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UPDATED with latest forecast: With a potentially dangerous storm bearing down on the Southland, evacuation warnings will take effect in multiple areas Thursday amid fears that steady downpours could spark flooding, mudslides and debris flows.
The brunt of the storm — which began with generally light rainfall across the region Wednesday — is expected to hit the Los Angeles area around mid-afternoon Thursday, about three to six hours earlier than previous predictions.
A flash flood watch was issued by the National Weather Service for the bulk of Los Angeles County for Thursday morning through Thursday evening, with forecasters saying flooding and debris flows are possible, with the greatest risk in or near the Eaton, Palisades/Franklin and Bridge fire burn scars.
A flood watch will also be in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday night for most of Orange County.
In anticipation of the wet weather, the Los Angeles Fire Department announced that evacuation warnings will take effect at 7 a.m. Thursday for specific areas near recent burn areas.
They are as follows:
Fire officials said specific homes considered to be at high risk will be subject to mandatory evacuation orders. Those residents will be contacted directly by the LAFD. The evacuation warnings are expected to be in effect until at least 2 p.m. Friday, depending on the storm.
All Malibu campuses in the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District
will be closed Thursday “due to road closures and weather concerns.”
District officials said the closure may extend into Friday depending on weather
conditions.
Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said evacuation warnings are also likely to be issued for residents near the Eaton Fire burn area in Altadena and Pasadena, but none had been issued as of mid-afternoon Wednesday.
L.A. County public works crews have been working to prepare for the storm — emptying debris basins, clearing storm drains and distributing sandbags to residents. In the Eaton Fire burn zone, the county Department of Public Works and the sheriff’s department have also been warning residents living in homes that may be at high risk of damage from mudslides or flooding, and advising them to prepare to evacuate.
“Please, if evacuation orders are made…keep your safety in mind,” Luna said. “They help to protect you and your loved ones from potential danger. Storms can bring sudden and severe conditions that make staying back home extremely risky..Please take necessary steps now to prepare. Pack an emergency kit, secure important documents and ensure that you have a plan in place for your pets and family members.
“And remember, if you’re ordered to leave, you may be gone for several days. I cannot stand up here and tell you will be gone for 12 hours, 24 hours. We don’t know. It depends on the weather and the post weather events that will impact your specific neighborhood.”
Luna said deputies have also been canvassing flood-prone areas such as the Los Angeles River to warn homeless people who may be camped there to relocate.
“Unfortunately, we witnessed numerous, numerous instances in the past of swift-water rescues where people were caught in dangerous, fast moving water, and obviously, we want to prevent that,” he said.
The NWS has described the multi-day storm system as likely to be “the biggest precipitation producer so far this season.”
Only about a quarter-inch of rain was expected to fall on Wednesday, but by the time the brunt of the storm exits the area on Friday, roughly 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected in most coastal and valley areas, with 3 to 6 inches anticipated in the foothills and mountains.
NWS now sees “a small area of rain rates just over 1 inch per hour across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and western Ventura.”
It warns, however, that “any location his susceptible to rain rates between a half and one inch per hour, especially during the peak of the event…However, minor flooding of roads is likely just about anywhere.”
Los Angeles County Public Works Director Mark Pestrella said rainfall rates that exceed a half-inch per hour can lead to mud and debris flows, although factors such as topography, the soil system, geology and the status of the flood control system all contribute to the potential for such occurrences. He insisted, however, that crews have been working around the clock to ensure the county’s 154 debris are clear and have the capacity to capture mud and debris that could descend mountain slopes.
“We are in a state of readiness with those facilities,” Pestrella said. “We have the capacity for the size of storm that we expect to come with this storm.”
He noted that the county has been working with federal agencies to develop a system for containing debris that may start flowing from within the Palisades and Eaton fire burn zones, hoping to contain any such flows on streets in those areas.
“This is unusual,” he said. “We don’t typically want any debris to end up in the streets.”
But he said using a vast system that includes thousands of miles of K- rail and hundreds of thousands of sandbags, crews are hoping to capture debris before it reaches streets, but if it does, the flows will be diverted and contained on streets to prevent it from reaching waterways, which would lead to the ocean in the Palisades area.
Pestrella said that while the county has been working to notify residents in the fire zones whose homes may be at increased danger of experiencing mudslides, he urged residents who think they may be at risk to contact the county at 800-675-4357 to have their property evaluated. The service is available at any county location, not just the recent fire areas.
