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Israel’s conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah appear set to grind on, even if a wider Middle East war has been averted for now, analysts said.
The day after Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based militia, exchanged some of the biggest salvos since the start of their 10-month cross-border battle, both appeared on Monday to have stepped back from the brink of a bigger confrontation. Israel’s defense minister spoke on Sunday of “the importance of avoiding regional escalation,” while Hezbollah’s leader said “people can take a breath and relax.”
Still, the fundamental dynamics of their conflict, and that of Israel’s war in Gaza, remained unchanged, the analysts said. Israel and Hezbollah seemed poised to return to a low-level conflict, albeit one that could escalate at any point into a bigger war that could draw in Iran, Hezbollah’s benefactor. Hundreds of thousands of people in Israel and Lebanon remain displaced by the strikes. And Iran has yet to respond militarily to Israel’s assassination of a Hamas leader last month in Tehran.
“Strategically, the situation has not changed and we are where we were,” said Shira Efron, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.
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A truce in Lebanon is dependent on a truce in Gaza, which remains a distant prospect. Four days of meetings between Israeli officials and U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo concluded on Sunday without a breakthrough, although negotiators said talks would continue.
Hezbollah has said it will continue its battle until Israel agrees to a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. And its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech on Sunday that the militia reserved the right to attack again to avenge Israel’s killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month.
“This in practice means continuous attritional war, with constant risk of escalation with no end in sight,” Dr. Efron said. “In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of Israelis and millions of Palestinians continue to suffer amidst a region teetering on the edge.”
The focus, for now, will return to the Gaza cease-fire talks, which appeared stuck despite a renewed push by the United States and optimistic commentary from Biden administration officials.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is still opposed to clauses in the proposed truce agreement that would make it harder for Israel to resume battle after a weekslong pause, arguing that such a deal would allow Hamas to survive the war intact. Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition relies on lawmakers who have pledged to bring down his government if he agrees to such a deal, even as many Israelis publicly demand an agreement, saying it is the only way to free dozens of Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza.
Hamas, for its part, is determined to remain a force in postwar Gaza and has said it rejects any cease-fire that is temporary and does not ensure Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza. The group, along with Egypt, has pushed back strongly against Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence that Israel retain a military presence in a narrow strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which Israel has said is necessary to prevent Hamas from rearming through smuggling.
“Hamas is being asked to accept Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip, entirely or partly,” said Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a Palestinian research group in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
“Asking them to even consider such a condition is basically asking them to commit suicide, politically speaking,” Mr. Dalalsha added. “This is something Hamas would never, ever agree to.”
Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting.
— Patrick Kingsley reporting from Jerusalem
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A day after Israel and Hezbollah traded major cross-border attacks but swiftly moved to contain a bigger war, the focus in the Middle East returned on Monday to the effort to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza, where Israel’s 10-month-long war with Hamas is at the heart of rising regional tensions.
Four days of talks concluded on Sunday with no breakthrough, after senior Israeli and Hamas officials arrived in Cairo to meet with mediators. Despite a full-bore diplomatic push from the Biden administration, the two sides remain far apart on several critical issues, including Israeli demands to retain a military presence along Gaza’s border with Egypt. Both Hamas and Egypt, which is mediating the talks along with Qatar and the United States, oppose those demands.
One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations, said the senior-level talks in Cairo were constructive, and would continue with working-group discussions in the coming days. Hamas officials, as usual, did not participate in the meetings with Israeli and U.S. officials.
Negotiators in Cairo were working to refine an American proposal presented last week in Doha, Qatar, aimed at bridging key gaps between the two sides. The so-called bridging proposal builds on an earlier framework outlined by President Biden in May, and includes various amendments aimed at resolving the differences between Hamas and Israel, people briefed on the talks have said.
Under the proposal, the first phase would see a six-week cease-fire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel. People displaced from northern Gaza would be able to return to their homes, many of which lie in ruins. During that time, Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza.
The second phase envisions a permanent cease-fire, while the third consists of a multiyear reconstruction plan for Gaza and the return of the remains of deceased hostages.
On Thursday, Israeli officials met with those from the United States and Egypt. On Friday, the U.S. and Egyptian teams held a bilateral consultation to strategize ahead of the talks.
Egyptian and Qatari negotiators then met with Hamas to walk through the bridging proposal paragraph by paragraph. The Hamas negotiators highlighted points of disagreement, which were brought to Egyptian, Qatari, American and Israeli negotiators on Sunday.
The technical level discussions are meant to continue this week in Cairo, with the aim of getting to an agreement that can be implemented.
American officials declined to outline the points of disagreement in detail, arguing that negotiating in public could only complicate matters.
But among the most difficult issues remaining, another American official said, is whether Israeli forces will remain on the Gaza side of the border with Egypt, and if so, how many. Israeli officials have reduced their demands in recent days, agreeing to accept a fewer number of checkpoints. But both Egypt and Hamas — which wants a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — have been skeptical of any Israeli military presence on Gaza’s southern border.
