Live Updates: China and Canada Retaliate Against New Trump Tariffs

Canada imposed 25 percent tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods at 12:01 a.m. Eastern but did not specify which products would be affected. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said in a statement that the tariffs would extend to $125 billion of American goods in 21 days.

The administration’s latest tariffs — 10 percent on imports from China and 25 percent on most imports from Canada and Mexico — are likely to encourage some manufacturers to set up factories in the United States, instead of in other countries. They could also strain supply chains, add costs for American consumers and manufacturers and test diplomatic ties.

Here’s what you need to know:

Stock markets: European stock markets fell on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50, which represents the biggest publicly listed companies in the eurozone, Britain’s FTSE 100 and the DAX index in Germany, were all down. Shares in European carmakers that have big manufacturing operations in Mexico to supply the U.S. market, including Volkswagen and Stellantis, which owns Chrysler and Jeep, fell, too.

Mexico to respond: President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico was expected to address the tariffs at a news conference early on Tuesday. With nationalism strengthening as a result of the dispute, the Mexican leader has seen her approval ratings rise.

China’s reaction: China’s retaliation includes levies on U.S. food imports and halting the sale of Chinese goods to 15 American companies.

Canadian damage: Tariffs are likely to damage Canada’s economy, which is dependent on exports and tightly integrated with the American market. It remains unclear what lies behind Mr. Trump’s love-hate relationship with Canada.

Tariff basics: Trade wars were a feature of Mr. Trump’s first term. But his latest tariffs could broaden the scale of disruption. Canada, Mexico and China account for more than a third of the products brought into the United States.

In its announcement about halting imports of American logs, China’s customs agency said that bark beetles and longhorn beetles had been found in some of the shipments. China imported almost $3 billion of American wood last year, nearly 2 percent of overall Chinese imports from the United States. The customs agency also revoked the right of three international commodities firms to ship American soybeans to China.

Times had changed, she said: Mexico would not bow down to foreign governments.

Given the circumstances — President Trump’s steep tariffs against Mexico went into effect in the first minutes of Tuesday — Ms. Sheinbaum’s optics were fitting. As Mr. Trump once again targeted Mexico, using the hammer of tariffs as a negotiating tool, a sense of Mexican nationalism has been strengthened.

The Mexican government and businesses have rekindled a “Made in Mexico” campaign. Some Mexicans have called for boycotts of U.S. companies and products, while others have put together lists of Mexican stores and brands to support instead of American ones.

Ms. Sheinbaum is frequently featured on the front page of local newspapers with members of the country’s military or in front of a giant Mexican flag. Private companies have taken out nationalistic advertisements, one featuring the president leading the masses and carrying a banner saying, “Mexico united, never defeated!”

And Ms. Sheinbaum, who has been trying to balance a pro-Mexico drumbeat while advocating cooperative dialogue with American officials, has seen her approval ratings rise as high as 80 percent, according to one poll. She has not only succeeded a popular president, Andres Manuel López Obrador, who reshaped Mexican politics and was her mentor, but has come into her own at a time of global upheaval under Mr. Trump.

“There’s a lot of support for the president now,” said Juan Manuel Sánchez, 57, an artisan in Mexico City who also praised Ms. Sheinbaum’s crackdown on drug trafficking.

During his first term, Mr. Trump used tariffs to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and strike a new U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement, which he signed in 2020. He has used similar tactics now against Mexico and Canada, while arguing that too many illegal drugs and migrants are flowing from the two countries into the United States.

A month ago, Mr. Trump signed an executive order calling for 25 percent tariffs on Mexican imports. But less than a day before they were to go into effect, Mr. Trump and Ms. Sheinbaum spoke on the phone and announced an agreement to delay them for 30 days.

Under the terms of that deal, Mexico posted an additional 10,000 Mexican National Guards troops on the border to help stem the flow of fentanyl and migrants into the United States. In return, Ms. Sheinbaum said, the U.S. government would work to stop the flow of guns into Mexico.

Even though the number of migrant crossings at the southern border has dropped to once unthinkable levels since Mr. Trump took office in January, Mexican officials were significantly deterring migration to the United States months before. Last week, Mexico sent nearly 30 top cartel operatives wanted by American authorities to the United States, one of the largest such handovers in the history of the drug war.

“There’s a lot of unity in the country in the face of what is happening,” including Mr. Trump’s economic threats, Ms. Sheinbaum said on Monday, hours before the tariffs took effect.

Although Mr. Trump insisted on Monday that the tariffs would begin the next day, the cloud over Mexico from the north has loomed since his most recent presidential campaign. It led to uncertainty and frustration but also boosted national pride.

Agustin Barrios Gómez, a former Mexican congressman and a founding member of the nonprofit Mexican Council on Foreign Relations, said that even Mexicans who didn’t vote for Ms. Sheinbaum “understand that right now, Mexico’s national interest — beyond party politics — is to rally around our president.”

One reason for the surge in support for her, Mr. Barrios Gómez said, was to ensure Ms. Sheinbaum has enough political capital within the country to be in a stronger negotiating position with Mr. Trump come what may.

Nationalism is complicated in Mexico, Mr. Barrios Gómez said, because it is so intricately intertwined with the United States geographically, culturally and economically, as well as with immigration and security.

“We are not neighbors, we’re roommates,” he said. In other words, analysts said, the U.S. tariffs against Mexico will hurt both economies, as would the reciprocal tariffs suggested by Ms. Sheinbaum. (Mr. Trump is also threatening separate 25 percent tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports, which would affect Mexico.)

For Mexico, the tipping point against the United States has not been reached, Mr. Barrios Gómez said late last week before the tariffs went into effect, but “if you call someone your enemy enough, you might just turn them into one.”

The specter of a trade war between the countries has changed the perception in Mexico of Mr. Trump and of its relationship with the United States.

According to the Mexican polling film Buendía & Marquéz, the number of respondents in Mexico who believed the relationship between Ms. Sheibaum and Mr. Trump was at least good dropped significantly between last November and February, while the number of respondents who have a negative opinion of Mr. Trump jumped to 80 percent in mid-February from 66 percent in early January.

