enough individual states, sometimes by very narrow margins, to surpass the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the White House.
Now, on the eve of the 2024 election showdown between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the rules of this complex and, to some, outdated system are coming back into focus.
Why an Electoral College?
The 538 members of the US Electoral College gather in their respective state capitals after the presidential election to designate the winner.
To win, a presidential candidate must secure an absolute majority of the “electors” — at least 270 of the 538.
The system originated with the US Constitution in 1787, establishing the rules for indirect, single-round presidential elections.
The country’s founding fathers viewed the system as a compromise between direct presidential elections with universal suffrage and an election by members of Congress — an approach they rejected as insufficiently democratic.
Since many states predictably lean Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates focus heavily on the handful of “swing” states where the election will likely be decided — nearly ignoring large states such as left-leaning California and right-leaning Texas.
Over the years, hundreds of amendments have been proposed in Congress to modify or abolish the Electoral College, yet none have succeeded.
Trump’s 2016 victory rekindled the debate, and if the 2024 race is as close as most polls suggest, the Electoral College will likely return to the spotlight.
Who are the 538 Electors?
Most are local elected officials or party leaders, but their names do not appear on ballots.
Each state has as many electors as it has members in the US House of Representatives (based on the state’s population), plus two in the Senate, regardless of the state’s size.
California, for example, has 54 electors; Texas has 40; and sparsely populated states like Alaska, Delaware, Vermont, and Wyoming have only three each.
The US capital, Washington, also has three electors, despite having no voting members in Congress.
The Constitution leaves it to each state to decide how its electors should vote. In every state but two (Nebraska and Maine, which allocate some electors by congressional district), the candidate who wins the most votes theoretically takes all of that state’s electors.
A Controversial Institution
In November 2016, Trump won 306 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed.
The unusual situation of losing the popular vote but winning the White House was not unprecedented.
Five presidents have risen to office this way, the first being John Quincy Adams in 1824.
More recently, the 2000 election led to a complex dispute in Florida between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.
Gore won nearly 500,000 more votes nationwide, but when Florida — after a US Supreme Court intervention — was awarded to Bush, it pushed his Electoral College total to 271, securing a narrow victory.
True Vote or Mere Formality?
Nothing in the Constitution obliges electors to vote one way or another.
While some states required electors to respect the popular vote, they could be fined if they failed to do so. But in July 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that states could impose penalties on such “faithless electors.”
To date, faithless electors have never changed the outcome of a US election.
Electoral College Timeline
Electors will gather in their state capitals on December 17 to cast votes for the president and vice president.
US law states that they “meet and cast their vote on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December.”
On January 6, 2025, Congress will convene to certify the winner — a nervously anticipated event this cycle, four years after a mob of Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol, attempting to block certification.
Last time, Republican Vice President Mike Pence, as Senate President, oversaw the certification, defying intense pressure from Trump and the mob to confirm President Joe Biden’s victory.
This time, the Senate President — overseeing what would normally be a procedural certification — will be the current Vice President, Kamala Harris.
On January 20, 2025, the new president will be sworn in.
(AFP)
