2 months ago
7 ARTICLE AD
I am a psephologist, an election expert. I have had the privilege of being an accredited election observer both in Nigeria and abroad. In Nigeria, I have had the rare privilege of observing elections since the return to civil rule in 1999. Outside of Nigeria, I have been an accredited observer of the Ghanaian presidential run-off election in 2008, the US midterm election in 2010, the Egyptian election in 2014, and the Ugandan election in 2016. Election is a rule-based endeavour and an emotive exercise, especially for candidates, their political parties, and the electorate.
Edo State has had a chequered history of elections, and it happens to be one of the eight states where the judiciary has fostered off-cycle governorship elections in Nigeria. Others are Imo, Ondo, Anambra, Kogi, Bayelsa, Ekiti, and Osun. Edo is a volatile state politically. The electorate in the state is politically savvy. They tend to rebel against godfather politics.
Information gleaned from the website of the Edo State government said the state was initially established as the Mid-Western Region in 1963, which was carved from the former Western Region of Nigeria. With Benin City as its capital, the region was later renamed Bendel State in 1976. During the Nigerian Civil War, the Mid-Western Region faced invasion by the Biafran forces seeking to capture Lagos. A short-lived “Republic of Benin” was declared during the occupation, but Nigerian forces quickly retook the region and Benin City. Finally, Bendel State was divided on August 27, 1991, creating the present-day Edo and Delta States.
The main ethnic groups in Edo State are the Edos, popularly known as Binis, the Afemais, the Esans, the Owans, and the Akoko Edos. Virtually all the groups traced their origin to Benin city, hence, the dialects of the groups vary with their distance from Benin City. The Bini-speaking people who occupy seven out of the 18 Local Government Areas of the state constitute 57.54 per cent while others, Esan;17.14 per cent, Afemai comprising Etsako constitute 12.19 per cent, Owan; 7.43per cent, and Akoko Edo;5.70 per cent. Like every state, Edo has three senatorial districts, namely north, central, and south. The South has produced two of the four governors that have reigned in the state since 1999. They are Lucky Igbinedion; 1999 to 2007, and the outgoing incumbent Godwin Obaseki; 2016 to 2024. The North produced Adams Oshiomhole; 2008 to 2016. In 25 years, Edo Central only produced a short-lived governor in Prof. Oserheimen Osunbor; 2007 to 2008.
Interestingly, two dominant political parties contesting next Saturday’s governorship election, namely the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress, decided to pick their candidates from Edo Central for purposes of political inclusion, equity, and justice. Thus, head or tail, the next occupier of Osadebey Government House from November 11, 2024, will most likely be from Edo Central. Truth be told, even though 18 candidates are contesting, it’s a two-horse race between Senator Monday Okpebholo of the APC and Asuerinme Ighodalo of the PDP.
The question on the lips of political watchers of the Edo Election is whether the poll will be credible. They are asking if the votes of the electorate will count in determining the winner. There are variables to determine the credibility of any election. These include a peaceful poll, early deployment and commencement of the polling exercise across all the Polling Units, seamless accreditation and voting, transparent result management process by poll officials, strict adherence to the electoral laws and guidelines, and prompt uploading of the Polling Units results on the INEC Result Viewing Portal.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission, in Edo State, there are 4,519 polling units and 211 collation centres, comprising 192 ward centres, 18 local government centres, and the state collation centre in Benin city. Edo State has 2,629,025 registered voters. Among these, 1,370,061 are male, representing 52.11 per cent, while 1,258,964 are female, making up 47.89 per cent. Youths aged 18 to 35 accounted for 983,133 voters, which is 37.4 per cent. INEC has accredited 134 groups; 124 domestic and 10 international—that would deploy 1,836 observers across the state and has accredited 114 media organisations deploying 721 journalists.
Intending to provide security for the forthcoming poll, Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, last Thursday, during the signing of the Peace Accord, said 35,000 policemen would be deployed across Edo State for the September 21 governorship election, and another 8,000 from sister security agencies like the armed forces as well as the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps, to complement the police.
INEC, as the umpire of the electoral process, should understand that all eyes will be on the Commission to see if there will be a significant improvement over the last general election and the November 11, 2023, off-cycle governorship polls in Imo, Bayelsa, and Kogi. While the election petition tribunals, including the Court of Appeal and Supreme Courts, may have validated the results declared by INEC, not a few political pundits are dissatisfied with some of the processes and procedures that took place during the last off-cycle election in November 2023. At least two reputable institutions, Kimpact Development Initiative and Athena Centre, have drilled down and critically analysed the results declared by INEC in Kogi, Bayelsa, and Imo last November. They found some discrepancies between the number of accredited voters and results recorded on Form EC8A and posted on the INEC Result Viewing Portal.
Information gleaned from the website of the Athena Centre showed that the Centre’s forensic review of the 2023 off-cycle gubernatorial elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states reveals the successes and challenges of Nigeria’s evolving electoral process. While the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing Portal significantly improved transparency and voter accreditation accuracy, widespread non-compliance and corrupt practices were still prevalent. The review highlights that a substantial portion of the polling units in these states adhered to INEC guidelines—77.5% in Kogi, 73% in Imo, and 84.8% in Bayelsa—demonstrating the potential of these technological advancements to enhance electoral integrity. Across the three states, significant votes were cast in polling units that failed to comply with INEC electoral guidelines—22.5% in Kogi, 23.1% in Imo, and 15% in Bayelsa—substantially altering the final election outcomes.
It is imperative for INEC to preempt and prevent these human errors, which can vitiate the good work of the Commission. INEC must properly oversight its ad-hoc staff, including those responsible for the election day logistics, and ensure that they do not hold the Commission to ransom. Already, Governor Godwin Obaseki and the PDP in Edo State had made some allegations bordering on the likely partisanship of the INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner and the Commissioner of Police. This formed part of the reason the PDP candidate did not sign the peace accord last week. While there may not be incontrovertible proof of compromise by these gentlemen, however, the Commission should not treat any allegation with levity.
I do hope INEC has adequately trained and deployed all the poll workers by now. It is imperative for the Commission to hammer it to the hearing of the collation and returning officers to verify the results being brought to them to announce. The law is on the side of the Commission to review any erroneous declaration within seven days according to Section 65(1) of the Electoral Act 2022. Electoral integrity is important, and I wish INEC great success next Saturday.
X: @jideojong
