How the NWSL semifinals will be won

Credit: Lucas Boland-USA TODAY Sports

If anyone expresses confidence about the two teams who will be playing in the NWSL Championship, they have some beautiful beachfront property outside of Phoenix they’d love to sell you.

This is the rare season where the quality separating the four semifinalists is tissue paper-thin, while that quality separating those four from everyone else is the largest in history. The Orlando Pride, Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC, and Kansas City Current were wildly better than the rest of the league, but not much better or worse than each other. Five points separated the Shield-winning Pride from the fourth-place Current. Only one point separated Kansas City from the second-place Spirit. These are four historically great teams who can claim no real advantage over their semifinal (and potentially Championship) opponents.

So, how can we predict this weekend’s results? We’ll use an average of two projection models — the Larner Elo model and the American Soccer Analysis model — to frame what the data says about the strengths and weaknesses of these four squads, and what could swing the results in one direction or other.

Saturday: Washington Spirit (2) vs. Gotham FC (3)

Spirit Odds: 58%

Gotham Odds: 42%

Fans and the clubs themselves have tried to make this fixture a rivalry. Both have been battling since the league’s inception in 2013. The journey from Red Bull Arena to Audi Field (or, for the old heads, from Yurcak Field to the Maryland SoccerPlex) is the second-shortest in the league.