Is Binani back?

The recent reappearance of Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed in public and media circles has sparked speculations about whether the 2023 gubernatorial candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Adamawa State is preparing for another run to become Nigeria’s first female governor.

Since the Supreme Court ruling on the 2023 Adamawa governorship election in January, Senator Ahmed maintained a relatively low profile until her return to public life earlier this month. Her re-emergence has prompted discussions among political observers and her supporters alike.

Popularly known as Aisha Binani, Senator Ahmed was on the brink of making history as Nigeria’s first female governor before her ambitions were thwarted by the Supreme Court. The apex court ruled that the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), who declared her the winner while the collation of results was still ongoing, did not have the authority to announce election results.

Binani had petitioned the Supreme Court to uphold the declaration made by the now suspended REC, Hudu Yunusa-Ari, based on his position as an official of the electoral body, citing Section 149 of the Electoral Act. She argued that Yunusa-Ari, as a representative of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), acted within his powers. However, the court disagreed, further stating that electoral processes must follow due protocol and no result should be announced until the collation process is fully completed.

The controversial nature of the 2023 election in Adamawa put a spotlight on the internal workings of INEC, raising questions about the conduct of elections and the role of RECs in ensuring fairness and transparency. For Binani, it was a significant setback, as her bid to break the glass ceiling in Nigerian politics was halted in its final stages.

Return to public life

After months of silence, Binani’s return to the political stage has reignited interest in her political future. Her recent activities, particularly a series of appreciation gestures aimed at reconnecting with her supporters, have led many to believe that she is positioning herself for another gubernatorial campaign.

In a well-publicised meeting held in Yola, the state capital, Binani expressed her gratitude to her supporters, many of whom were delegates from the APC governorship primary. 

At the gathering, which included hundreds of delegates, Binani distributed 1,000 bags of fertiliser, with each of the 430 delegates receiving a 50kg bag. Her actions were seen as a clear display of her continuing commitment to her political base and a sign that she intends to maintain her influence in Adamawa’s political scene.

One of her close supporters, Julius Kadara, a former commissioner, praised her for showing appreciation to those who stood by her, describing her actions as a rare gesture in Nigeria’s political landscape, where many politicians often move on without acknowledging their supporters after an election.

Following this event, Binani visited Governor Babagana Umara Zulum of Borno State, where she donated N50 million to aid victims of the devastating floods that recently ravaged Maiduguri and Jere. This gesture, while charitable, also positioned her in the national spotlight, underscoring her commitment to humanitarian causes and keeping her profile high.

A new push for the Adamawa Government House?

Binani’s recent engagements have led many political observers to speculate that her activities are part of a broader strategy to re-launch her gubernatorial ambition for the 2027 elections. While she has not made any official declaration, her actions suggest she is laying the groundwork for another run. Given her strong performance in the 2023 election, many believe she remains a formidable contender for the APC ticket.

In the 2023 governorship election, Binani secured 398,788 votes, compared to the 430,861 votes garnered by incumbent Governor Ahmadu Fintiri, according to INEC’s final tally after the supplementary poll. Her ability to amass such a significant number of votes, despite facing numerous challenges, has been described as a testament to her popularity and political strength. 

A unique political appeal

Binani has been praised for her direct engagement with voters, a strategy that distinguishes her from many other politicians in Nigeria, who often rely on intermediaries to connect with the electorate. 

This personal touch has endeared her to many in Adamawa and beyond, making her a political figure to watch in the coming years.

Analysts believe Binani’s chances of success in 2027 could be bolstered by the fact that Governor Fintiri will not be eligible for re-election, as he would have completed his second term by then. The governor himself has already hinted at the importance of his successor being a grassroots politician, someone who prioritises the welfare of the people and is willing to make sacrifices for the state’s progress—qualities many believe Binani embodies.

Binani’s political career has already seen her achieve several significant milestones. In 2022, she secured the APC governorship ticket after a fierce contest against five male candidates, including former governor Jibrilla Bindow and the current National Security Adviser, Malam Nuhu Ribadu.

In 2019, she became the only female senator from northern Nigeria in the 9th National Assembly, representing a remarkable achievement in a region where women often face considerable barriers to political participation. Before her tenure in the Senate, she served as a member of the House of Representatives for Yola North/Yola South/Girei federal constituency from 2011 to 2015.

However, her political journey has not been without its challenges, particularly in her quest to become Adamawa’s first female governor. Beyond the obstacles posed by Nigeria’s male-dominated political culture, Binani has had to contend with the additional burden of societal and cultural biases that often work against women aspiring for political office.

Her attempt to follow in the footsteps of the late Aisha Alhassan—popularly known as “Mama Taraba”—has been described as noteworthy. Mama Taraba, who died in 2021 at the age of 61, almost became Nigeria’s first elected female governor in 2015, when a tribunal overturned the election result in her favour. However, the decision was reversed by both the Appeal Court and the Supreme Court, a fate that Binani has, in some ways, mirrored.

In an earlier interview, Binani shared her vision and strategy for women and youth empowerment, saying: “During my campaigns, I told the women that voting for me would benefit their children. If they had a daughter, they’d be doing her a favour by voting for me; they’d be doing that favour for a sister, and to some extent, for their mother. I promised that I would prioritise women and youth issues, and especially the girl child, giving them preferential treatment.”

This emotional appeal resonated with a broad segment of the electorate, particularly women, who saw her candidacy as a transformative opportunity. 

Political analysts believe her message was far more than just political rhetoric, as it spoke to the deeper cultural shift some believe is needed in Nigerian politics for better representation and empowerment of women and young people.

Expert analysis on Binani’s political future

Sharing his perspective with Weekend Trust, Dr. Kabiru Sufi, a renowned political analyst, opined that it is expected that Binani will stage a comeback in 2027. 

After stepping away for a few months, likely to assess the 2023 polls and re-strategise, Dr. Sufi believes it was crucial for her to initiate her return early.

“What she did in the 2023 elections was remarkable and perhaps could be said to have never been done, considering the votes she garnered and how she emerged as the APC candidate. The support she received from women and youth, not just in Adamawa but across the country, was notable, and she won’t let that fade.

“But she must realise that securing the ticket in 2027 will present significant challenges, just as it did in 2023. She will also want to ensure she isn’t overshadowed by other strong political figures from her state who hold federal positions.

“What is certain is that if she emerges as the party’s candidate again, she will give the ruling PDP in the state a run for their money. Her presence will undoubtedly make the election more intriguing, both within and beyond Adamawa State. The support base she commands is significant,” he said.

Looking ahead to 2027

With the support of a solid political network that she has cultivated over two decades, Binani’s prospects for a second run at the governorship seem strong. 

Political analysts like Dr. Sufi have suggested that her experience, coupled with her reputation as a candidate who appeals to women and youth, could be the keys to her success in 2027 if she decides to test the waters again.