Mr. Trump has nevertheless praised Ms. Sheinbaum as a “marvelous woman” while mocking Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau. Mr. Trudeau, who has become increasingly unpopular at home, is entering his final days in office while Ms. Sheinbaum’s popular foundation is stronger. She resoundingly won election last summer and began her six-year term in October.

During her Monday morning news conference, Ms. Sheinbaum once again called for calm ahead of Mr. Trump’s tariffs deadline and said she hoped to strike a last-minute deal, which did not materialize. “Obviously we don’t want there to be tariffs,” she said, adding that her government would respond.

Since before Mr. Trump’s inauguration, her administration has been promoting what it calls “Plan Mexico,” a strategy meant to diversify its economy to make it less dependent on the United States, to reinvigorate Mexican manufacturing and propel the country to become one of the world’s top 10 economies. (It is currently the 15th largest, according to the International Monetary Fund.)

As part of that effort, Ms. Sheinbaum’s administration started the “Made in Mexico” drive, in which an official seal is placed on products made in the country that meet certain requirements. The seal, with an illustration of a Mexican eagle, was created in 1978 to promote Mexican goods and has been revived by presidents over the years.

As the threatened U.S. tariffs were paused a month ago, Mexico’s secretary of economy, Marcelo Ebrard, told companies that the government wanted to once again push the “Made in Mexico” seal.

Last week, Walmart Mexico, the largest private employer in the country with 200,000 workers, unveiled its efforts to put the “Made in Mexico” seal — with the added word “proudly” — in the aisles of its 3,000 stores throughout the country. Although Walmart is an American brand, Javier Treviño, Walmart Mexico’s senior vice president of corporate affairs, said the company wanted to show customers that it is a Mexican entity and that most of the products it sells are made within the nation.

The campaign “is very important for us because we have to strengthen investment and confidence in Mexico and ensure that the economy can grow, because the environment is not easy,” Mr. Treviño, a former Mexican congressman, said in an interview.

Other big companies have joined Ms. Sheinbaum’s push, including Grupo Modelo, the brewing giant that makes Corona and Modelo beers, which announced it would put new “Made in Mexico” caps on bottles.

On Saturday, Mr. Sánchez, the Mexico City artisan, was at his neighborhood market, which, he said, proved that he prefers to shop locally. Before Mr. Trump’s tariffs went into effect, he said he might consider boycotting U.S. companies and products if they did.

Unlike in Canada, where locals have been shunning American products and buying more Canadian flags since Mr. Trump threatened the tariffs, Mr. Sánchez said that Mexicans were already nationalistic and that most had a flag.

“But when something very serious happens here,” he said, “we all unite.”

Maria Abi-Habib contributed reporting from Mexico City.

Beijing also said it took action against dozens of other companies from the United States as part of a volley of action against Washington in retaliation for another of tariffs.

Chinese officials singled out 15 companies, including the drone maker Skydio, for punitive trade measures to “safeguard national security and interests.” It also said it added another 10 American companies to what it calls an “unreliable entities list” preventing them from doing any business in China.

Both blacklists have increasingly become go-to tactics for Beijing in striking back at Washington in their escalating trade war. But in the past, Beijing has taken narrower action, targeting defense companies related to arms sales with Taiwan and companies with little to no presence in China.

This time Beijing went further and banned Illumina from doing business in China, accusing it of violating market transaction rules and discriminating against Chinese companies. Beijing put the company on a blacklist last month, together with PVH, the clothing maker behind Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger.

Illumina said it was assessing Beijing’s action “to fully understand the impact on our operations in China,” but that it would continue to serve its customers in China.

“We respect and abide by Chinese laws and regulations, and we are committed to operating in compliance with the latest guidelines from the Ministry of Commerce,” an Illumina spokeswoman said in a statement.

Up until now, China has been reluctant to take retaliatory swipes that would affect American companies’ businesses for fear of spooking foreign investors. Even after targeting Illumina, Chinese officials sought to pre-empt concerns.

China targets only “a small number of foreign entities that endanger China’s national security in accordance with the law,” the commerce ministry said in a statement, adding that it “welcomes companies from all over the world to invest and start businesses in China.”

The action on companies was part of a broader response taken in the minutes after President Trump’s latest round of tariffs. The retaliation from Beijing included tariffs on food imported from the United States.

“For China, the ultimate scenario would be a total reduction in trade hostilities with the U.S.,” said Joe Mazur, an analyst at Trivium, a research firm. “That is not going to happen, and so the only thing they can do right now is make an example of a handful of companies.”

China and the United States appear to be headed for more trade collisions even as Chinese academics and former diplomats have traveled to Washington in recent weeks to try to initiate conversations for a deal.

Beijing may be more emboldened now to take further punitive action against American companies in China, Mr. Mazur said.

“In sending the message,” he said, “you are making other American companies wary of their position in China.”

Zixu Wang and Li You contributed research.

China has long denied American accusations that it supplies most of the ingredients used by fentanyl laboratories in Mexico and elsewhere and has contended that the United States should do more to discourage demand for the drug.

China also banned a biotech company called Illumina from doing business in the country, a signal that Beijing is widening its net to include companies not related to the military on its “unreliable entity list.” It accused Illumina, which is based in California, of violating market transaction rules and discriminating against Chinese companies.

But even as China was announcing its own penalties on American companies and goods, Lou held out the possibility of a negotiated climbdown from a trade war. “We hope the U.S. can work in the same direction as China and find a solution through equal-footed consultation,” he said.

The finance ministry imposed 15 percent tariffs on imports of chicken, wheat, corn and cotton from the United States and 10 percent tariffs on imports of “sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.”

The tariffs will make good on President Trump’s campaign promise to rework America’s trade relations, and they are likely to encourage some manufacturers who want to sell to American customers to set up factories in the United States, instead of other countries.

But by altering the terms of trade between the United States and its largest economic partners, the tariffs will also probably rattle supply chains, strain some of the country’s most important diplomatic relationships and add significant costs for American consumers and manufacturers.

Canada, Mexico and China are the three largest trading partners of the United States, accounting for more than 40 percent of both U.S. imports and exports last year. The three countries supply the bulk of crude oil, beer, copper wire, toilet paper, hot-rolled iron, cucumbers and chocolate imported by the United States, as well as a dizzying array of other products.

