9 months ago
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Analyst Markus Thielen draws attention to the correlation between US presidential election cycles and Bitcoin halving years, which have historically been bullish for BTC price.
Bitcoin price showed quite a muted response to the BTC ETF approvals last month. Recently, BTC price has been consolidating around $43,000 levels with no clear direction of movement for now. However, market analysts continue to be bullish for Bitcoin moving ahead in 2024. Markus Thielen from 10x Research expects BTC price to rally another 65% from the current levels by the year’s end. Thus, as per Thielen, the Bitcoin price can touch $70,000 this year while challenging its previous all-time high levels. In a report last Friday, Thielen wrote:
“Supported by the macro environment, monetary tailwinds, the U.S. election cycle, and gradually increasing demand from TradFi investors allocating to bitcoin ETFs, a bitcoin rally to $70,000 appears plausible.”
Thielen highlights the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s performance, noting that while Bitcoin has seen positive returns in 10 out of its 13 years of existence, January returns have been more varied, with seven up years and six down years.
A year ago, Thielen accurately forecasted Bitcoin’s nearly doubling to $45,000 by the end of 2023. Despite his January prediction for spot ETFs not winning approval, Thielen anticipated a price retreat to the mid-high $30,000 range this January.
Thielen’s analysis points to factors such as the Federal Reserve’s delay in rate cuts, lower inflation rates, and sustained economic growth. He also draws attention to the historical correlation between US presidential election cycles and Bitcoin halving years, which have historically been bullish for Bitcoin price. Specifically, Bitcoin experienced significant gains of 152% in 2012, 121% in 2016, and 302% in 2020, averaging 192%.
Bitcoin A ‘Substitution’ for Gold?
According to Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly assuming the role of gold as a store of value. In a recent YouTube update, Wood expressed her view that the leading cryptocurrency is functioning more as a risk-off asset and a safe haven during periods of economic instability. Wood said:
“Last year, during the regional bank crisis in March, Bitcoin shot up 40% as the KRE, the regional bank index, was imploding. And here again, the regional bank index is acting up, and after a little bit of a correction after 11 ETFs were introduced, we are seeing Bitcoin catch a bid again.”
Wood presents a chart depicting Bitcoin priced in gold, illustrating a robust, long-term uptrend. She suggests that this trend indicates Bitcoin’s gradual displacement of gold as a store of value asset.
Photo: Ark Invest
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