“This service is going to be provided right up to and to the point that we can no longer get to your properties,” he said.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said city crews — much like county crews — have been scrambling to prepare for the rain by clearing out catch basins, removing debris from storm drains and installing measures such as concrete barriers and thousands of sandbags, particularly in the Palisades Fire burn area.
Pacific Coast Highway remains closed to the public between Chautauqua Boulevard in Pacific Palisades and Carbon Beach Terrace in Malibu due to concerns about possible mud slides or debris flows.
Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath said she understands the PCH closure is difficult for resident in the Palisades and Malibu areas, but authorities will only reopen it “when it’s safe.”
Numerous other Malibu-area roads are also closed to everyone but residents.
“We know that this can also contribute to emergency fatigue,” Horvath said. “Staying on high alert for this extended period of time is challenging. Stay with us. Stay informed. We’re here to protect you and work with you to keep you, your family and your community safe.”
City News Service contributed to this report.
PREVIOUSLY on Tuesday: The National Weather Service today increased total rainfall projections for what’s likely to be the L.A.’s biggest storm of the season, thusfar.
While initially the projection for the Wednesday-Friday deluge in the Palisades Fire area was about 2.5 inches, the NWS has bumped that up to 3.35 inches. Likewise in the area of the Eaton Fire burn scar, the 3-plus inches forecast is now 4.53 inches.
The first wave of rain will arrive Wednesday late morning with rain under a tenth of an inch an hour. “Storm totals by Thursday morning in most areas will be a quarter inch or less, with local amounts up to around a half inch in the foothills and mountains,” per the NWS. Things get more intense Thursday into Friday morning.
Rain rates during that period could reach half an inch to an inch per hour.
PREVIOUSLY on Monday: National Weather Service forecasters today warned of a strong storm system is making its way toward Los Angeles, saying that the storm could trigger flooding and debris flows, particularly in recent burn areas.
Rain is expected to begin sometime Wednesday, and the National Weather Service has already issued a flash flood watch that will be in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for the bulk of the Los Angeles area.
Forecasters said excessive rainfall could lead to “significant” flooding and debris flows in recent burn scars, including the Eaton and Palisades fires. They assed such risks as “moderate.”
A lesser storm last week caused mudslides on Topanga Canyon and PCH.
As a result, PCH remains closed both ways from Sweetwater Cyn Rd in the north to Chautauqua Blvd / West Channel Rd in the Palisades.
Topanga Canyon likewise remains closed between Grand View Drive and PCH.
Local residents have been concerned with debris cleanup and interim storage in the area. Some held a protest today against the Environmental Protection Agency’s plans to use a Will Rogers State Beach parking lot as a staging area for storage and processing of hazardous materials from the Palisades Fire.
Last month, Topanga-area residents protested the use of the land where the historic Topanga Ranch Motel once sat — it burned in the fire — as a “temporary site where hazardous items will be transported from nearby properties to be safely processed, sorted, and packaged.” The Ranch Motel property is located on the bank of Topanga Creek and the associated watershed.
Significant rain and flooding could add to those concerns.
“This storm will very likely be the biggest precipitation producer so far this season for most of southwest California,” the National Weather Service announced.
Clouds are expected to cover most of the region starting Wednesday, with as much as a half-inch of rain possible. But the brunt of the storm will arrive Thursday, with widespread rain likely to impact the area for about 36 hours.
“The more dangerous portion of the storm will occur with the cold front which will sweep into San Luis Obispo County late Thursday afternoon,” according to the NWS. “It will move into Santa Barbara County Thursday evening and then Ventura/Los Angeles counties after midnight. This will be the worrisome portion of the storm as rainfall rates near 1 inch per hour will be possible just ahead and with the front. People in or near to recent burn areas will need to by hyper vigilant of weather conditions during this time frame. There is also a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms with the front which will be well capable of producing dangerous rain rates in excess of 1 inch per hour as well a gusty winds and/or waterspouts.”
The rain will turn to showers on Friday, decreasing that afternoon.
Forecasters said the storm overall could drop 1 to 2 inches across much of the region, with 2 to 4 inches in coastal foothills. But according to the NWS, the rainfall totals could wind up being higher.
Snow levels will be at about 5,000 feet Wednesday, rising to 7,000 feet Thursday then falling back to about 5,000 feet. Higher elevations could see “several feet” of snow.
High temperatures will be in the 50s each day of the storm, which is about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, according to the NWS.
City News Service contributed to this report.