The tariffs came as somewhat of a surprise, given that Mexico and Canada have gone to great lengths in recent weeks to convince the president that they were stepping up enforcement of their borders. The president initially threatened in November to impose the tariffs, saying that the three countries were not doing enough to halt the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.

On Monday, however, Mr. Trump appeared to change his terms, saying that Canada and Mexico needed to relocate auto factories and other manufacturing to the United States.

“What they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs,” he said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said on Monday evening that his country would respond with its own tariffs of 25 percent on $155 billion of American goods. Tariffs on $30 billion would go into effect Tuesday, and the remainder in 21 days, he said.

Mr. Trudeau said that less than 1 percent of the fentanyl intercepted at the U.S. border came from Canada, but that the country had still worked to stop its flow, pushing fentanyl seizures to near zero by January.

“Canada will not let this unjustified decision go unanswered,” Mr. Trudeau said.

The Mexican government had also gone to great lengths to step up its border enforcement, including cracking down on the cartels producing fentanyl and handing over dozens of top cartel operatives to the United States. Mexico also pledged to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to help deter migration, building on earlier efforts to disassemble migrant caravans well before they reach the border with the United States.

Activity at the border had already calmed by the time Mr. Trump took office in January, but in recent weeks border crossings have declined to the lowest in recent history. At one point in February, U.S. personnel on the Mexican border encountered only 200 migrants in a single day, levels that were once unthinkable.

In Canada, which is a minuscule source of fentanyl compared with Mexico, the threat of tariffs sparked frustration and outrage. It also led to a surge of patriotism and anti-American sentiment, which was intensified by Mr. Trump’s repeated calls for the annexation of Canada.

Shortly after Mr. Trump, as president-elect, first made the tariff threat in November, Mr. Trudeau flew to Florida to meet him at Mar-a-Lago, the president’s estate and private club. Canada began assembling a list of retaliatory tariffs and put together a plan to increase security at its border. That included appointing a “fentanyl czar,” leasing Black Hawk helicopters for Royal Canadian Mounted Police patrols and buying a fleet of drones.

Days before the tariffs were imposed, some business leaders who are members of a Canada-U.S. relations group that Mr. Trudeau set up after the tariff threat were already pessimistic that the lobbying, the alliance building and the border strengthening would bring another last-minute reprieve.

Steve MacKinnon, Canada’s employment minister, said on Monday that the government would move to introduce extra wage supports for workers who are left jobless because of the tariffs.

Economists have estimated that the tariffs will lower economic growth throughout North America, but that they will hit Canada and Mexico the hardest, given that those countries send roughly 80 percent of their exports to the United States.

In contrast, China sends only about 15 percent of its exports to the United States, so it is much less exposed to the tariffs. While Canada and Mexico worked hard to appease Mr. Trump, China did not make similar overtures. The Chinese government did not want to be seen as pleading and was wary of offering concessions before it understood the parameters of the negotiation, people familiar with their thinking said.

In a statement, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said China was “strongly dissatisfied” and would take countermeasures to “safeguard its own rights and interests.” The spokesperson accused the United States of disregarding facts and international trade rules, and described the episode as “bullying.”

The tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China come in addition to a raft of other tariff proposals Mr. Trump has made this year. The administration is set to introduce tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum on March 12, and has suggested that it will introduce a variety of others, including on foreign cars, in April. Mr. Trump has also opened trade investigations that could result in tariffs on copper and timber.

It remains to be seen whether business executives can persuade Mr. Trump to walk back any of these plans. Gustavo Flores-Macías, a professor of government and public policy at Cornell University, said the stock market had already erased the gains of a “Trump bump” since the president’s election.

Mr. Flores-Macías said the tariffs would harm industries, particularly the automotive sector. Just short of 40 percent of the cars and trucks sold in the United States are imported, according to JATO Dynamics, an automotive research firm, with Mexico the biggest supplier of imported cars.

“The U.S. economy is larger and can better absorb the negative consequences of a trade war, but a simultaneous trade war with its three main trade partners (once tariffs against China are included) will affect all parties negatively,” Mr. Flores-Macías wrote in an email.

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents workers in the aerospace, railroad, health care and automotive industries in the United States and Canada, strongly condemned what it called a “reckless decision” and “an unjustified attack on a trusted ally.”

“Canada is not the enemy,” said Brian Bryant, the group’s international president. “This decision will disrupt industries that rely on integrated supply chains, hurting workers on both sides of the border.”

“Tariffs are taxes on Americans and American business, not foreign governments or companies,” said Gary Shapiro, the chief executive of the Consumer Technology Association, a trade group for tech companies. “Adding tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China will raise prices for Americans at a time when inflation and affordability is their top concern.”

Other executives say that they support the goal of fighting the fentanyl trade, but that tariffs will have other economic effects, like chilling hiring and weighing on consumers.

Casey Hite, the chief executive of Aeroflow Health, which provides breast pumps, CPAP machines, diabetic testing kits and diapers to people covered by insurance, said

that if tariffs erased the profit margins for certain medical devices, his company would probably not offer those models. That would mean patients would have fewer breast pumps or CPAP machines to choose from.

The company, whose headquarters are in Asheville, N.C., and which employs more than 1,000 people, may also pull back on hiring and other expansions, he said. As time goes on, Aeroflow will work to renegotiate its contracts with health insurers, which will probably pass on their costs to patients.

“In the short term, tariffs can limit access,” Mr. Hite said. “In the long term, folks will see that in the form of increased insurance rates.”

Jack Ewing contributed reporting.

The rebuke of President Trump’s tariff plans, a core part of his new administration’s economic policy, came just days before sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico were expected to go into effect. Mr. Trump said on Monday that tariffs that will add a 25 percent fee on all imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10 percent for Chinese goods, would take effect on Tuesday.

Mr. Trump had delayed the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, and the apparent confirmation that they would be imposed this time sent stock prices reeling. The S&P 500 fell nearly 2 percent, its worst day of trading so far this year.

