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A gigantic net inflow of $827M to the Spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday helped to push $BTC practically to its all-time high of $73,800. The price has since pulled back to settle around $72,000. Will the $BTC price now go on to top that all-important landmark, or is a retracement on the cards first?
Third-largest Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow day
The 11.82K BTC purchased by the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday was the third-largest one day inflow since the launch of these ETFs in early January this year. The largest inflow, equivalent to $1.04 billion, came just before the all-time high in March.
The Bitcoin buying spree just goes on and on, with only one small outflow day in the last twelve days, which have mustered the equivalent of more than $4 billion into the Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
If this kind of buying continues, it would perhaps be a matter of when, and not if, Bitcoin will surpass its all-time high and enter the next, potentially parabolic stage of its bull market.
Trump favourite as U.S. election reaches fever-pitch
With the U.S. elections reaching fever-pitch stage, as the countdown enters the last five days, the news is that Donald Trump is becoming the favourite, even in the traditional polls. The last polling data up to 28 October has Trump ahead in all swing States except Nevada, where Kamala Harris has a slender lead.
Polymarket, the biggest global prediction market, has Trump up in all the swing States, with Michigan being the closest call. The overall betting has the ex-president up by 67% to Harris’ 33.1%.
Going into the election day on 5 November, there is likely to be a lot of volatility in the crypto market, given that a Trump victory would potentially signal a far more benign US regime towards cryptocurrencies. Some say that even if Harris wins, this is not necessarily a bad thing for Bitcoin.
Last $BTC surge, or healthier retracement to come?
Source: TradingView
In the short-term time frame, it can be noticed just how close the $BTC price came to a new all-time high. A small matter of a couple of hundred dollars was all that separated Tuesday’s high from the previous high water mark set in March.
It now remains to be seen whether more strong buying from the U.S. ETFs can be sufficient to send $BTC over the line, or whether exhausted bulls might need to give way for the time being and allow the price to retrace first.
Given that all the short-term momentum indicators have just started to fall from their tops, it might be expected that a retracement does in fact come first. As seen in the chart above, the price has already come back to the 0.236 Fibonacci. A bounce from here would be extremely bullish, but a healthier retrace would be if the bears were allowed to force the price back to the 0.382 Fibonacci, or even better, the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels. If a bounce occurred from these areas it would still be above the bull flag and a perfectly healthy retracement.
Monthly candle close could trigger new price structure base for $BTC
Source: TradingView
The monthly time frame provides a macro picture for the $BTC price which gives clues as to where Bitcoin could go over the next several months.
It can be seen that the structure provided by the last seven months of sideways price action within the bull flag, has built upon the top of the previous bull market structure from 2021/2022. If a new monthly candle is able to open above $71,270, this could be the start of new price structure to be built on top of this horizontal level. With Thursday being the last day of this month, where the candle closes will be crucially important.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
