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While historical data and current market sentiments suggest that BTC will likely rally after the halving event, other analysts have cautioned inventors against relying on past performance to forecast future price movements.
As March gradually comes to a close, Markus Thielen, a senior analyst at 10x Research, has shared his insights on potential Bitcoin behavior for the upcoming month.
According to a recent social media post on X, the top crypto analyst said that Bitcoin (BTC) has had a massive rally of seven consecutive months and could continue in the trajectory to rally 12% from the current price of $70,000 to $84,000 in April.
Bitcoin’s Historical April Performance
Thielen noted that April could be a particularly favorable month for BTC, especially with the industry anticipating Bitcoin halving 2024 to occur within the month.
Referencing historical patterns, the analyst said that the month April has the tendency to deliver positive returns for Bitcoin, with six out of the last ten years experiencing significant price increases.
Bitcoin tends to rally +12% in April – read more here: https://t.co/DWABLhfinw
April tends to be a relatively strong month for Bitcoin, with six out of the last ten showing positive returns, with average returns of +12%. The probability of another strong month is relatively… pic.twitter.com/P6hp5BgGYZ
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) March 29, 2024
This historical data aligns with BTC past performance after previous halving events. For example, the crypto asset jumped over 30% in the first few months that followed 2020 halving before recording an all-time high of nearly $70,000 in 2021.
Thielen suggested that BTC could follow the same pattern of previous performance to soar 12% come next month. The analyst predicted that with this historical pattern, the upcoming halving could be a significant catalyst for another bullish rally, potentially driving the price to new all-time highs.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Interest
In addition to the historical data, market sentiment also seems to be another factor that could potentially drive the rally, with several indicators pointing towards a positive outlook for BTC.
The recent introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, bringing an influx of institutional investors into the industry, has added legitimacy to the crypto asset as a store of value and a hedge against inflation.
Industry executives like Matthew Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer said in a recent memo distributed to industry professionals that investors could potentially invest as much as $1 trillion into BTC through ETFs as they start to enter the crypto market.
Apart from the ETFs, financial companies are also entering the market. Banks such as HSBC are also entering the crypto market, bringing a range of real-world assets (RWA) onto blockchains. The financial institution recently launched its tokenized gold token dubbed HSBC Gold Token for retail investors.
Additionally, the growing interest in Bitcoin futures and options markets indicates that institutional investors are increasingly looking to hedge their positions and take advantage of potential price movements.
While historical data and current market sentiments suggest that BTC will likely rally after the halving event, other analysts have cautioned inventors against relying on past performance to forecast future price movements.