Berkshire Hathaway has recently built up a large investment in Treasury bills, government debt that’s a less risky alternative to corporate bonds and stocks. “You always have to ask that question in economics: And then what?” Mr. Buffett said in the interview. “Prices will be higher 10 years from now, 20 years from now, 30 years from now.”

He was also asked about his thoughts on Elon Musk’s involvement in Mr. Trump’s administration, but mostly deflected the question.

“I better not get into that,” he said with a laugh. “I’ve talked to Elon a few times.”

The afternoon slump in the markets followed Mr. Trump’s statement at the White House on Monday that he would move forward on Tuesday with broad 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the United States’ two biggest trading partners. Mr. Trump has also said he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on goods from China, on top of the 10 percent that took effect last month.

Investors fear that the tariffs will raise prices in the United States, pushing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer and risking tipping the economy into a downturn.

Monday’s sell-off came after the stock market had already lost some of its shine in February. The S&P 500 ended about 1.4 percent lower for the month, as the Trump administration’s policy priorities and weak consumer sentiment made investors uneasy.

On Monday, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, which are typically more exposed to the ebb and flow of the economy, fell 3.1 percent, pushing further into its own correction; the index is down more than 14 percent since it peaked in late November. The Vix volatility index, also known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose sharply to 24 points, before easing to around 22, still above its long-term average.

Mr. Trump’s comments on tariffs extended the stock market’s declines from earlier in the day, when a February reading for a key manufacturing index came in weaker than investors had expected, a sign of slower growth in the sector.

And then there is the transactional view, that Mr. Trump sees the acquisition of Canada as the 51st state as the ultimate real estate deal that would seal his presidential legacy.

As Mr. Trump prepares to push ahead with a new round of tariffs on the United States’ neighbors to the north and south, he has expressed a special brand of loathing for Canada. The bullying of a country whose most prominent stereotype is that its people are “nice” has led to political upheaval in Canada and created both consternation and speculation about why Mr. Trump wants to engage in a trade war with one of America’s biggest trading partners.

“I can’t quite figure it out,” said Stephen Moore, the Heritage Foundation economist and former adviser to Mr. Trump. “Whether it’s some kind of strategic leverage, I don’t know.”

Noting that there is “no love lost” between the president and Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Moore added: “With Trump, politics is personal.”

Mr. Trump has threatened to hit Mexico and Canada with 25 percent tariffs on all imports on Tuesday unless the countries do more to prevent migrants and drugs from flowing into the United States. On Saturday, the president picked another trade fight with Canada, this time over lumber.

Intrigue abounds in Canada about why Mr. Trump has repeatedly belittled a neighbor and threatened to destabilize its economy with tariffs, a process that has brought relations between the two countries to a low point not seen in decades.

In contrast to the close and supportive relationship that Mr. Trudeau, who is entering his final week in office, enjoyed with another U.S. president, Barack Obama, his relationship with Mr. Trump has been fractious.

In 2018, following the Group of 7 summit meeting in Charlevoix, Quebec, Mr. Trump heckled Mr. Trudeau on social media, accusing him of being “very dishonest and weak” and of making up “false statements” while suggesting that he might impose tariffs on Canadian-made autos.

While Mr. Trudeau was generally circumspect in his public remarks about Mr. Trump during the president’s first administration, the two men have dramatically different personal and political styles. Mr. Trump bombastically denigrates people he perceives as opponents, whereas Mr. Trudeau often speaks about the value of bringing people together, what he once called a “sunny ways” approach to political life.

In candid remarks to a group of business leaders last month that was captured by a microphone, Mr. Trudeau offered a theory for Mr. Trump’s Canada obsession that is widely shared in the country.

“Not only does the Trump administration know how many critical minerals we have, but that may be even why they keep talking about absorbing us and making us the 51st state,” Mr. Trudeau told the gathering in Toronto.

“They’re very aware of our resources,” Mr. Trudeau said, “of what we have, and they very much want to be able to benefit from those.”

He added: “But Mr. Trump has it in mind that one of the easiest ways of doing that is absorbing our country. And it is a real thing.”

Mr. Trump does have a particular affinity for minerals. He has been pushing to broker a deal to secure access to Ukraine’s supply of rare earths as he seeks to broker an agreement to end its war with Russia.

As a businessman, Mr. Trump had two dealings with Canada that, while relatively limited, were both failures. The Toronto hotel and condominium project, owned by a Toronto investor who licensed the Trump name and hired a Trump company to manage it, went into receivership in 2016. The following year, a hotel owned by Malaysian investors bearing the Trump name, again under license and with a similar management contract, opened in Vancouver, British Columbia. (Promotional material exaggerated the building’s height.) It failed, as well.

Both hotels, which now operate under different names and management, were magnets for protesters in a country where Mr. Trump has long been unpopular for his “America First” views and disparagement of Canada. Before the Vancouver opening, the city’s mayor at the time, Gregor Robertson, wrote to the building’s owners asking that they not use the Trump name on it.

“Trump’s name and brand have no more place on Vancouver’s skyline than his ignorant ideas have in the modern world,” Mr. Robertson wrote.

Before delving into politics, Mr. Trump expressed little ill will toward Canada.

In 2012, when the Obama administration was delaying a decision on approving the Keystone XL Pipeline, which would have transported oil from Canada to the United States, Mr. Trump declared on social media that the project must move forward.

“We need to use our resources and support allies like Canada,” Mr. Trump said.

But by 2015, his perceived failings of the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico became a central issue of Mr. Trump’s first presidential campaign. Mr. Trump routinely called the deal a “disaster” for American workers, and prioritized scrapping the pact as a first order of business if he won the election.

An agreement to overhaul the trade deal was signed in 2020 after fraught negotiations between the three countries that often grew contentious. At one point, Mr. Trump suggested leaving Canada on the sidelines and proceeding with a deal between the United States and Mexico.

Now back in office, Mr. Trump has made clear that the agreement he signed did not do enough for the United States and must be rewritten. In recent days he has lashed out at Chrystia Freeland, the Canadian official who negotiated it on behalf of Canada.

“She’s a whack,” Mr. Trump said of Ms. Freeland, who was Canada’s deputy prime minister and finance minister during the president’s first term, in an interview with The Spectator.

