Is the Recent Dip in Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATIC) Forecasting a Major Altcoin Rally?

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On March 5, Bitcoin (BTC) shattered its previous all-time high, peaking at a staggering $69,324. But the triumph was short-lived as a flurry of substantial sell orders on Binance, including sell orders worth 300 BTC at $69,000 and 500 BTC at $70,000, swiftly plunged the price below the $60,000 mark.

This sudden downturn, which saw Bitcoin lose over $1,000 in a mere minute and nosedive to $59,700, sparked intense market volatility and catalyzed a staggering $1.1 billion in liquidations across various digital assets, predominantly impacting leveraged traders with $870 million in long positions. Notably, BTC showcased its resilience, managing to claw its way back to above $66,000, though still marking a 2% decline over 24 hours.

Amidst this whirlwind, the altcoin market became a beacon for analysts and investors alike, surging by an impressive 50% to $1.2 trillion in just the last month. However, major players like Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATIC) seemed to resist the trend, each experiencing over a 6% loss in value. This bearish pressure in a bullish market was surprisingly interpreted by market analysts as a positive sign for long-term investors.

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Following the trend set by Bitcoin's latest all-time high (ATH), Cardano (ADA) experienced a significant pullback after reaching a new yearly high of $0.8. This dip of 25% came amidst Bitcoin's own drop from its ATH, showcasing the interconnected nature of the crypto market.

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello suggested that ADA's recent pullback was a favorable development. He drew parallels between Cardano's (ADA) current market behavior and its trajectory during the last bull cycle, noting that a similar sharp pullback had occurred before a significant rally.

Cardano (ADA) Technical Analysis

In terms of technical analysis, ADA is currently trading between its first support at $0.613 and first resistance at $0.804.

Source: TradingView

The 10-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) at $0.724 is slightly above the 50-day EMA at $0.703, indicating a potential bullish sentiment in the short term. However, the 200-day EMA at $0.62 suggests that Cardano (ADA) has yet to establish a strong long-term upward trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.99 is hovering near the midpoint, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Stochastic %K shows some momentum at 68.61, but the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 29.17 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -43.67 suggest a lack of strong directional trend.

The MACD Level at 0.001 and Momentum at -0.053 further highlight the market's current indecision.

Cardano (ADA) Price Action – What’s next?

In a bullish scenario, ADA's trajectory could mimic its pattern from the last bull cycle, as Gambardello suggests. The "break of structure" observed in Cardano's (ADA) movement aligns with historical market behaviors, indicating a potential for a parabolic rise similar to the previous cycle. 

If ADA manages to breach $0.804 and sustain momentum, it could aim for the higher resistance levels of $0.879 and potentially $1.07.

Conversely, in a bearish scenario, failing to maintain the current support levels could see Cardano (ADA) retract towards lower supports at $0.613, $0.497, and possibly $0.306. 

Such a pullback, however, might not necessarily contradict the overall bullish market trend, as highlighted by Gambardello, and could represent a consolidation phase before a more significant rally.

Polygon (MATIC), a key player in the cryptocurrency space, is currently experiencing a significant phase in its market trajectory, closely linked to recent strategic developments. The blockchain network Astar, widely recognized in Japan's Web3 community, announced its full integration with Polygon's AggLayer through its Astar zkEVM. It will allow Astar users to access liquidity within the Polygon (MATIC) ecosystem, enabling seamless cross-chain transactions and enhancing user experience as if operating on a single chain.

Polygon’s AggLayer, a solution launched in February, rectifies blockchain limitations by connecting various Polygon layers. The release propelled MATIC's price to an 11-month high of $1.12 on March 5, despite facing substantial resistance through February.

Polygon (MATIC) Technical Analysis

From a technical analysis standpoint, Polygon (MATIC) is trading between its first support at $0.9957 and first resistance at $1.1513.

Source: TradingView

Its current price movement is closely aligned with EMAs. The 10-day EMA at $1.0708 is slightly above the 50-day EMA at $1.0589, indicating a potential for bullish momentum.

The RSI at 49.49 suggests a neutral market sentiment, while the Stochastic %K value at 60.26 points to a potential upward price movement.

However, the ADX at 24.32, along with a negative MACD at -0.001 and a slight negative Momentum at -0.0759, implies a cautious market outlook.

The CCI at -50.29 further supports this cautious sentiment.

Polygon (MATIC) Price Action – What’s Next?

In a bullish scenario, if Bitcoin continues its rally, MATIC could potentially capitalize on this momentum due to its high correlation of 0.9 with BTC. This could drive Polygon (MATIC) towards breaking its first resistance level and potentially aiming for the $1.2129 mark, a gateway for further rise beyond $1.3685.

However, in a bearish outlook, the increasing supply of MATIC on exchanges and the recent behavior of short-term traders could pose a threat. The growing concentration of these traders, who now hold approximately $782 million in MATIC, could lead to a sell-off for profit booking, thereby creating resistance and potentially causing a decline. This scenario would see Polygon (MATIC) struggling to maintain its current levels, with investors closely watching $0.9017 and $0.7461 as potential lines of defense.

In the wake of Bitcoin's dramatic rise and fall, Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATIC) have navigated through the market's volatility with distinct responses. ADA experienced a 25% dip after hitting a yearly high, echoing Bitcoin's trend, while MATIC reached an 11-month peak despite resistance, buoyed by strategic advancements with Astar's integration into Polygon's AggLayer. This synergy between technology and market dynamics presents a complex landscape for these altcoins, where Cardano's (ADA) recent pullback is seen as a potential setup for a rally, and Polygon's (MATIC) gains are weighed against the possibility of sell-offs by short-term traders.

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