As Mr. Trump has wielded the threat of new tariffs on Canada over the last month, his tone toward the departing prime minister has been even more derisive. He has nicknamed Mr. Trudeau “governor” amid persistent suggestions that the United States might annex Canada.

Mr. Trump even called for the former Canadian hockey player Wayne Gretzky to run for prime minister, suggesting late last year that he would “win easily.” Mr. Gretzky, who does not support Canada’s joining the United States, has faced backlash at home from citizens who view him as a traitor because of his association with Mr. Trump.

The insults have led to a boom in nationalism in Canada, including “Made in Canada” Facebook groups. In one group, which has more than a million members, Canadians compared notes on pancake mixes that are made in Canada and offered recommendations on flavors of Cove Soda, a potential alternative to Coca-Cola.

“There’s a generalized sense of patriotism that has not been evident in Canada in many years in response to Trump and Trump’s hostility,” said Ira Wells, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Victoria College.

But Mr. Trump appears unfazed by Canada’s declarations of independence. He indicated last week that the United States was also prepared to sever ties with Canada without changes to the trade relationship between the two countries.

The United States, Mr. Trump said, has no need for Canadian products such as lumber, and he asserted that Canada could not survive without American military protection and favorable trade terms.

“I love Canada, I love the people of Canada,” Mr. Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the White House. “It’s not fair for us to be supporting Canada — If we don’t support them, they don’t subsist as a nation.”

Now it’s bracing for what could be another shock to its business: the tariffs that President Trump is threatening to impose on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. About a third of the nearly one million cars Nissan sold in the United States last year were assembled in Mexican plants.

“If it kicks in,” the automaker’s chief executive, Makoto Uchida, said in an earnings conference call last month, “that is going to be a huge impact to profit.”

Almost all automakers would be affected by the tariffs. But the impact could fall most heavily on those already facing financial trouble. That includes not just Nissan but also Stellantis, the maker of Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram vehicles, which is racing to reorganize and streamline its operations.

Mr. Trump has suggested levies of as much as 25 percent on most goods manufactured in Canada and Mexico — both trading partners of the United States and members of a North American trade bloc that has operated essentially as a tariff-free trade zone for the last three decades.

A tariff of that size would significantly increase automakers’ costs, raise the prices consumers pay for new cars and trucks, and disrupt complex supply chains that often involve engines, transmissions and other components crossing borders several times before finished vehicles arrive on dealer lots.

The Trump administration has not yet explained how the tariffs would apply to U.S.-made engines and other parts that are sent to Canadian and Mexican plants before returning to the United States in completed vehicles.

For many automakers and parts suppliers, the tariffs would probably force them to cut jobs and production, and rethink their manufacturing strategies in North America.

Anderson Economic Group, a consulting firm in East Lansing, Mich., estimates that tariffs of 25 percent would add $1,000 to $4,000 to the price of a new vehicle, and as much as $10,000 if manufacturers are unable to take steps to reduce the impact.

“Manufacturers and suppliers are going to get stuck eating some of the cost that is imposed on them in a hasty tariff, as sticker prices on retail cars and existing sales contracts cannot be changed immediately,” the firm’s chief executive, Patrick Anderson, said.

Last week, Stellantis reported that net income in 2024 fell 70 percent, to 5.5 billion euros, or $5.7 billion. Its chief executive resigned late last year, and the company may not have a replacement for several more months.

In a recent earnings call, John Elkann, the automaker’s chairman, said that last year “is a year we are not proud of.”

Mr. Elkann acknowledged that the tariffs could make a turnaround harder for Stellantis. About a third of its highly profitable Ram pickups are assembled in a plant in Saltillo, Mexico. It also makes two Jeep models at a second Mexican plant, in Toluca. It makes Chrysler Pacifica minivans at a plant in Windsor, Ontario, and is scheduled to begin making the Dodge Charger in the same factory this year. A second plant, in Brampton, Ontario, is being retooled, with plans to make Jeeps there when it reopens.

Mr. Elkann said the company was preparing a series of measures to limit the impact of tariffs, but declined to provide details. It is possible that the automaker could increase Ram production in its U.S. truck plants and cut output from Saltillo.

“We are prepared and have different scenarios in place,” Mr. Elkann said. “Which of these scenarios will play out is premature for us to discuss.”

Like Stellantis, General Motors makes a significant portion of its pickup trucks in Mexico, in addition to the Chevrolet Blazer and GMC Terrain sport utility vehicles. It has said it could soften the blow of any tariffs by adjusting its production to make more vehicles in U.S. plants and import fewer from Mexico and Canada.

But G.M. is on much stronger financial footing than other large automakers. The company’s sales have been growing in North America, its most profitable market, and it has been scaling back struggling divisions, including its operations in China, and has shuttered its self-driving taxi division, Cruise.

Ford Motor — another manufacturer in the midst of a turnaround — makes the Mustang Mach-E electric vehicle in Mexico. It also has a plant in Canada that is scheduled to start making large pickup trucks next year. While a majority of its models are assembled in U.S. plants, it relies on Mexican plants and suppliers for a quarter or more of the parts that go into many of its models.

Ford’s chief executive, Jim Farley, said in a recent investor presentation that tariffs would “blow a hole” in the U.S. auto industry.

Volkswagen could also feel a squeeze from tariffs as it works to cut costs and reinvigorate its bottom line.

In 2024, Volkswagen sold more than 230,000 Mexican-made vehicles in the United States, about 60 percent of its sales in the country, the company said.

That includes three of Volkswagen’s top-selling vehicles in the United States — the Jetta sedan and the Taos and Tiguan S.U.V.s. The company has one factory in the United States, in Chattanooga, Tenn., where it makes other S.U.V.s.

For Nissan, tariffs could force a broad reshaping of its manufacturing footprint. New levies on goods made in Canada and Mexico would raise Nissan’s costs at a time when it is scrambling to slash expenses.

Amid a global slump in sales, the automaker reported a loss of 14.1 billion yen, or $93.6 million, for the three-month period from October through December, compared with a profit of ¥29.1 billion in the same period in 2023.

The company also revised down its outlook, saying it expected a loss of ¥80 billion in the fiscal year that ends March 31.

As part of its turnaround plan, Nissan aims to cut global production by about 20 percent, which would include closing three plants and shedding some 9,000 workers. Since ending merger talks with Honda, the company has been looking for a new partner or investor to support its recovery effort.

Mr. Trump’s proposed tariffs would complicate that task. Last year, Nissan sold more than 300,000 Mexican-made cars in the United States. They include the Sentra, Versa and Kicks models.

Mr. Uchida said Nissan could shift production of those models to plants in Japan, a country Mr. Trump has not targeted for new tariffs — at least so far.

“Some of these models could be produced in Japan,” he said. “So that’s one backup plan to respond to the possible 25 percent tariff.”

China never made these kinds of overtures and, in Mr. Trump’s view, did not take any big moves to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. So on Feb. 4, Mr. Trump moved forward with imposing a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports. Last week, the president said that on March 4 he would add another 10 percent on top of all existing Chinese tariffs.

Mr. Trump is moving quickly to transform the U.S.-China trade relationship. The Chinese are moving much more cautiously and deliberately as they try to assess Mr. Trump and determine what it is he actually wants from China. Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have held calls with their Chinese counterparts. But a call between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has failed to materialize.

The situation underscores the quandary for foreign leaders in dealing with a president as unpredictable and unconventional as Mr. Trump, who is making substantial changes to trade terms with little advance notice or preparation.

The Chinese do not want to initiate a conversation because they do not want to be seen as pleading, and are wary of offering concessions before they understand the parameters of the debate, people familiar with the discussions said. Instead, Chinese officials, academics and others close to the government have been holding discreet conversations to try to determine Mr. Trump’s motives, while floating various aspects of a potential trade deal between the countries to assess the Americans’ reaction.

“With my experience with the Chinese, they are suspicious in the initial rounds of a negotiation that there are hidden traps or other reasons to be cautious,” said Michael Pillsbury, a China expert who advises the Trump administration on dealing with the country.

The Chinese side has conveyed they would like to work with the United States on mutually beneficial measures. But they have been struggling to identify people in the United States that they see as reliable channels for communication, according to a person close to the Chinese government.

They are also trying to assess the significance of some recent steps by the administration, like a memorandum that proposed strict limits on investment between the countries. Mr. Trump publicly contradicted that memo days after he signed it, saying he welcomed Chinese investment.

“I think the Chinese are in a wait and listen mode,” said Myron Brilliant, who has spent years working with businesses to understand the Chinese and recently returned from a trip to China. “They’re taking in all kinds of input, they’re beginning their consultations, they’re not pushing the panic button just yet.”

“There is a willingness, an appetite to do a deal with the Trump administration, but China doesn’t want preconditions on that, and seeks more clarity on the parameters of a deal,” said Mr. Brilliant, a senior counselor at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, an advisory firm.

In late February, a delegation including Cui Tiankai, the former Chinese ambassador to the United States, met with representatives of think tanks in Washington, according to more than half a dozen people familiar with the discussions.

Over meetings and dinners, the Chinese delegation conveyed hope that the countries could reach an accommodation, and floated ideas for a potential trade deal, including significant purchases of American agricultural products and Chinese investment in the United States, several people said.

They called for treating China as an equal partner and criticized past measures taken by the Biden administration to “contain” China, like export controls. The delegation also threatened that, if further U.S. tariffs went into effect, China could withdraw a law enforcement package that it had put together to combat the fentanyl trade, which included information that could be used to prosecute Chinese companies, one of the people said. They acknowledged that the Chinese economy was struggling and that more tariffs could hurt it.

Current and former advisers and others familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking say he has expressed interest in striking a wide-ranging deal with Mr. Xi, which could involve Chinese purchases and investment, as well as cooperation on issues like nuclear security.

But Mr. Trump also believes that China reneged on the deal he signed with it in 2020 by not purchasing enough products. Mr. Trump also has no aversion to ramping up the pressure on Beijing by imposing tariffs, seeing them as a source of leverage in negotiations.

Mr. Trump has said he has a great relationship with Mr. Xi and would like the Chinese to invest in the United States. When asked in February if he would do a trade deal with China, Mr. Trump responded, “It’s possible.”

“We did a great trade deal with China,” he said. “The problem is that Biden didn’t push them to adhere to it.”

In an interview on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said that instead of stopping the manufacturing of fentanyl, the Chinese were giving “the maximum subsidy” to people making the ingredients.

“The Chinese need to stop this murder of Americans,” he said.

The tariffs that Mr. Trump has threatened to impose on China since coming into office are already roughly comparable to those he imposed during his first administration, said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. In 2018, Mr. Trump put tariffs ranging from 7.5 to 25 percent on more than $350 billion of Chinese imports, levies that remain in effect.

“It’s still early days,” Mr. Kennedy said. “This should be seen as the floor of what’s imposed, not the ceiling.”

Beijing has so far been cautious in retaliating, answering Mr. Trump’s first volley of tariffs with a more limited number of its own. But it has signaled that it is willing to go further, possibly using its dominance in the global supply chain to exact pain.

The Chinese delegation that included Mr. Cui had come to New York as China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, visited the United Nations. While Mr. Wang did not continue on to Washington, according to one source, the Chinese embassy helped to arrange meetings for Mr. Cui in the nation’s capital.

Senior Communist Party officials including Fang Xinghai, the former deputy chief of China’s markets regulator, and the economist Zhu Min, also traveled to Washington and met with some members of the think tank community and government.

The Chinese appear to be exploring the best points of contact for their government. In the previous Trump administration, the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, served as an important go-between, as did private sector figures. Recently, the Chinese have been probing the role that Elon Musk — who has extensive business interests in China through Tesla — will play in the Trump administration.

Privately, the Chinese have indicated a willingness to start negotiating a deal but want to know that they have direct access to Mr. Trump.

“There seems to be a sense that Beijing is blaming what has happened on the poor communication channels,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a research group in Washington.

Chinese academics and think tank officials have begun floating various ideas for a trade deal. One proposal is for the Chinese to make major investments in the United States in areas like electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, which could create an estimated 500,000 U.S. jobs, according to one person with direct knowledge of the proposal. In an unusual move, Chinese companies would be willing to license technology to American partners and hold minority stakes in ventures to mitigate national security concerns, the person said.

Another tentative offer is the purchase of goods and services from the United States in agriculture, aerospace, energy and possibly even technology. The Chinese have also suggested buying more U.S. Treasuries, and honed in on a concern Mr. Trump recently voiced about a move by a handful of nations, including China and Russia to create a new reserve currency, threatening the U.S. dollar. The Chinese have proposed Beijing could stand down on that effort.

Chinese diplomats and academics have indicated that Beijing might also help the United States achieve a deal between Russia and Ukraine and assist in Ukraine’s reconstruction.

In return, the Chinese have suggested that the United States should commit to stabilizing the economic relationship. That could mean refraining from further tariffs and technology controls, and allowing more Chinese investment in the United States.

Given national security concerns in the United States about closer ties with China, it’s not clear that the two sides could find agreement on any of these issues. And some analysts say that Mr. Trump’s moves to ratchet up tariffs are making any conciliation from the Chinese less likely, since Mr. Xi will not want to look as if he’s caving to Mr. Trump.

“We are watching opportunities fly by and the longer you wait, the more hostility there is in the room and less time there is for both sides to come to an agreement,” Ms. Sun said.

Minho Kim contributed reporting.

Mr. Trump has offered various rationales for the tariffs, which were supposed to go into effect at the beginning of February but were suspended for 30 days. He says the United States has been destabilized by large numbers of unauthorized migrants, as well as large quantities of fentanyl, crossing the border from Canada. U.S. government statistics do not support either claim.

Mr. Trump has also claimed that Americans “subsidize Canada” by providing hundreds of billions of dollars a year — though he has not provided any evidence — and has urged companies to move their plants out of Canada to the United States. Mr. Trump has complained about Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which is mostly driven by oil and gas exports and totaled $63 billion last year.

Whatever the reason, there is widespread consensus in Canada that tariffs would inflict major damage on the country’s economy, which is dependent on exports as well as industries that are tightly integrated with the American market.

Jean Simard, the president of the Aluminium Association of Canada, recalled the effect of a 10 percent U.S. tariff on Canadian aluminum exports during the first Trump administration.

“The 10 percent tariffs years ago were highly disruptive,” Mr. Simard said. “Twenty-five percent tariffs will be highly destructive.”

Border Response

Just 19 kilograms of fentanyl were intercepted last year at the Canada-U.S. border, compared with almost 9,600 kilograms at the border with Mexico, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. And an investigation by The Globe and Mail, a newspaper in Toronto, found that the Canadian figure was inflated by the inclusion of seizures that were not related to the border.

U.S. authorities last year arrested roughly 24,000 people crossing illegally from Canada into the United States, compared with more than two million people who were apprehended at the southern border.

Still, Mr. Trudeau’s government moved swiftly to placate Mr. Trump’s concern about both issues by investing 1.3 billion Canadian dollars (about $900 million) on a series of measures to fortify the border.

They included the appointment of a “fentanyl czar,” providing the Royal Canadian Mounted Police with two Black Hawk helicopters to monitor the 5,525-mile-long border, assigning a large number of its officers to border patrol and purchasing of a variety of electronic surveillance devices, including drones.

The increased border security has led to the apprehension of a small number of people entering Canada from the United States.

While Mr. Trump said last week that he had seen improvement at both borders on migration, he added that he was not satisfied with how Canada and Mexico handled fentanyl smuggling.

Immediate Effects

While Mr. Trump insists that Canadian exporters will cover the cost of the tariffs, the levies would have to be paid by American importers. It is unclear if they would be able to recover the cost from Canadian firms.

The result, an overwhelming majority of economists agree, would be inflation and supply disruption in the United States, while Canadian industries could face large-scale layoffs.

Mr. Simard said that just the threat of the tariffs had already significantly raised the cost of aluminum in North America. If the tariffs go into effect, he estimates, the resulting aluminum price increases will add about $3,000 to the cost of making a Ford F-150 pickup truck.

Automotive trade between the two countries is roughly equivalent, and many auto parts cross the border several times before winding up in an assembled vehicle.

Because 25 percent is far higher than the profit margins on cars and trucks, as well as the parts used to make them, industry executives predict that parts makers would soon stop shipping and factories would quickly close in all three countries, laying off thousands of workers.

“A 25 percent tariff across the Mexico and Canadian border will blow a hole in the U.S. industry that we have never seen,” Jim Farley, the chief executive of the Ford Motor Company, said last month.

American farmers would also face increased prices for potash, a vital fertilizer. About 80 percent of potash in the United States comes from Canada because of limited U.S. reserves.

No Desirable Choices

Mr. Trump has repeatedly suggested that the easiest way for Canada to avoid tariffs is to become the 51st U.S. state. His call for Canada’s annexation, as well as his repeated denigration of it as a viable nation, has infuriated many Canadians. That’s already led to calls to boycott American goods, caused Canadians to cancel U.S. vacations and rekindled affection for the maple leaf flag.

Mr. Trudeau has promised that Canada is prepared to respond with tariffs on U.S. imports. It would initially target 30 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of products, including Kentucky bourbon, from Republican states whose elected officials might have sway with Mr. Trump.

There have been proposals to cut off shipments of oil, gas and electricity to the United States or impose steep export taxes on those products.

While the tariffs are a clear violation of the free trade deal among Canada, Mexico and the United States that Mr. Trump renegotiated during his first administration, using its dispute-settlement system to strike levies down could take years. Nor is it clear that Mr. Trump would accept any ruling against the United States.

More to Come

Canada also faces a global 25 percent tariff Mr. Trump has promised to apply on steel and aluminum. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of both materials to the United States, and Mr. Trump has suggested that those tariffs will be stacked on top of the 25 percent tariff he has promised will come on Tuesday.

He has also talked about creating specific tariffs against automobiles and copper.

And next month, Mr. Trump plans to introduce a worldwide reciprocity-based tariff system. It would set tariffs based on other countries’ policies that affect trade with the United States, such as tariffs, taxes and subsidies. These were the terms of the trading relationship between Canada and the United States in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

The potential effect on Canada is unclear. Because of the free-trade agreement between the three countries, Canada charges relatively few tariffs on American goods, so reciprocal tariffs from Washington would be similarly limited. The tariffs Canada does impose are mostly on dairy, poultry and eggs.

On Tuesday, new levies on goods imported from Mexico, Canada and China went into effect, according to executive orders issued by the Trump administration.

All products coming from China are subject to a 20 percent tax, up from 10 percent.

All goods imported from Mexico and most goods from Canada are subject to a 25 percent tariff. These tariffs were originally set to take effect at the start of February, but Mr. Trump delayed them by a month.

Canadian energy products will face a lower 10 percent tariff.

While Mr. Trump acknowledged in February that his new tariffs could cause “some pain,” he has insisted that they will not substantially increase prices for Americans and that foreign countries will bear the brunt.

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, the White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, said the effect of tariffs on consumer prices would be relatively “small,” given the administration’s simultaneous plans to deregulate industry, reduce the size of the federal government and expand energy production.

But trading data and economic studies suggest that consumers in the United States will probably see higher prices on a wide range of products, from vegetables and meat to cellphones and cars. While some companies may opt against passing on the cost of the tariff, many are likely to raise prices on their products.

“Because of the combination of these three countries, it’s going to be difficult to go down an aisle of a grocery store and not see some sort of inflationary effect,” said Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.

What should shoppers expect in the grocery aisles?

Fresh produce, much of which is imported from Mexico, is one of the first categories where shoppers might notice an uptick in prices. It could happen within a couple of weeks after the tariffs on Mexican goods take effect. These items, including avocados, tomatoes and strawberries, have a short shelf life. Grocery stores lack substantial inventory, meaning that consumers will quickly find produce that is subject to Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

Price increases are poised to hit liquor aisles, too, especially beer and tequila. In 2023, nearly three-quarters of U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico consisted of vegetables, fruit, beverages and distilled spirits, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The United States also imports a range of agricultural products from Canada, including meat and grains. Mr. Trump’s 25 percent tariff on most imports from its northern neighbor could push up retail prices for beef, if grocery stores pass the costs on to consumers. Maple syrup could also become more expensive. Canada accounts for roughly 70 percent of global maple syrup production, and in 2023, more than 60 percent of its maple exports went to the United States, according to data from the Canadian government.

This added burden comes as many Americans have already been experiencing sticker shock at their supermarkets. Data from the Labor Department showed that in January, grocery prices — which had been relatively flat in late 2023 and early 2024 — rose again, led by the price of eggs.

Could car prices increase, too?

Yes, the tariffs are widely expected to raise the prices that American consumers pay for new automobiles. That’s because auto manufacturers ship tens of billions of dollars’ worth of finished vehicles, as well as engines, transmissions and other components, each week across the U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico. Billions of dollars more are imported from parts manufacturers in China.

New cars and trucks are already selling at near-record prices. Mr. Trump’s tariffs could add to the challenges for consumers looking to buy a car.

General Motors, the largest U.S. automaker, will probably feel the impact of the tariffs more acutely than some other automakers. G.M. plants in Canada and Mexico produced nearly 40 percent of all vehicles the company made last year in North America. The effect could also fall heavily on car companies already facing financial trouble, including Nissan and Stellantis.

But how tariffs will affect car prices will probably be more varied compared with food, said Mr. Miller of Michigan State University. Vehicles assembled in states including Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana tend to rely heavily on auto parts imported from Canada, he said, which is not the case across the board.

“There’s just a lot more complexity to understanding increases in prices that consumers could eventually see,” Mr. Miller said.

What other products might be affected?

U.S. drivers, particularly in the Midwest, may see higher prices at the pump. Mr. Trump’s 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy is not as steep as he initially indicated it would be, and it’s lower than tariffs on other Canadian goods. But the tax nevertheless threatens to disrupt the U.S. oil and gas industry, which is highly dependent on Canadian oil. Roughly 60 percent of the oil that the U.S. imports comes from Canada.

Analysts expect the additional costs to be borne by a combination of oil producers in Canada and Mexico, U.S. refineries, and American consumers. How the tariffs ripple through the market will depend partly on how long they remain in place.

Consumer electronics — among the top goods imported into the United States from China last year — could also get more expensive. From cellphones and computers to video games, shoppers could see prices start to rise within a couple of months.

Another product likely to be affected is lumber, about 30 percent of which is imported from Canada. Tariffs on softwood lumber could raise the cost of building houses, which risks worsening the housing affordability crisis that is already weighing on millions of American families. More than 70 percent of the imports of two essential materials that home builders rely on — softwood lumber and gypsum, which is used for drywall — come from Canada and Mexico, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

“Tariffs on lumber and other building materials increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices,” Carl Harris, the chairman of the association, said in a statement last month, before Mr. Trump delayed his tariffs on Canada.

On top of the broad tariffs on Canadian imports, Mr. Trump on Saturday initiated an investigation into whether imports of lumber, specifically, threaten America’s national security.

How quickly could prices go up?

That depends on the product. Consumers could see a swift increase in prices for nondurable goods, including groceries. But it could take longer for prices to rise for durable goods, like cars, thanks to existing inventory, or if companies expect the tariffs to be temporary, said Felix Tintelnot, an associate professor of economics at Duke University.

How quickly firms are willing and able to raise their prices remains to be seen, said Peter Simon, an economics professor at Northeastern University. While some price increases may represent a legitimate response to rising costs for businesses, there is also the risk of opportunistic pricing, meaning companies may use tariffs as an excuse to raise prices more than necessary, Mr. Simon said.

What about across-the-board inflation?

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said that if Mr. Trump proceeds with across-the-board tariffs, it will both raise prices in the United States and slow economic growth. Most economists expect that the fresh trade barriers could lead to a temporary burst of higher inflation.

Inflation has eased back down toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target after the central bank raised interest rates aggressively in recent years and kept them at high levels. But the Fed remains alert to anything that could stall progress toward that goal — including Mr. Trump’s tariffs.